OpenAI has a negative 122% operating margin and growth of usage has stopped.

[cybeej@infosec.exchange]

@Azuaron @shtrom @GossiTheDog my over-under with my bestie is November. We’ve a fancy steak dinner riding on it. Remarkably just last week he admitted that’s it’s gonna pop, but he estimates Q1 ‘27 after Q4 numbers are cooked/announced.

[npars01@mstdn.social]

@shtrom @Azuaron @GossiTheDog

The last time petrostate despots & oil oligarchs laundered their cash via Deutsche Bank, private equity, & the housing market.

This time they're laundering their cash through US tech.

In any other situation, the C-suite would be swiftly turfed out, but Zuckerberg is still in charge at Meta, despite losing $77 billion on the Metaverse.

In the AI situation, the same insane losses & the same retention of money-losing executives. Odd.

Circular Finance Fraud.

[casandro@f-ckendehoelle.de]

@fencepost @GossiTheDog Yeah, that's why nobody is actually building factory capacity.

[richrants@toot.community]

@dirkhh Oh, if they moved from IFRS to AIFRS (which I just invented, stroke of genius, will need to start this as a side hustle) that’d be easy. They can just activate all the data they … found … as “Fair Use Data Inventory” at arbitrary valuation. Also, model training is not expensed, it’s an asset called “Capitalised Weights & Biases” (amortised over 99 years). And whatever they pay for compute = Deferred Compute Debt. Makes the numbers look so much better.

@scottmichaud @GossiTheDog

[1337@techhub.social]

@scottmichaud @dirkhh @GossiTheDog These companies are classifying training as CapEx instead of what it actually is, OpEx. Ed Zitron talks about this a lot. He thinks once the AI-only companies go public (OpenAI and Anthropic), their stocks will crash because they won't be able to get away with their accounting tricks as easily. I'm personally not sure. Investors and execs seem to be going through a sort of AI psychosis, and these companies are in bed with politicians and regulators.

[su_liam@mas.to]

@Npars01 @shtrom @Azuaron @GossiTheDog “So Big They Must Fail”
Anyone who even suggests an AI bail-out needs to leave Congress in tar and feathers.

[andres4ny@social.ridetrans.it]

@shtrom @GossiTheDog Seriously. I had flood damage to some computers yesterday so I need to get some new hardware.. and I ain't paying these ridiculous prices.

[david_chisnall@infosec.exchange]

@shtrom @Azuaron @GossiTheDog

IPOs won’t be when all of the shares go on the market. The early investors may add theirs to the pile, but usually they won’t sell all of them early because doing so would crash the stock price. The goal when you’re running a scam company is to IPO at a decent price that goes up a bit, then sell your shares slowly, at just below the quantity that there are buyers for, which keeps pushing the price up until you’ve offloaded them.

It’s easier to cook the books for one filing than to do so over a series, so you want to do this quite quickly before it’s obvious that the company’s fundamentals are terrible.

All of that said, sometimes companies crash when they IPO. Release the shares and watch the price plummet. If this happens, the early investors need to either dump their stock and get something back, or hold it in the hope that it will recover. That can be the thing that precipitates a bubble bursting.

[ligasser@social.epfl.ch]

@GossiTheDog I thought it's more like a negative 1'000% margin. So I'm actually quite surprised and think this might just fly.

[david_chisnall@infosec.exchange]

@GossiTheDog

So, you’re saying it’s good news: their losses are not going to keep increasing?

[ptl@tooting.ch]

@pl @GossiTheDog yeah +122% more ads
More ads than content !!!
Yeahh

[gabrielesvelto@mas.to]

@su_liam @Npars01 @shtrom @Azuaron @GossiTheDog too big to bail

[mavu@mastodon.social]

@Azuaron @shtrom @GossiTheDog didnt i read just yesterday speculation somewhere that they might surprise ipo this Friday?

[endlessmason@hachyderm.io]

@shtrom @GossiTheDog
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bw9CALKOvAI

[endrift@social.treehouse.systems]

@GossiTheDog @rmondello been saying for weeks that OpenAI is gonna implode before the end of the year. Wish I could say the same looked true for Anthropic and the Gemini business unit, but maybe I just need to wait for the first domino to fall.

[hannorein@mastodon.social]

@GossiTheDog ok, hear me out. I think I found a way to make infinite money! What if they spent the $1.22 on more OpenAI credits!? Then they’d create an extra $1.22 revenue. Which they can spend on another $1.49 of OpenAI credits. And so on. Result: ♾️

[lightfighter@infosec.exchange]

@GossiTheDog You have to figure these are the absolute best numbers they could manipulate. The truth is probably far worse.

[valpackett@social.treehouse.systems]

@scottmichaud @GossiTheDog maybe that metric doesn't take total spend / subsidies into account at all???

like for every dollar of revenue, the actual cost of delivering the exact amount of service the dollar was billed for was 1.22

but that would say nothing about the cost of the service performed for free

because otherwise yeah how do you reconcile just -122℅ with the FUCKING BONKERS % increases from the github copilot billing previews?!

[geonz@mathstodon.xyz]

@starluna @GossiTheDog I also wonder about that percent margin.

[isurandil@mastodon.online]

@GossiTheDog AI Native Ads soon coming to you.

"Hey, Chattie, how can I get rid of limescale?"

Before: "You can clean limescale with citric acid."

After: "Best limescale removal can only be achieved with CiT-X. Do you want me to order it now? There is a 20% discount if you order this through me."