Well, well, well, Prof. Sam Lawler @sundogplanets have you seen this?
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"The company goes further, acknowledging that as more objects crowd LEO, “the probability of accidental collisions, fragmentation events, or other in-orbit incidents increases, which could result in the loss or degradation of our satellites, increased costs for collision avoidance maneuvers, or the need to replace or reposition assets on an accelerated schedule.”
more...
SpaceX S1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
2/
And the kicker...
"A worst-case scenario is flagged: a strike that could “trigger a cascading collision event that renders our licensed orbits, and potentially other orbits, unusable for an extended period."
SpaceX S1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
3/
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And the kicker...
"A worst-case scenario is flagged: a strike that could “trigger a cascading collision event that renders our licensed orbits, and potentially other orbits, unusable for an extended period."
SpaceX S1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
3/
@mastodonmigration
Kessler would like to have a chat with Elmo about his syndrome.
@sundogplanets -
Well, well, well, Prof. Sam Lawler @sundogplanets have you seen this?
Paulus (@PaulusMc70@mastodon.social)
SpaceX Quietly Admits to a Threat It Helped Create, and Can’t Stop https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/30/spacex-quietly-admits-to-a-threat-it-helped-create-and-cant-stop/
Mastodon (mastodon.social)
"Buried deep in SpaceX’s freshly filed IPO paperwork..."
"The pre-IPO disclosures lay it out cleanly. SpaceX warns that “the continued proliferation of satellite constellations in Low-Earth Orbit, as well as the risk of collisions with space debris or other spacecraft, could limit or impair our launch flexibility and satellite deployment.”
more...
1/
@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets
A meteor could make space the final frontier for humankind decades in the future.
If GPS were in any way disrupted because of Space junk just getting in the way of the signal those affect would probably shut down the global economy enlarge measure.
The modern economy has long stringy, thin and brittle supply chains strung out everywhere, everywhere around around the globe and in orbit.
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@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets The night skies will be awesome to look at for a year or two at least once The Great Cleanup starts.
We are clearly going to need a Starship that can refuel in orbit for The Great Cleanup
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Well, well, well, Prof. Sam Lawler @sundogplanets have you seen this?
Paulus (@PaulusMc70@mastodon.social)
SpaceX Quietly Admits to a Threat It Helped Create, and Can’t Stop https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/30/spacex-quietly-admits-to-a-threat-it-helped-create-and-cant-stop/
Mastodon (mastodon.social)
"Buried deep in SpaceX’s freshly filed IPO paperwork..."
"The pre-IPO disclosures lay it out cleanly. SpaceX warns that “the continued proliferation of satellite constellations in Low-Earth Orbit, as well as the risk of collisions with space debris or other spacecraft, could limit or impair our launch flexibility and satellite deployment.”
more...
1/
@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets
SpaceX has made similar statements before. What they imply is that satellite constellations by other operators may raise the risk of collisions and space debris, not their own.
They can use that argument to influence the FCC to block their competitor's systems.
The stmt about "cascading collision event that renders our licensed orbits unusable for an extended period” is in the context of natural disasters,, cyberattacks, etc.
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@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets
SpaceX has made similar statements before. What they imply is that satellite constellations by other operators may raise the risk of collisions and space debris, not their own.
They can use that argument to influence the FCC to block their competitor's systems.
The stmt about "cascading collision event that renders our licensed orbits unusable for an extended period” is in the context of natural disasters,, cyberattacks, etc.
Good points. Had not thought of using this rationale to pressure the FCC to block competitors. Nothing is surprising about these guys.
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And the kicker...
"A worst-case scenario is flagged: a strike that could “trigger a cascading collision event that renders our licensed orbits, and potentially other orbits, unusable for an extended period."
SpaceX S1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
3/
@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets So the excitement will be finding out what gets vapourised faster: the Starlink constellation, or the retirement savings of millions of Americans.
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Well, well, well, Prof. Sam Lawler @sundogplanets have you seen this?
Paulus (@PaulusMc70@mastodon.social)
SpaceX Quietly Admits to a Threat It Helped Create, and Can’t Stop https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/30/spacex-quietly-admits-to-a-threat-it-helped-create-and-cant-stop/
Mastodon (mastodon.social)
"Buried deep in SpaceX’s freshly filed IPO paperwork..."
"The pre-IPO disclosures lay it out cleanly. SpaceX warns that “the continued proliferation of satellite constellations in Low-Earth Orbit, as well as the risk of collisions with space debris or other spacecraft, could limit or impair our launch flexibility and satellite deployment.”
more...
1/
@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets
Well from the information available lately, humans in space is not a good long term goal. Going to Mars would not workout. Our kidneys don't like being in space. Our cluttered area around the low Earth orbit will make going to the moon or Mars impossible or very dangerous. -
@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets
SpaceX has made similar statements before. What they imply is that satellite constellations by other operators may raise the risk of collisions and space debris, not their own.
They can use that argument to influence the FCC to block their competitor's systems.
The stmt about "cascading collision event that renders our licensed orbits unusable for an extended period” is in the context of natural disasters,, cyberattacks, etc.
@AkaSci @mastodonmigration @sundogplanets AFAIK the FCC only control US businesses access to space. I understood that amongst others the Chinese also have plans...
Noting also that Starlink is the only profitable bit of SpaceX (launching rockets and being an also run AI company are not) but clearly their exponential growth of satellite telecom is not going to continue as near-earth orbit saturates, so SpaceX as a whole is clearly enormously overvalued and the IPO is just a scam to allow Musk to cash out at the expense of Musk groupies and your pension investments tied up in Index Funds.
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Well, well, well, Prof. Sam Lawler @sundogplanets have you seen this?
Paulus (@PaulusMc70@mastodon.social)
SpaceX Quietly Admits to a Threat It Helped Create, and Can’t Stop https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/30/spacex-quietly-admits-to-a-threat-it-helped-create-and-cant-stop/
Mastodon (mastodon.social)
"Buried deep in SpaceX’s freshly filed IPO paperwork..."
"The pre-IPO disclosures lay it out cleanly. SpaceX warns that “the continued proliferation of satellite constellations in Low-Earth Orbit, as well as the risk of collisions with space debris or other spacecraft, could limit or impair our launch flexibility and satellite deployment.”
more...
1/
@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets
Really, so there's a 'risk' Muskovite space junk will fall on our heads? No Way! Impossible!
"Oh, look, pretty Meteorites!"
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@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets So the excitement will be finding out what gets vapourised faster: the Starlink constellation, or the retirement savings of millions of Americans.
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@grumble209 @mastodonmigration @W6KME I've thought about trying to make simulations of what the night sky would look like after Kessler syndrome really gets going, but it's just too depressing.
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@mastodonmigration
Kessler would like to have a chat with Elmo about his syndrome.
@sundogplanets@alterelefant @mastodonmigration Dr. Kessler is actually still publishing (at least, as of a year ago) https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/305/SDC9-paper305.pdf
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And the kicker...
"A worst-case scenario is flagged: a strike that could “trigger a cascading collision event that renders our licensed orbits, and potentially other orbits, unusable for an extended period."
SpaceX S1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
3/
@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets
Doing things by the book. Now when launches become impossible due to Kessler Syndrome, and people try to sue them, the lawyers will just day "look, we told you about that part up front. That was the risk you gambled on".Smart lawyers.
And investors are going to throw a ton of money at them anyway. Where as if they didn't mention this, they could be in a lot of trouble with the FTC.
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@grumble209 @mastodonmigration @W6KME I've thought about trying to make simulations of what the night sky would look like after Kessler syndrome really gets going, but it's just too depressing.
@sundogplanets @grumble209 @mastodonmigration @W6KME
.... I hope you will do it anyway. -
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