Andreas Papadopulos 𝕏 @Bacharelhalabi@twitter.com:Breaking: Iran announces a “special gift” to Iraq, allowing its crude to pass through the Strait of #Hormuz.The official spokesperson of #Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya Ebrahim Zolfaghari, said Iraq is exempt from any restrictions on passage through Hormuz.But the timing says more than the statement itself. 🧵(1) Until yesterday, Iraqi officials were scrambling for alternative crude export outlets, rerouting north (#Ceyhan) and trucking west (#Syria), while losing billions in revenues.Now suddenly, Baghdad is “gifted” an exemption.(2) Iraq has been the hardest hit by Iran’s Hormuz closure:• Monthly revenues fell from ~$6.8bn in February to ~$1.9bn in March• This left #Baghdad with a ~5 trillion Iraqi dinar gap just to pay salaries in a country with near-total dependence on oil revenues(3) This isn’t just about Iraq.Iraqi oil revenues remain a key source of dollar liquidity, including for Tehran itself.At the same time, Iran-aligned Iraqi militias, some now reportedly operating in Iran, depend on that same financial ecosystem.(4) Iraq has shut in many of its oil fields, with production falling from around 4.4mn b/d , including from the KRG, prior to the war, to around 900,000–950,000 b/d now, according to @ArgusMedia@twitter.com estimates.Monitoring Iraq’s production and tanker movements will be key.#oott
