I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.
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@sara @thomasfuchs ooh very interesting possible upside. Maybe it’ll also reduce device churn, ewaste, etc. Actual commercial incentive for manufacturers to support long life?
@joenash @thomasfuchs new software releases optimizing harder for 5-years-ago hardware? Longer LTS/guaranteed-update cycles? (that already works for Pixel phones as a differentiator today)
Don't get me wrong the horizon barreling towards us is terrifying, but I'm still curious about unexpected silver linings
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@thomasfuchs I wonder if this will be the inflection point that pumps the brakes on questionable "smart" products. More *dumb* refrigerators/TVs/bbq grills in flagship lineups, etc.
@sara they will still need computers for designing them, making them, shipping them and selling them so idk
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@joenash @thomasfuchs new software releases optimizing harder for 5-years-ago hardware? Longer LTS/guaranteed-update cycles? (that already works for Pixel phones as a differentiator today)
Don't get me wrong the horizon barreling towards us is terrifying, but I'm still curious about unexpected silver linings
@sara @thomasfuchs 100%! I really enjoy the permacomputing movement and efforts like PostmarketOS, so a widely-messaged shortage like this potentially bringing them more attention is definitely a cool silver lining
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If you think you need a new computer anytime in the next 3–5 years you probably should buy one right now.
@thomasfuchs ah... or other way around:
Don't buy a computer now when in 3-5 years tons and tons of powerful computers, RAM, disks and other datacenter stuff will hit the refurbished market, because the AI bubble burst in a big bang.
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If you think you need a new computer anytime in the next 3–5 years you probably should buy one right now.
@thomasfuchs I'm wondering what it will do to used PC prices.
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I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.
Data centers will consume 70 percent of memory chips made in 2026 - supply shortfall will cause the chip shortage to spread to other segments
Soon enough, you might not even be able to buy a calculator.
Tom's Hardware (www.tomshardware.com)
@thomasfuchs — @parismarx did a very good series back in 2024 about this called Data Vampires, and I believe is writing a book on the topic now https://techwontsave.us/episode/241_data_vampires_going_hyperscale_episode_1
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I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.
Data centers will consume 70 percent of memory chips made in 2026 - supply shortfall will cause the chip shortage to spread to other segments
Soon enough, you might not even be able to buy a calculator.
Tom's Hardware (www.tomshardware.com)
@thomasfuchs I've brought back to life a couple of old Google Pixel phones by installing LineageOS. The batteries were pretending they were dying — turns out they're totally fine.
I had good results with an old & slow 2008 Windows laptop converted to Linux. It blew me away — it's more responsive than my much newer MacBook.
Just an option if someone can't go out and buy a computer now.
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@thomasfuchs They're going to build Skynet. No one needs memory anymore after that./s
@sternentau @thomasfuchs Why the /s ? If you look through Epstein's correspondence you can get a pretty good idea of what kind of research they were doing and what they are building. Skynet would be better IMHO.
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@thomasfuchs I've brought back to life a couple of old Google Pixel phones by installing LineageOS. The batteries were pretending they were dying — turns out they're totally fine.
I had good results with an old & slow 2008 Windows laptop converted to Linux. It blew me away — it's more responsive than my much newer MacBook.
Just an option if someone can't go out and buy a computer now.
@txtx used computers and phones will massively increase in price as well as supply dries up
(So better be quick!)
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@thomasfuchs I'm wondering what it will do to used PC prices.
@foolishowl line goes up
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@thomasfuchs ah... or other way around:
Don't buy a computer now when in 3-5 years tons and tons of powerful computers, RAM, disks and other datacenter stuff will hit the refurbished market, because the AI bubble burst in a big bang.
@ij you can’t really use data center stuff for personal computing (except maybe for some turbo-nerds); and it will take a while for production of parts to ramp up again
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@txtx used computers and phones will massively increase in price as well as supply dries up
(So better be quick!)
@thomasfuchs Gotta admit, all those circular deals between Nvidia and their oligopoly friends are starting to work for them (at least until the ai scam bubble pops).
I guess they saw the chip shortage around the COVID era and are doing what's needed to replicate that everywhere they can.
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I don’t think people understand how bad this is going to get.
Data centers will consume 70 percent of memory chips made in 2026 - supply shortfall will cause the chip shortage to spread to other segments
Soon enough, you might not even be able to buy a calculator.
Tom's Hardware (www.tomshardware.com)
@thomasfuchs This is like having rich people buying up all of the housing stock and renting it back to the rest of us.
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If you think you need a new computer anytime in the next 3–5 years you probably should buy one right now.
@thomasfuchs Isn't it already too late?
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