Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
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@CStamp Their data was always a bit questionable, but popular (ahem). Now they’re exploring ‘what if we just totally made shit up?’
@octothorpe I knew there was a reason to not trust polls.
Honestly, their only benefit is when used to study markets to figure out how to tweak marketing or services.
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Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
A bunch of magic 8 balls would be even cheaper
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A bunch of magic 8 balls would be even cheaper
@gbargoud outlook not so good!
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@gbargoud outlook not so good!
I guess the downside to magic 8 balls is that the answers would actually be random and you can't really seed them to say what you want them to like you can with AI agents
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R relay@relay.mycrowd.ca shared this topic
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I guess the downside to magic 8 balls is that the answers would actually be random and you can't really seed them to say what you want them to like you can with AI agents
@gbargoud I mean, you keep shaking until you get the result you want. Not unlike Gallup’s existing methodology, really.
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Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
@octothorpe jumping Jackrabbits, that sounds stupid.
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@octothorpe jumping Jackrabbits, that sounds stupid.
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@weyoun6 yeah, their methodologies can be roughly described as ‘numberwang’.
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Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
@octothorpe hahahaha.... Wait, they're serious?! HAHAHHAHAHAHAHA
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Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
-
Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
@octothorpe
Why not just go completely fraudulent and have the ratings based on how much the politicians are willing to pay?
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Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
@octothorpe @JonChevreau This is bad. No matter what we think of AI slop, actual human driven chaos is worse. That is why there is not modeling it…
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Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
"Due to cost reasons" has gotta be a forward-looking statement translating as "we're afraid to be sued or regulated out of business by you-know-who" if we publish polls about you-know-who.
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@gbargoud outlook not so good!
@octothorpe @gbargoud Isn't that what one of the pilots on the recent moon mission said?
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Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
@octothorpe I expected a venerable polling company at least, unlike the rest of the modern world, to understand the fundamental implications of basic statistical sampling methods on data validity. Alas.
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Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
»Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers«
What #Gallup says instead:
»Simulated responses will not be used to produce Gallup’s published population estimates, and they will not replace direct measurement of people in our tracking research. […] We will always be transparent about our use of simulated responses and will never present them as human responses.«
From the linked text.The critical point is…
1/2
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»Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers«
What #Gallup says instead:
»Simulated responses will not be used to produce Gallup’s published population estimates, and they will not replace direct measurement of people in our tracking research. […] We will always be transparent about our use of simulated responses and will never present them as human responses.«
From the linked text.The critical point is…
1/2
…that they plan to filter research:
»Simulated approaches may also expand what is practically researchable, enabling organizations to explore attitudinal questions at a scale or speed that would otherwise be prohibitive, to model responses among hard-to-reach populations, or to test how different groups might react to novel stimuli before investing in full-scale data collection. In short, agent banks may help researchers and practitioners anticipate likely outcomes and support decision-making.« -
Welp, Gallup is no longer a source of viable anything, let along survey data:
February: Gallup says that due to cost reasons it will no longer do presidential approval polling
May: Gallup says it is exploring "digital twin" technology that replaces human respondents with AI/LLM-generated answers
Gallup Begins Research on Simulated Responses
Gallup is exploring whether AI-generated agents perform well in predicting people's responses and where they fall short.
Gallup.com (news.gallup.com)
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@noodlemaz thanks!
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@octothorpe I expected a venerable polling company at least, unlike the rest of the modern world, to understand the fundamental implications of basic statistical sampling methods on data validity. Alas.
@d_rift they have a lot of name recognition but often their methodologies are questionable, allowing the sponsor of the study to kinda numberwang the results they want to promote.
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