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  3. IBM crashes because we’re gonna YOLO a replacement for banking and credit-card back-ends, replacing billions of lines of COBOL with vibe code.

IBM crashes because we’re gonna YOLO a replacement for banking and credit-card back-ends, replacing billions of lines of COBOL with vibe code.

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  • michaelormsby@mastodon.artM michaelormsby@mastodon.art

    @timbray I wonder if there are deeper issues not mentioned in the article? I have heard anecdotally that one of the problems of the COBOL culture is that the practitioners are literally dying off without fresh talent replacing them. Which leaves billions of lines of rock solid but terribly obscure and hard-to-maintain COBOL code. Not to mention the proprietary nature of the underlying hardware architecture.

    seindal@mastodon.unoS This user is from outside of this forum
    seindal@mastodon.unoS This user is from outside of this forum
    seindal@mastodon.uno
    wrote last edited by
    #20

    @michaelormsby @timbray

    The main probe with Cobol is that it takes at least three years just to get into Environment Division.

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    • zbrown@floss.socialZ zbrown@floss.social

      @worik @timbray there are plenty of real problems with COBOL, including how increasingly unviable it has become to maintain these code bases.

      The problem with the statement is the implication if not assertion that ‘AI’ is ‘a viable alternative’.

      M This user is from outside of this forum
      M This user is from outside of this forum
      mike805@noc.social
      wrote last edited by
      #21

      @zbrown @worik @timbray Last time they laid off all the COBOL programmers, Y2K happened and they had to go hat in hand to the retired people. A lot of older programmers got a serious upgrade to their retirement.

      The fact something lasted decades is good, not bad. If software is going to be infrastructure then it needs to be built like infrastructure.

      What are the AI vibe coders going to do when they have to maintain a code base and the AI model that "wrote" it is discontinued? 1/2

      M 1 Reply Last reply
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      • M mike805@noc.social

        @zbrown @worik @timbray Last time they laid off all the COBOL programmers, Y2K happened and they had to go hat in hand to the retired people. A lot of older programmers got a serious upgrade to their retirement.

        The fact something lasted decades is good, not bad. If software is going to be infrastructure then it needs to be built like infrastructure.

        What are the AI vibe coders going to do when they have to maintain a code base and the AI model that "wrote" it is discontinued? 1/2

        M This user is from outside of this forum
        M This user is from outside of this forum
        mike805@noc.social
        wrote last edited by
        #22

        @zbrown @worik @timbray Everyone is worried about programmers losing their jobs to AI. From what I am seeing (and I support both kinds of code) there is going to be lots of work for humans fixing what the AIs broke.

        One of the basic problems with this technological era is that production is automated and efficient. Repair is still a medieval craft. Look at current generation cars which are nearly unfixable if they get in an accident. AI is making programming like making cars. 2/2

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        • nlowell@zirk.usN nlowell@zirk.us

          @timbray

          What could possibly go wrong.

          I worked on those COBOL systems for much of my programming career. Made good living maintaining 60s and 70s spaghetti code (literally. the comments were all in Italian. I'm not kidding).

          Having AI guessing what the code might look like should give chills to everybody who uses money.

          andymoose@fedi.aiga.rocksA This user is from outside of this forum
          andymoose@fedi.aiga.rocksA This user is from outside of this forum
          andymoose@fedi.aiga.rocks
          wrote last edited by
          #23

          @nlowell @FknHannu @timbray What I want to know is how these models could possibly have been trained on enough COBOL to be even slightly correct. Are there mountains of public repos of COBOL I’m not aware of?

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          • timbray@cosocial.caT timbray@cosocial.ca

            IBM crashes because we’re gonna YOLO a replacement for banking and credit-card back-ends, replacing billions of lines of COBOL with vibe code. Uh…

            Link Preview Image
            IBM Crashes 11% as Anthropic Threatens COBOL Empire

            Anthropic's AI disrupts IBM's mainframe business, sending shares down 11% on threat

            favicon

            (www.techbuzz.ai)

            deadinside@but.still.drinkin.coffeeD This user is from outside of this forum
            deadinside@but.still.drinkin.coffeeD This user is from outside of this forum
            deadinside@but.still.drinkin.coffee
            wrote last edited by
            #24

            @timbray Yes. Let them.

            Do. It.

            1 Reply Last reply
            0
            • timbray@cosocial.caT timbray@cosocial.ca

              IBM crashes because we’re gonna YOLO a replacement for banking and credit-card back-ends, replacing billions of lines of COBOL with vibe code. Uh…

              Link Preview Image
              IBM Crashes 11% as Anthropic Threatens COBOL Empire

              Anthropic's AI disrupts IBM's mainframe business, sending shares down 11% on threat

              favicon

              (www.techbuzz.ai)

              dckc@social.coopD This user is from outside of this forum
              dckc@social.coopD This user is from outside of this forum
              dckc@social.coop
              wrote last edited by
              #25

              @timbray how many COBOL codebases have good test suites? I suspect none.

              How well do LLMs do without tests / types / guardrails?

              Best practice AFAIK is to run in parallel with prod. I guess they could try that, but it would take like a monthly billing cycle or a quarter to test one change.

              1 Reply Last reply
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              • timbray@cosocial.caT timbray@cosocial.ca

                IBM crashes because we’re gonna YOLO a replacement for banking and credit-card back-ends, replacing billions of lines of COBOL with vibe code. Uh…

                Link Preview Image
                IBM Crashes 11% as Anthropic Threatens COBOL Empire

                Anthropic's AI disrupts IBM's mainframe business, sending shares down 11% on threat

                favicon

                (www.techbuzz.ai)

                mainframed767@infosec.exchangeM This user is from outside of this forum
                mainframed767@infosec.exchangeM This user is from outside of this forum
                mainframed767@infosec.exchange
                wrote last edited by
                #26

                @timbray finally ending the shackles of evil big COBOL

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                • ibboard@hachyderm.ioI ibboard@hachyderm.io

                  @timbray "If Anthropic's Claude or other large language models can understand, maintain, modernize, or even replace COBOL systems…"

                  That "If" is doing a LOT of heavy lifting!

                  capeta@ursal.zoneC This user is from outside of this forum
                  capeta@ursal.zoneC This user is from outside of this forum
                  capeta@ursal.zone
                  wrote last edited by
                  #27

                  @ibboard @timbray Oh so that's what people meant when they said Artificial Intelligence is just a bunch of IF statements.

                  if it's able to """"""understand""""" the code
                  if it's able to maintain it
                  if it's able to modernize it
                  if it's able to replace it
                  if a bunch of other stuff it's not able to do
                  ...
                  and most important of all

                  if my grandma had wheels, she would've been a bike.

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                  • scruss@xoxo.zoneS scruss@xoxo.zone

                    @brooke @timbray
                    s/stock market/rich people's yacht money/g was never more true

                    changemewtf@mastodon.onlineC This user is from outside of this forum
                    changemewtf@mastodon.onlineC This user is from outside of this forum
                    changemewtf@mastodon.online
                    wrote last edited by
                    #28

                    @scruss @brooke @timbray

                    E.C.O.N.O.M.Y. — Estimated Count of Newly-Ordered Multimillionaire Yachts

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                    • timbray@cosocial.caT timbray@cosocial.ca

                      IBM crashes because we’re gonna YOLO a replacement for banking and credit-card back-ends, replacing billions of lines of COBOL with vibe code. Uh…

                      Link Preview Image
                      IBM Crashes 11% as Anthropic Threatens COBOL Empire

                      Anthropic's AI disrupts IBM's mainframe business, sending shares down 11% on threat

                      favicon

                      (www.techbuzz.ai)

                      cratermoon@zirk.usC This user is from outside of this forum
                      cratermoon@zirk.usC This user is from outside of this forum
                      cratermoon@zirk.us
                      wrote last edited by
                      #29

                      @timbray wtaf

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      0
                      • timbray@cosocial.caT timbray@cosocial.ca

                        IBM crashes because we’re gonna YOLO a replacement for banking and credit-card back-ends, replacing billions of lines of COBOL with vibe code. Uh…

                        Link Preview Image
                        IBM Crashes 11% as Anthropic Threatens COBOL Empire

                        Anthropic's AI disrupts IBM's mainframe business, sending shares down 11% on threat

                        favicon

                        (www.techbuzz.ai)

                        helge@mas.toH This user is from outside of this forum
                        helge@mas.toH This user is from outside of this forum
                        helge@mas.to
                        wrote last edited by
                        #30

                        @timbray I wonder how much of this is "now they are going to have to divert resources to deal with this nonsense" instead of it being a realistic competitor.

                        Kinda like, this DDoS of management attack will degrade their performance.

                        1 Reply Last reply
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                        • brooke@bikeshed.vibber.netB brooke@bikeshed.vibber.net

                          @timbray it's cool how facts don't matter in the stock market. it's just vibe finance

                          aristot73@infosec.exchangeA This user is from outside of this forum
                          aristot73@infosec.exchangeA This user is from outside of this forum
                          aristot73@infosec.exchange
                          wrote last edited by
                          #31

                          @brooke @timbray
                          vibe trading vs vibe coding 1-0

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          0
                          • timbray@cosocial.caT timbray@cosocial.ca

                            IBM crashes because we’re gonna YOLO a replacement for banking and credit-card back-ends, replacing billions of lines of COBOL with vibe code. Uh…

                            Link Preview Image
                            IBM Crashes 11% as Anthropic Threatens COBOL Empire

                            Anthropic's AI disrupts IBM's mainframe business, sending shares down 11% on threat

                            favicon

                            (www.techbuzz.ai)

                            jc0f0116@infosec.exchangeJ This user is from outside of this forum
                            jc0f0116@infosec.exchangeJ This user is from outside of this forum
                            jc0f0116@infosec.exchange
                            wrote last edited by
                            #32

                            @timbray webdev vibecoders and llm industry have one thing in common: they're both at the very end of a massively complex and fragile network of interdependant components/processes, and have seemingly no understanding of its complexity. that's how you get "we're just going to build a million datacenters in a year and then the agi will just rewrite everything in rust, simple🚀 "

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