<![CDATA[Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:]]>Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:

February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers

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Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses

Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.

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Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/topic/ccf370ea-72d5-4891-9aa7-44de28c23b59/welp-gallup-is-no-longer-a-source-of-viable-anything-let-along-survey-dataRSS for NodeFri, 15 May 2026 10:23:41 GMTTue, 12 May 2026 23:28:26 GMT60<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 06:56:13 GMT]]>@octothorpe still; thanks for the heads-up on them moving from numberwang to "no number, all wang" territory.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://beige.party/users/d_rift/statuses/116565958583538652https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://beige.party/users/d_rift/statuses/116565958583538652Wed, 13 May 2026 06:56:13 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 06:46:44 GMT]]>@d_rift they have a lot of name recognition but often their methodologies are questionable, allowing the sponsor of the study to kinda numberwang the results they want to promote.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116565921293880239https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116565921293880239Wed, 13 May 2026 06:46:44 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 06:44:58 GMT]]>@noodlemaz thanks!

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116565914296289348https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116565914296289348Wed, 13 May 2026 06:44:58 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 06:17:09 GMT]]>@octothorpe 🤦‍♀️

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/ariaflame/statuses/116565804934928275https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/ariaflame/statuses/116565804934928275Wed, 13 May 2026 06:17:09 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 05:44:37 GMT]]>…that they plan to filter research:
»Simulated approaches may also expand what is practically researchable, enabling organizations to explore attitudinal questions at a scale or speed that would otherwise be prohibitive, to model responses among hard-to-reach populations, or to test how different groups might react to novel stimuli before investing in full-scale data collection. In short, agent banks may help researchers and practitioners anticipate likely outcomes and support decision-making.«

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mstdn.social/users/stekopf/statuses/116565677040930496https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mstdn.social/users/stekopf/statuses/116565677040930496Wed, 13 May 2026 05:44:37 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 05:44:16 GMT]]>@octothorpe

»Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers«

What says instead:
»Simulated responses will not be used to produce Gallup’s published population estimates, and they will not replace direct measurement of people in our tracking research. […] We will always be transparent about our use of simulated responses and will never present them as human responses.«
From the linked text.

The critical point is…

1/2

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mstdn.social/users/stekopf/statuses/116565675632425418https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mstdn.social/users/stekopf/statuses/116565675632425418Wed, 13 May 2026 05:44:16 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 05:31:13 GMT]]>@octothorpe I expected a venerable polling company at least, unlike the rest of the modern world, to understand the fundamental implications of basic statistical sampling methods on data validity. Alas.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://beige.party/users/d_rift/statuses/116565624308723401https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://beige.party/users/d_rift/statuses/116565624308723401Wed, 13 May 2026 05:31:13 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 05:13:18 GMT]]>@octothorpe @gbargoud Isn't that what one of the pilots on the recent moon mission said?

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://beige.party/users/mast0d0nphan/statuses/116565553895638560https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://beige.party/users/mast0d0nphan/statuses/116565553895638560Wed, 13 May 2026 05:13:18 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 04:30:14 GMT]]>"Due to cost reasons" has gotta be a forward-looking statement translating as "we're afraid to be sued or regulated out of business by you-know-who" if we publish polls about you-know-who.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/oliver_schafeld/statuses/116565384513439611https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/oliver_schafeld/statuses/116565384513439611Wed, 13 May 2026 04:30:14 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 04:00:22 GMT]]>@octothorpe @JonChevreau This is bad. No matter what we think of AI slop, actual human driven chaos is worse. That is why there is not modeling it…

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mstdn.social/users/mildpeach/statuses/116565267091422584https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mstdn.social/users/mildpeach/statuses/116565267091422584Wed, 13 May 2026 04:00:22 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 03:40:40 GMT]]>@octothorpe
Why not just go completely fraudulent and have the ratings based on how much the politicians are willing to pay? 🤷

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://beige.party/users/Nerde/statuses/116565189595222034https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://beige.party/users/Nerde/statuses/116565189595222034Wed, 13 May 2026 03:40:40 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 03:14:44 GMT]]>@octothorpe

A moment!

We'll have simulated voters next! 👎

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://c.im/users/nickrauchen/statuses/116565087634606531https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://c.im/users/nickrauchen/statuses/116565087634606531Wed, 13 May 2026 03:14:44 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 02:51:07 GMT]]>@octothorpe hahahaha.... Wait, they're serious?! HAHAHHAHAHAHAHA

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.social/users/mimblewimble/statuses/116564994763848086https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.social/users/mimblewimble/statuses/116564994763848086Wed, 13 May 2026 02:51:07 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 02:23:33 GMT]]>@weyoun6 yeah, their methodologies can be roughly described as ‘numberwang’.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116564886412277542https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116564886412277542Wed, 13 May 2026 02:23:33 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 02:12:07 GMT]]>@SeismoAllegra yep!

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116564841408787628https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116564841408787628Wed, 13 May 2026 02:12:07 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 02:10:44 GMT]]>@octothorpe jumping Jackrabbits, that sounds stupid.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.social/users/SeismoAllegra/statuses/116564836014893281https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.social/users/SeismoAllegra/statuses/116564836014893281Wed, 13 May 2026 02:10:44 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 02:09:36 GMT]]>@gbargoud I mean, you keep shaking until you get the result you want. Not unlike Gallup’s existing methodology, really.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116564831503849806https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116564831503849806Wed, 13 May 2026 02:09:36 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 02:07:48 GMT]]>@octothorpe

I guess the downside to magic 8 balls is that the answers would actually be random and you can't really seed them to say what you want them to like you can with AI agents

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.nyc/users/gbargoud/statuses/116564824431164620https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.nyc/users/gbargoud/statuses/116564824431164620Wed, 13 May 2026 02:07:48 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 02:06:20 GMT]]>@gbargoud outlook not so good!

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116564818686876915https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116564818686876915Wed, 13 May 2026 02:06:20 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 02:04:06 GMT]]>@octothorpe

A bunch of magic 8 balls would be even cheaper

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.nyc/users/gbargoud/statuses/116564809930035281https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.nyc/users/gbargoud/statuses/116564809930035281Wed, 13 May 2026 02:04:06 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 01:37:38 GMT]]>@octothorpe I knew there was a reason to not trust polls. 😉

Honestly, their only benefit is when used to study markets to figure out how to tweak marketing or services.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.social/users/CStamp/statuses/116564705830909817https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.social/users/CStamp/statuses/116564705830909817Wed, 13 May 2026 01:37:38 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 00:36:21 GMT]]>@octothorpe

Next, AI voters replace unpredictable human citizens.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/mastodonmigration/statuses/116564464893327623https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/mastodonmigration/statuses/116564464893327623Wed, 13 May 2026 00:36:21 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 00:18:42 GMT]]>@mloxton it is indeed! Even dumber than acid wash jeans.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116564395442487038https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.online/users/octothorpe/statuses/116564395442487038Wed, 13 May 2026 00:18:42 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data: on Wed, 13 May 2026 00:17:43 GMT]]>@octothorpe
That is the dumbest idea I've heard all week, and there have been some real clangers of late

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://zeroes.ca/ap/users/116358574224542843/statuses/116564391564032008https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://zeroes.ca/ap/users/116358574224542843/statuses/116564391564032008Wed, 13 May 2026 00:17:43 GMT