Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
-
I guess the downside to magic 8 balls is that the answers would actually be random and you can't really seed them to say what you want them to like you can with AI agents
@gbargoud I mean, you keep shaking until you get the result you want. Not unlike Gallup’s existing methodology, really.
-
Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
@octothorpe jumping Jackrabbits, that sounds stupid.
-
@octothorpe jumping Jackrabbits, that sounds stupid.
-
@weyoun6 yeah, their methodologies can be roughly described as ‘numberwang’.
-
Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
@octothorpe hahahaha.... Wait, they're serious?! HAHAHHAHAHAHAHA
-
Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
-
Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
@octothorpe
Why not just go completely fraudulent and have the ratings based on how much the politicians are willing to pay?
-
Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
@octothorpe @JonChevreau This is bad. No matter what we think of AI slop, actual human driven chaos is worse. That is why there is not modeling it…
-
Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
"Due to cost reasons" has gotta be a forward-looking statement translating as "we're afraid to be sued or regulated out of business by you-know-who" if we publish polls about you-know-who.
-
@gbargoud outlook not so good!
@octothorpe @gbargoud Isn't that what one of the pilots on the recent moon mission said?
-
Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
@octothorpe I expected a venerable polling company at least, unlike the rest of the modern world, to understand the fundamental implications of basic statistical sampling methods on data validity. Alas.
-
Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
»Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers«
What #Gallup says instead:
»Simulated responses will not be used to produce Gallup’s published population estimates, and they will not replace direct measurement of people in our tracking research. […] We will always be transparent about our use of simulated responses and will never present them as human responses.«
From the linked text.The critical point is…
1/2
-
»Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers«
What #Gallup says instead:
»Simulated responses will not be used to produce Gallup’s published population estimates, and they will not replace direct measurement of people in our tracking research. […] We will always be transparent about our use of simulated responses and will never present them as human responses.«
From the linked text.The critical point is…
1/2
…that they plan to filter research:
»Simulated approaches may also expand what is practically researchable, enabling organizations to explore attitudinal questions at a scale or speed that would otherwise be prohibitive, to model responses among hard-to-reach populations, or to test how different groups might react to novel stimuli before investing in full-scale data collection. In short, agent banks may help researchers and practitioners anticipate likely outcomes and support decision-making.« -
Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
-
@noodlemaz thanks!
-
@octothorpe I expected a venerable polling company at least, unlike the rest of the modern world, to understand the fundamental implications of basic statistical sampling methods on data validity. Alas.
@d_rift they have a lot of name recognition but often their methodologies are questionable, allowing the sponsor of the study to kinda numberwang the results they want to promote.
-
@d_rift they have a lot of name recognition but often their methodologies are questionable, allowing the sponsor of the study to kinda numberwang the results they want to promote.
@octothorpe still; thanks for the heads-up on them moving from numberwang to "no number, all wang" territory.
️