Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites!

[argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.org]

@rootwyrm

Kessler syndrome in low Earth orbit won't entirely prevent the deployment of replacement GPS satellites or otherwise launching rockets into outer space.

Probably. One hopes.

Can Space Debris Block Access to Outer Space?

Analysis of Kessler syndrome risks and whether orbital debris could prevent launches beyond Earth. Examines accidental cascades, deliberate dispersal threats, and mitigation strategies.

Forethought (www.forethought.org)

@sundogplanets

[sundogplanets@mastodon.social]

@argv_minus_one @rootwyrm It'll just make it WAY WAY WAY riskier and more likely to require multiple attempts.

[argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.org]

@rootwyrm

How could a society have aneutronic fusion and interstellar travel, yet be unable to armor or shield their ships enough to shrug off impact by orbital debris?

I mean, even if you don't have Star Trek deflector shields, but you do have a rocket powered by a fusion reactor, then you should be able to at least slap some pretty thick slabs of armor on your ship and still fly.

And not even weird exotic armor. Orbital debris hits with the force of a grenade, not a nuke.

@sundogplanets

[argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.org]

@sundogplanets

Not according to the numbers in the linked article. 0.5% chance of collision per launch is not great, especially if the mission isn't unmanned, but with odds like that you can still put GPS satellites into orbit pretty reliably.

@rootwyrm

[guigsy@mstdn.social]

@Tofu_Golem @sundogplanets I think the current Starlinks consume a sustained 22kW! These server sats would be a few times bigger. But it's not impossible. The engineering can be done.

I hate the idea. I still think it'll fail in many other ways. But the engineering has largely been proven already.

[hipsterelectron@circumstances.run]

@sundogplanets does the advent of kessler syndrome also definitionally imply more space surveillance of remote spots on earth?

[john_loader@ohai.social]

@sundogplanets Anti alien minefield!

[michkov@mas.to]

@sundogplanets On a serious note, that may be a result of living under light pollution for your whole live. With so many people living in cities, they don't even know what they lose to the mega constellations.

[sundogplanets@mastodon.social]

@hipsterelectron I'm not quite sure what you're asking. But if we have full Kessler Syndrome, it will be hard if not impossible to keep satellite from getting destroyed by debris and NOBODY will be doing surveillance from space.

[hipsterelectron@circumstances.run]

@sundogplanets thanks!

[lp0_on_fire@social.linux.pizza]

@sundogplanets, “Come on, people! I want to do the Kessler Run in less than twelve seconds!”

[chemoelectric@masto.ai]

@sundogplanets @Michkov

The scab I had on my knee that my parents had to debride lest I die from sepsis was beautiful in its way. Nevertheless, when they told me I would die if they did not let me rub it off of me, I let them rub it off of me. And, as always, I took my penicillin. Being a kid in the 1960s who got his tonsils out in the 1960s, when they didn’t take out tonsils regularly anymore, I took a lot of penicillin.

Tell that to the people who say that.

[chemoelectric@masto.ai]

@sundogplanets @Michkov

(I don’t think having the tonsils out helped one bit. But maybe it did. It is hard to know.)

[0x0ddc0ffee@infosec.exchange]

@sundogplanets Professor Lawler, would you please tell me if you aware of anyone attempting to model how Kessler Syndrome will play-out, with all that's up there now, and planned in the short term?

I'm very anxious to know whether high velocity collisions in low earth orbit could have enough energy to eject material further out to medium and high orbit. Put simply, does a tech bro Kesslerpocalyse take-out BeiDou, Galileo, GLONASS, and GPS, as well?

I'm assuming it would, in effect, eventually, due to attrition, since I imagine it will be difficult, perhaps impossible, to launch any more MEO, GEO, or HEO satellites through the LEO debris layer.* I suppose it's also fairly likely that the debris will scatter RF energy to the point where satellite astronavigation and time synchronization fails, anyway.

*We can savor the irony of Elon trapped on Earth by his own space junk, at least.

[dymaxion@infosec.exchange]

@wallabra
@macronencer While I also don't think it justifies Starlink, no, there is currently no replacement for Starlink in the Ukrainian context. At the trench lines, there is no infrastructure of any kind left. It's all rubble. Also, getting realtime video uplink from a drone in the middle of the black sea or in the middle of Moscow is not possible for them by any non-satellite means. In theory the front line connections could be partially replaced by much much more heavily deployed terrestrial data radios, but they're by default easier to both jam and home in on with RF-seeking drones, simply due to the angle of intended emissions.

The internet is somewhat resilient, yes. However, its resilience is highly overestimated by folks who don't work on carrier networks. The whole thing is held together with very expensive ducktape and bailing wire and constant efforts by thousands of people. Fiber breaks are a constant problem. The only intact fiber at the Ukrainian front is attached to FPV drones.

[wallabra@bark.lgbt]

@dymaxion @macronencer I mean, all technology is held together by duct tape, yeah. Such is the nature of squeezing margin out of capital. That doesn't mean deploying a hecto-mesh of satellites is the approach to go with for resilient remote miltary operations. I mean, think about it this way: did Iran need Starlink to strike Dubai with drones?

[elasticsoul@mastodon.social]

@sundogplanets

I certainly have thought that a good dose of Kessler Syndrome would put the tech bros and unregulated capitalism in their place, but apparently KS could mean no more space flights...for hundreds of years. Prof, is there more, and worse?

"Kessler Syndrome is extremely bad for everybody, don't hope for it (though on my grumpier days I can definitely understand that perspective)"

Future generations are not going to respect their ancestors, and I don't blame 'em

#kesslersyndrome

[dymaxion@infosec.exchange]

@wallabra
@macronencer Iran is mostly shooting at stuff that doesn't move and doing without manual terminal-phase guidance. Again, I'm not saying that it's justified. That said, making the argument to governments that capability is not worth the risk and impact on a way that will be heard requires acknowledging the use cases where there is no direct replacement and the infrastructural dependencies that attempts to replace it imply. The EU and China are both working toward their own constellations, multiplying the problem, because having a sovereign LEO data capability is seen as a critical defense capability.

[raktheundead@vmst.io]

@Tofu_Golem @sundogplanets: They're also insanely stupid as far as maintenance goes.