New study by the National Bureau of Economic Research: A survey of 6000 CFOs, CEOS throughout US, Europe, UK and Australia comes to the conclusion that businesses predict that "AI" will improve productivity by a whopping 1.4%.
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@tante The current purpose of AI goes beyond economics.
@Amorpheus @tante That may very well be, but it is much harder to measure.
This result alone is the nail on the coffin of scaling, because in order to offset the investment frenzy, not even ~10% net gains would be enough. And there is not even a *hint* that this'd be true for edge cases such as coding where arguably one could *assume* some real gains to be found.
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@tante Does this include the 100% productivity gains that electricity companies will have due to AI?
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@Amorpheus @tante That may very well be, but it is much harder to measure.
This result alone is the nail on the coffin of scaling, because in order to offset the investment frenzy, not even ~10% net gains would be enough. And there is not even a *hint* that this'd be true for edge cases such as coding where arguably one could *assume* some real gains to be found.
@ftranschel @tante Yet knowing that ai is not profitable enough to legitimize the effort, they all continue their agenda. I wonder why.
Are they stupid or do they see revenue where the market does not?
Now this is just a thought, not a conviction...
If the current ai hype proceeds, it will become an unvaluable tool for worldwide surveilance and oppression.
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@ftranschel @tante Yet knowing that ai is not profitable enough to legitimize the effort, they all continue their agenda. I wonder why.
Are they stupid or do they see revenue where the market does not?
Now this is just a thought, not a conviction...
If the current ai hype proceeds, it will become an unvaluable tool for worldwide surveilance and oppression.
Conspiracies aside: In a bubble market, it *is* possible to transfer wealth even if there is *none* in the long run.
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New study by the National Bureau of Economic Research: A survey of 6000 CFOs, CEOS throughout US, Europe, UK and Australia comes to the conclusion that businesses predict that "AI" will improve productivity by a whopping 1.4%. Truly earth shattering.
Firm Data on AI
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
NBER (www.nber.org)
@tante And yet "Despite $30–40 billion in enterprise investment into GenAI, this report uncovers a surprising result in that 95% of organizations are getting zero return." From an MIT study on the outcome of AI projects. https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf
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New study by the National Bureau of Economic Research: A survey of 6000 CFOs, CEOS throughout US, Europe, UK and Australia comes to the conclusion that businesses predict that "AI" will improve productivity by a whopping 1.4%. Truly earth shattering.
Firm Data on AI
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
NBER (www.nber.org)
@tante I guess this already small increase mostly comes from people working longer working hours now because of the bosses' high expectations when introducing "#AI" tools.
Also see this related news: https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/09/the-first-signs-of-burnout-are-coming-from-the-people-who-embrace-ai-the-most/
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@tante I guess this already small increase mostly comes from people working longer working hours now because of the bosses' high expectations when introducing "#AI" tools.
Also see this related news: https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/09/the-first-signs-of-burnout-are-coming-from-the-people-who-embrace-ai-the-most/
@Rainer_Rehak Might be. Right now about half is just "firing people" (which then gets the rest to do what you described) and the hope for very marginal output increases.
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@q you can check out the results and comments. What do you think the researchers did wrong? Did the CEOs lie?
@tante @q this. It's a survey that asked for their opinions (partially). The CEOs and CFOs and other C-suite execs in these surveys surely have no clue what's going on in the daily life of their employees who have to actually work with all the AI stuff. The C-level guys don't even read their own email but have staff summarising them in PowerPoint's. So I'd say the data basis is very thin here...
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@tante @q this. It's a survey that asked for their opinions (partially). The CEOs and CFOs and other C-suite execs in these surveys surely have no clue what's going on in the daily life of their employees who have to actually work with all the AI stuff. The C-level guys don't even read their own email but have staff summarising them in PowerPoint's. So I'd say the data basis is very thin here...
@maxheadroom @q they do know (at least for the last years) the numbers: How much OpEx and CapEx are there in contrast to revenue. So They can pretty accurately say what happened in the past without knowing who works how
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@maxheadroom @q they do know (at least for the last years) the numbers: How much OpEx and CapEx are there in contrast to revenue. So They can pretty accurately say what happened in the past without knowing who works how
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New study by the National Bureau of Economic Research: A survey of 6000 CFOs, CEOS throughout US, Europe, UK and Australia comes to the conclusion that businesses predict that "AI" will improve productivity by a whopping 1.4%. Truly earth shattering.
Firm Data on AI
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
NBER (www.nber.org)
@tante I'm not really sure why, but the abstract calls this a sizable impact?
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New study by the National Bureau of Economic Research: A survey of 6000 CFOs, CEOS throughout US, Europe, UK and Australia comes to the conclusion that businesses predict that "AI" will improve productivity by a whopping 1.4%. Truly earth shattering.
Firm Data on AI
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
NBER (www.nber.org)
@tante
.....at a cost of 
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Conspiracies aside: In a bubble market, it *is* possible to transfer wealth even if there is *none* in the long run.
Petrostate dictators are getting their cash out before a fossil fuel phase out.
Like a drug cartel using banks, Silicon Valley gets a cut off the top for projects & data centers that will never be completed.
The goal is to launder cash as fast as possible.
https://airmail.news/issues/2025-4-5/the-view-from-here1/
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Petrostate dictators are getting their cash out before a fossil fuel phase out.
Like a drug cartel using banks, Silicon Valley gets a cut off the top for projects & data centers that will never be completed.
The goal is to launder cash as fast as possible.
https://airmail.news/issues/2025-4-5/the-view-from-here1/
2/
Balkan & Italian mafiosos used movies & casinos to launder cash.
Russian & Hong Kong oligarchs used the real estate markets to launder their looting.
Saudi Arabia is using AI & tech startups.
Money laundering plays a key role in every part of the illegal drugs industry – here’s how it works
To curb the illicit drugs trade, law enforcement should look beyond individual drug busts and focus on capturing the illegal money that reaches so many parts of the global economy.
The Conversation (theconversation.com)
‘It’s a complete black box’: Russian oligarchs pour money into U.S. real estate market
As President Joe Biden vows to punish Russia with financial sanctions by seizing yachts, mansions and other assets, members of the real estate community and
NBC News (www.nbcnews.com)
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New study by the National Bureau of Economic Research: A survey of 6000 CFOs, CEOS throughout US, Europe, UK and Australia comes to the conclusion that businesses predict that "AI" will improve productivity by a whopping 1.4%. Truly earth shattering.
Firm Data on AI
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
NBER (www.nber.org)
@tante I‘d like to see the same study but outlining the CO2 and wider environmental footprint from it.
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Oh and most companies report no productivity gains in the last 3 years but that cannot surprise anyone by now.
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@tante I remember all those headache inducing non sense conversations with directors, C-something dudes, managers when trying to define "software productivity". No one could agree and, despite all good sense and examples, they mostly stuck to the good old "productivity is how many lines of code are written and software is pushed to prod".
None of this includes meaningful software, quality code, user impact, etc. so yes spaghetti code generators will improve a certain definition of productivity
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