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  3. We know the rise of the Greens & ReformUK Ltd has shifted voters away from supporting the Labour Party.

We know the rise of the Greens & ReformUK Ltd has shifted voters away from supporting the Labour Party.

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  • rozeboosje@masto.aiR rozeboosje@masto.ai

    @ChrisMayLA6 Someone posted an article a few days ago that featured the same graph. It also highlighted a massive flaw in the representation. What looks like losses from Labour to Reform is actually an artefact of the FPTP system, and it represents Reform's ability to mobilise people who wouldn't have voted otherwise. Labour's losses, allegedly, are mainly to the Greens. I can't find the article now, sorry.

    chrismayla6@zirk.usC This user is from outside of this forum
    chrismayla6@zirk.usC This user is from outside of this forum
    chrismayla6@zirk.us
    wrote last edited by
    #10

    @rozeboosje

    yes, that also makes sense

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
    • rozeboosje@masto.aiR rozeboosje@masto.ai

      @ChrisMayLA6 Someone posted an article a few days ago that featured the same graph. It also highlighted a massive flaw in the representation. What looks like losses from Labour to Reform is actually an artefact of the FPTP system, and it represents Reform's ability to mobilise people who wouldn't have voted otherwise. Labour's losses, allegedly, are mainly to the Greens. I can't find the article now, sorry.

      marjolica@social.linux.pizzaM This user is from outside of this forum
      marjolica@social.linux.pizzaM This user is from outside of this forum
      marjolica@social.linux.pizza
      wrote last edited by
      #11

      @rozeboosje @ChrisMayLA6 yes, I recall that article too. Likewise no success in finding it again.

      1 Reply Last reply
      0
      • reggiehere@mastodon.socialR reggiehere@mastodon.social

        @ChrisMayLA6

        Presumably that red island at the top of the 2026 image is Labour's centre-right faction?

        geofcox@climatejustice.socialG This user is from outside of this forum
        geofcox@climatejustice.socialG This user is from outside of this forum
        geofcox@climatejustice.social
        wrote last edited by
        #12

        @ReggieHere @ChrisMayLA6
        @ApostateEnglishman

        The line roughly down the middle of the 2026 diagram also makes the generational divide very clear - and remember this is also an educational divide. The Labour governments of the 60s and 70s introduced comprehensive education and massively expanded higher education - in 1960 less than 5% of kids went to university, in 2019 over 50% went.

        reggiehere@mastodon.socialR 1 Reply Last reply
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        • reggiehere@mastodon.socialR reggiehere@mastodon.social

          @androcat

          Yes, that makes sense. An unfortnate gap between "briefcase" and "working" Labour.

          @ChrisMayLA6

          androcat@toot.catA This user is from outside of this forum
          androcat@toot.catA This user is from outside of this forum
          androcat@toot.cat
          wrote last edited by
          #13

          @ReggieHere @ChrisMayLA6

          I think I figured it out.
          So the background colourings are a bit misleading. What is displayed is the wards (those granules in darker colour).
          And the granules are tracked in two axes, by the population:
          % managerial, and % aged 50.
          So the wards haven't moved around a lot, because demographics haven't changed much.
          Then the wards were colorized according to leading party, and given an imaginary "territory" to contextualize (the background colours). So you may well be right.

          unchartedworlds@scicomm.xyzU 1 Reply Last reply
          0
          • androcat@toot.catA androcat@toot.cat

            @ReggieHere @ChrisMayLA6

            I think I figured it out.
            So the background colourings are a bit misleading. What is displayed is the wards (those granules in darker colour).
            And the granules are tracked in two axes, by the population:
            % managerial, and % aged 50.
            So the wards haven't moved around a lot, because demographics haven't changed much.
            Then the wards were colorized according to leading party, and given an imaginary "territory" to contextualize (the background colours). So you may well be right.

            unchartedworlds@scicomm.xyzU This user is from outside of this forum
            unchartedworlds@scicomm.xyzU This user is from outside of this forum
            unchartedworlds@scicomm.xyz
            wrote last edited by
            #14

            @androcat @ReggieHere @ChrisMayLA6

            Yes, I was just thinking it would be clearer if they coloured the dots and didn't have the coloured backgrounds.

            androcat@toot.catA 1 Reply Last reply
            0
            • chrismayla6@zirk.usC chrismayla6@zirk.us

              We know the rise of the Greens & ReformUK Ltd has shifted voters away from supporting the Labour Party. The Economist used these results to match the age & work profile of workers to map this transition between 2021 & 2026.

              The diagram below offer a (further) stark demonstration of why the Labour Party is wrong-headed in their aping of ReformUK, not least because their support from such wider base is moving to the Green Party of England & Wales.

              #politics #Greens
              h/t Andy Cotgreave/LinkedIn

              Link Preview Image
              notsoloud@expressional.socialN This user is from outside of this forum
              notsoloud@expressional.socialN This user is from outside of this forum
              notsoloud@expressional.social
              wrote last edited by
              #15

              @ChrisMayLA6
              How are these colorings done? There must be a lot of (over?)simplification going on here. No way the wards divide that nicely by just two variables. The middle should look a lot more mottled.

              1 Reply Last reply
              0
              • chrismayla6@zirk.usC chrismayla6@zirk.us

                @ReggieHere

                Not so sure; I took that to be younger professionals who still hadn't been convinced by the Greens, yet grew up in a social environment were voting right was sees as terminally uncool?

                reggiehere@mastodon.socialR This user is from outside of this forum
                reggiehere@mastodon.socialR This user is from outside of this forum
                reggiehere@mastodon.social
                wrote last edited by
                #16

                @ChrisMayLA6

                That would make sense. It's quite a confusing chart.

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                0
                • geofcox@climatejustice.socialG geofcox@climatejustice.social

                  @ReggieHere @ChrisMayLA6
                  @ApostateEnglishman

                  The line roughly down the middle of the 2026 diagram also makes the generational divide very clear - and remember this is also an educational divide. The Labour governments of the 60s and 70s introduced comprehensive education and massively expanded higher education - in 1960 less than 5% of kids went to university, in 2019 over 50% went.

                  reggiehere@mastodon.socialR This user is from outside of this forum
                  reggiehere@mastodon.socialR This user is from outside of this forum
                  reggiehere@mastodon.social
                  wrote last edited by
                  #17

                  @GeofCox

                  It is a pretty stark cut off. Makes a bit of a mockery of RefUK's claims to attracting younger voters.

                  @ChrisMayLA6 @ApostateEnglishman

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  0
                  • unchartedworlds@scicomm.xyzU unchartedworlds@scicomm.xyz

                    @androcat @ReggieHere @ChrisMayLA6

                    Yes, I was just thinking it would be clearer if they coloured the dots and didn't have the coloured backgrounds.

                    androcat@toot.catA This user is from outside of this forum
                    androcat@toot.catA This user is from outside of this forum
                    androcat@toot.cat
                    wrote last edited by
                    #18

                    @unchartedworlds @ReggieHere @ChrisMayLA6

                    It's a striking outcome, though.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    0
                    • chrismayla6@zirk.usC chrismayla6@zirk.us

                      We know the rise of the Greens & ReformUK Ltd has shifted voters away from supporting the Labour Party. The Economist used these results to match the age & work profile of workers to map this transition between 2021 & 2026.

                      The diagram below offer a (further) stark demonstration of why the Labour Party is wrong-headed in their aping of ReformUK, not least because their support from such wider base is moving to the Green Party of England & Wales.

                      #politics #Greens
                      h/t Andy Cotgreave/LinkedIn

                      Link Preview Image
                      fazalmajid@social.vivaldi.netF This user is from outside of this forum
                      fazalmajid@social.vivaldi.netF This user is from outside of this forum
                      fazalmajid@social.vivaldi.net
                      wrote last edited by
                      #19

                      @ChrisMayLA6 This diagram is misleading because it does not show the ages in proportion to their share of the population, or of their propensity to vote.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      0
                      • rozeboosje@masto.aiR rozeboosje@masto.ai

                        @ChrisMayLA6 Someone posted an article a few days ago that featured the same graph. It also highlighted a massive flaw in the representation. What looks like losses from Labour to Reform is actually an artefact of the FPTP system, and it represents Reform's ability to mobilise people who wouldn't have voted otherwise. Labour's losses, allegedly, are mainly to the Greens. I can't find the article now, sorry.

                        bazzargh@hachyderm.ioB This user is from outside of this forum
                        bazzargh@hachyderm.ioB This user is from outside of this forum
                        bazzargh@hachyderm.io
                        wrote last edited by
                        #20

                        @rozeboosje @ChrisMayLA6 I think you might have read @Tupp_ed 's The Gist https://www.thegist.ie/the-gist-britain-the-ungoverned-country/ - it has exactly that explanation of why this chart is misleading, and other charts that show a clearer picture.

                        rozeboosje@masto.aiR thedonsielass@mas.toT 2 Replies Last reply
                        0
                        • bazzargh@hachyderm.ioB bazzargh@hachyderm.io

                          @rozeboosje @ChrisMayLA6 I think you might have read @Tupp_ed 's The Gist https://www.thegist.ie/the-gist-britain-the-ungoverned-country/ - it has exactly that explanation of why this chart is misleading, and other charts that show a clearer picture.

                          rozeboosje@masto.aiR This user is from outside of this forum
                          rozeboosje@masto.aiR This user is from outside of this forum
                          rozeboosje@masto.ai
                          wrote last edited by
                          #21

                          @bazzargh @ChrisMayLA6 @Tupp_ed That's the one. Thanks for finding it!

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          0
                          • bazzargh@hachyderm.ioB bazzargh@hachyderm.io

                            @rozeboosje @ChrisMayLA6 I think you might have read @Tupp_ed 's The Gist https://www.thegist.ie/the-gist-britain-the-ungoverned-country/ - it has exactly that explanation of why this chart is misleading, and other charts that show a clearer picture.

                            thedonsielass@mas.toT This user is from outside of this forum
                            thedonsielass@mas.toT This user is from outside of this forum
                            thedonsielass@mas.to
                            wrote last edited by
                            #22

                            @bazzargh Thanks. Really useful article

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            0
                            • chrismayla6@zirk.usC chrismayla6@zirk.us

                              We know the rise of the Greens & ReformUK Ltd has shifted voters away from supporting the Labour Party. The Economist used these results to match the age & work profile of workers to map this transition between 2021 & 2026.

                              The diagram below offer a (further) stark demonstration of why the Labour Party is wrong-headed in their aping of ReformUK, not least because their support from such wider base is moving to the Green Party of England & Wales.

                              #politics #Greens
                              h/t Andy Cotgreave/LinkedIn

                              Link Preview Image
                              W This user is from outside of this forum
                              W This user is from outside of this forum
                              woo@fosstodon.org
                              wrote last edited by
                              #23

                              @ChrisMayLA6 The LibDems seem to have quietly doubled in size too, by their cunning technique of being silenced. I saw one on the wild yesterday, resorting to hand gestures at Jenrick. Not the one I'd have made but funnier.

                              1 Reply Last reply
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