Andreas Papadopulos 𝕏
@Bacharelhalabi@twitter.com:
Breaking
: Iran announces a “special gift” to Iraq, allowing its crude to pass through the Strait of #Hormuz.
The official spokesperson of #Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya Ebrahim Zolfaghari, said Iraq is exempt from any restrictions on passage through Hormuz.
But the timing says more than the statement itself. 🧵
(1) Until yesterday, Iraqi officials were scrambling for alternative crude export outlets, rerouting north (#Ceyhan) and trucking west (#Syria), while losing billions in revenues.
Now suddenly, Baghdad is “gifted” an exemption.
(2) Iraq has been the hardest hit by Iran’s Hormuz closure:
• Monthly revenues fell from ~$6.8bn in February to ~$1.9bn in March
• This left #Baghdad with a ~5 trillion Iraqi dinar gap just to pay salaries in a country with near-total dependence on oil revenues
(3) This isn’t just about Iraq.
Iraqi oil revenues remain a key source of dollar liquidity, including for Tehran itself.
At the same time, Iran-aligned Iraqi militias, some now reportedly operating in Iran, depend on that same financial ecosystem.
(4) Iraq has shut in many of its oil fields, with production falling from around 4.4mn b/d , including from the KRG, prior to the war, to around 900,000–950,000 b/d now, according to @ArgusMedia@twitter.com estimates.
Monitoring Iraq’s production and tanker movements will be key.