Subject: Autistic ‘black and white’ thinking.
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Ok, I can see why school management doesn’t like it – e.g. in a public consultation when they’re pushing through a policy that goes against the kids and parents, while justifying it with arguments that are a) logically inconsistent, and b) funnily, involve them taking no responsibility.
I’m also told I’m bad at ‘just trusting’ – that I’m suspicious.
“But,” I protest, “it’s just that I like evidence. Um – where’s the data, please?”
️ Zooming in here…
And dividing this into 4 strands (I know: very autistic
1. Clarity vs rigidity;
2. Probabilistic vs local thinking;
3. Cognitive vs social uncertainty;
4. Are we right not to ‘just trust’?And addressing them one by one:
️ -
Zooming in here…
And dividing this into 4 strands (I know: very autistic
1. Clarity vs rigidity;
2. Probabilistic vs local thinking;
3. Cognitive vs social uncertainty;
4. Are we right not to ‘just trust’?And addressing them one by one:
️1: Clarity vs rigidity.
Clarity is about:
- Explicit parameters
- Defined variables
- Stated assumptions
- Predictable processesRigidity is about:
- Refusal to update
- Low tolerance for model revision
- Over-attachment to a rule regardless of new evidenceA probabilistic thinker can be extremely non-rigid, while still demanding clarity.
In fact, probability thinking requires flexibility.
You constantly update priors when new data arrives. That’s Bayesian, not rigid 🥰
️ -
1: Clarity vs rigidity.
Clarity is about:
- Explicit parameters
- Defined variables
- Stated assumptions
- Predictable processesRigidity is about:
- Refusal to update
- Low tolerance for model revision
- Over-attachment to a rule regardless of new evidenceA probabilistic thinker can be extremely non-rigid, while still demanding clarity.
In fact, probability thinking requires flexibility.
You constantly update priors when new data arrives. That’s Bayesian, not rigid 🥰
️2: Probability thinking and autism.
There’s growing discussion in cognitive science that many autistic people:
- Prefer system-level pattern detection
- Track contingencies more explicitly
- Think in conditional structures (“if X, then Y”)
- Notice statistical irregularitiesThat isn’t black-and-white thinking.
That’s model-based reasoning.If anything, it can tolerate uncertainty better, because uncertainty is explicitly modeled rather than socially smoothed over.
️ -
2: Probability thinking and autism.
There’s growing discussion in cognitive science that many autistic people:
- Prefer system-level pattern detection
- Track contingencies more explicitly
- Think in conditional structures (“if X, then Y”)
- Notice statistical irregularitiesThat isn’t black-and-white thinking.
That’s model-based reasoning.If anything, it can tolerate uncertainty better, because uncertainty is explicitly modeled rather than socially smoothed over.
️3: Conceptual vs social uncertainty.
Many autistic people seem to tolerate:
- Conceptual ambiguity
- Abstract uncertainty
- Complex models
- Open-ended questionsBut we do struggle with:
- Unstated social rules
- Hidden expectations
- Implicit hierarchy shifts
- Unpredictable human behaviorSo the discomfort isn’t with uncertainty per se. It’s with unmodeled variables.
Which ties in with discomfort with social reassurance, e.g. with trusting “everything will be fine.”
️ -
3: Conceptual vs social uncertainty.
Many autistic people seem to tolerate:
- Conceptual ambiguity
- Abstract uncertainty
- Complex models
- Open-ended questionsBut we do struggle with:
- Unstated social rules
- Hidden expectations
- Implicit hierarchy shifts
- Unpredictable human behaviorSo the discomfort isn’t with uncertainty per se. It’s with unmodeled variables.
Which ties in with discomfort with social reassurance, e.g. with trusting “everything will be fine.”
️4: Are we right not to ‘just trust’?
Many neurotypical social systems run on:
- Emotional smoothing
- Implicit trust
- Status-based reassurance
- Norm enforcement through vibe rather than dataIf you’ve repeatedly experienced (and many autistic people have; refs at the end):
- Broken promises
- Social insecurity and unpredictability
- Rule inconsistencies and injusticesThen vague reassurance doesn’t reduce uncertainty – it increases it!
️ -
4: Are we right not to ‘just trust’?
Many neurotypical social systems run on:
- Emotional smoothing
- Implicit trust
- Status-based reassurance
- Norm enforcement through vibe rather than dataIf you’ve repeatedly experienced (and many autistic people have; refs at the end):
- Broken promises
- Social insecurity and unpredictability
- Rule inconsistencies and injusticesThen vague reassurance doesn’t reduce uncertainty – it increases it!
️So the demand for clarity isn’t rigidity.
It’s risk management.Even if sometimes, due to habituation and chronic distress, I think we may ‘bunker in’ and be quite frustratingly intransigent, e.g. in human interactions.
But that may be more a question of ‘once bitten, twice shy’ rather than anything intrinsic to us.
️ -
So the demand for clarity isn’t rigidity.
It’s risk management.Even if sometimes, due to habituation and chronic distress, I think we may ‘bunker in’ and be quite frustratingly intransigent, e.g. in human interactions.
But that may be more a question of ‘once bitten, twice shy’ rather than anything intrinsic to us.
️ I think we autistics might know all this in our bones. In our hearts. Somewhere, anyway… but usually on an instinctive level.
Even if we’re not aware of our reasons or motivations, and instead struggle with shame and self-doubt (just as we’re encouraged and socialized to do).
But… clarity is the enemy of oppression!
It replaces confusion with transparency. It throws light on the landscape
️ -
I think we autistics might know all this in our bones. In our hearts. Somewhere, anyway… but usually on an instinctive level.
Even if we’re not aware of our reasons or motivations, and instead struggle with shame and self-doubt (just as we’re encouraged and socialized to do).
But… clarity is the enemy of oppression!
It replaces confusion with transparency. It throws light on the landscape
️ I think our bones are right.
In fact, I think embracing a reasoning style based on data, patterns, and probability could be a huge bonus for everyone.
As – objectively speaking – it could pave the road for authenticity, equity, and justice to replace former murkiness, power plays, and empty promises.
End of 🧵
References below
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I think our bones are right.
In fact, I think embracing a reasoning style based on data, patterns, and probability could be a huge bonus for everyone.
As – objectively speaking – it could pave the road for authenticity, equity, and justice to replace former murkiness, power plays, and empty promises.
End of 🧵
References below
Refs:
Arendt, H. Truth and Politics
https://german.yale.edu/sites/default/files/arendt.truth_and_politicslying_in_politics.pdf
- Explores why factual truth is politically fragile, and how organised lying distorts shared reality.Beasant, L. et al. (2023) autistic adults’ views on RCT randomisation and blinding (open access, PMC)
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11134970/
- Here, autistic adults emphasised the need for clear explanations of how decisions are made.more below
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Refs:
Arendt, H. Truth and Politics
https://german.yale.edu/sites/default/files/arendt.truth_and_politicslying_in_politics.pdf
- Explores why factual truth is politically fragile, and how organised lying distorts shared reality.Beasant, L. et al. (2023) autistic adults’ views on RCT randomisation and blinding (open access, PMC)
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11134970/
- Here, autistic adults emphasised the need for clear explanations of how decisions are made.more below
Bloom, P. Against Empathy: The Case for Rational Compassion
- Argues empathy can be biased and spotlight-driven, and defends rational compassion as a better moral guide.Demetriou, E.A. et al. (2018) executive function meta-analysis (Molecular Psychiatry)
https://www.nature.com/articles/mp201775
- Meta-analysis showing executive-function differences in autism relating to flexibility.more below
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4: Are we right not to ‘just trust’?
Many neurotypical social systems run on:
- Emotional smoothing
- Implicit trust
- Status-based reassurance
- Norm enforcement through vibe rather than dataIf you’ve repeatedly experienced (and many autistic people have; refs at the end):
- Broken promises
- Social insecurity and unpredictability
- Rule inconsistencies and injusticesThen vague reassurance doesn’t reduce uncertainty – it increases it!
️@KatyElphinstone
on the vague re-assurances being worth Jack Squat -
Bloom, P. Against Empathy: The Case for Rational Compassion
- Argues empathy can be biased and spotlight-driven, and defends rational compassion as a better moral guide.Demetriou, E.A. et al. (2018) executive function meta-analysis (Molecular Psychiatry)
https://www.nature.com/articles/mp201775
- Meta-analysis showing executive-function differences in autism relating to flexibility.more below
Farmer at el. (2017) consistent decision-making in autism (open PDF copy)
https://docs.autismresearchcentre.com/papers/2017_Farmer_People-with-ASCs-make-more-consistent-decisions.pdf
- Finds autistic people to make more consistent choices in a decoy-effect decision task.Farmer, P. Pathologies of Power: Health, Human Rights, and the New War on the Poor
- How ‘structural violence’ produces suffering & why naming power works towards real-world change.Freire, P. Pedagogy of the Oppressed
- Connects oppression & liberation to social, learning, & language frameworksmore below
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Farmer at el. (2017) consistent decision-making in autism (open PDF copy)
https://docs.autismresearchcentre.com/papers/2017_Farmer_People-with-ASCs-make-more-consistent-decisions.pdf
- Finds autistic people to make more consistent choices in a decoy-effect decision task.Farmer, P. Pathologies of Power: Health, Human Rights, and the New War on the Poor
- How ‘structural violence’ produces suffering & why naming power works towards real-world change.Freire, P. Pedagogy of the Oppressed
- Connects oppression & liberation to social, learning, & language frameworksmore below
Fricker, M. Epistemic Injustice: Power and the Ethics of Knowing
- Defines how power wrongs people, incl. how society lacks concepts to describe harms.Hollocks et al. (2025). Cognitive flexibility mediates the associations between perceived stress, social camouflaging and mental health challenges in autistic adults. Autism Research, 18(8), 1595–1607. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aur.70061
- Higher stress in autistic people was linked to worse anxiety/depression & more rigid thinking.more below
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Fricker, M. Epistemic Injustice: Power and the Ethics of Knowing
- Defines how power wrongs people, incl. how society lacks concepts to describe harms.Hollocks et al. (2025). Cognitive flexibility mediates the associations between perceived stress, social camouflaging and mental health challenges in autistic adults. Autism Research, 18(8), 1595–1607. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aur.70061
- Higher stress in autistic people was linked to worse anxiety/depression & more rigid thinking.more below
Jameel, L. et al. (2015) clear-cut vs ambiguous social rules (UCL PDF)
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1469956/1/Jameel%20et%20al.%20Great%20Expectations.pdf
- Looks at whether social rules are clear-cut or ambiguous and measures responses as a direct test of rule clarity.Jin, P. et al. (2020) fairness games in autism (open access, PMC)
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7137314/
- Uses economic fairness tasks to compare fairness-related choices in autistic and non-autistic groups.more below
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Jameel, L. et al. (2015) clear-cut vs ambiguous social rules (UCL PDF)
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1469956/1/Jameel%20et%20al.%20Great%20Expectations.pdf
- Looks at whether social rules are clear-cut or ambiguous and measures responses as a direct test of rule clarity.Jin, P. et al. (2020) fairness games in autism (open access, PMC)
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7137314/
- Uses economic fairness tasks to compare fairness-related choices in autistic and non-autistic groups.more below
Karvelis, P. et al. (2018) Bayesian visual integration and autistic traits (open access, PMC)
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5966274/
- Tests autistic traits in Bayesian integration and links traits to stronger perception via more precise sensory information.Li, J. et al. (2014) moral judgement and cooperation in autism (open access, PMC)
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3945921/
- Relates moral judgements in autism to cooperation behaviour in a game context.more below
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Karvelis, P. et al. (2018) Bayesian visual integration and autistic traits (open access, PMC)
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5966274/
- Tests autistic traits in Bayesian integration and links traits to stronger perception via more precise sensory information.Li, J. et al. (2014) moral judgement and cooperation in autism (open access, PMC)
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3945921/
- Relates moral judgements in autism to cooperation behaviour in a game context.more below
Orwell, G. (1946) “Politics and the English Language”
https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/politics-and-the-english-language/
- Shows how vague language protects cruelty & frames clarity as resistance to manipulation.Pellicano, E. & Burr, D. (2012) Bayesian explanation of autistic perception (UCL record)
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1476122/
- A Bayesian framing of autistic perception showing how priors and uncertainty differ in shaping experience.End of refs.
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7. We can be a bit like pattern-seeking missiles.
8. When new evidence comes to light, we’re generally adaptable – even if it takes a minute.
9. That said, we may dig in our heels about things (like change) when we’re anxious or scared.
10. We like gathering data, and interactions that are a true exchange of information.
But none of this amounts to cognitive rigidity or ‘black and white’ thinking
️@KatyElphinstone Being unambiguous is not “black and white” nor is it limiting. One can have a huge rainbow of clearly defined colours. Blue is not red, yellow is not green. But there are limitless colours. I suspect sometimes people mistake a strong desire for clarity to be a refusal to accept complexity. Sometimes it’s just a stubborn effort to understand or organise the complexity.
I love the phrase “pattern-seeking missile.”
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@KatyElphinstone
on the vague re-assurances being worth Jack SquatYes, that too, exactly!
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I think our bones are right.
In fact, I think embracing a reasoning style based on data, patterns, and probability could be a huge bonus for everyone.
As – objectively speaking – it could pave the road for authenticity, equity, and justice to replace former murkiness, power plays, and empty promises.
End of 🧵
References below
@KatyElphinstone Great thread!
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Ah yes, so "stop being obstructive" ... or "no one else is complaining" ... or "you've gone out of my depth but instead of learning to swim I'm going to shut you down" ?
