Right now in the US, per the WastewaterSCAN dashboard, COVID is 33% lower than it's been at any point in years.
-
Right now in the US, per the WastewaterSCAN dashboard, COVID is 33% lower than it's been at any point in years. It's down 80% from the peak of our modest winter surge in January.
Perhaps most importantly, #COVID19 levels are 70% lower than this same week in 2025 and 2026.
COVID will surge again this summer. Risks are higher in the West and South than in the rest of the US. But, if trends continue, this summer's surge could be our lowest since 2021.
1/2
-
Right now in the US, per the WastewaterSCAN dashboard, COVID is 33% lower than it's been at any point in years. It's down 80% from the peak of our modest winter surge in January.
Perhaps most importantly, #COVID19 levels are 70% lower than this same week in 2025 and 2026.
COVID will surge again this summer. Risks are higher in the West and South than in the rest of the US. But, if trends continue, this summer's surge could be our lowest since 2021.
1/2
One caveat: WastewaterSCAN's data is not as complete as the CDC's NWSS (which will be updated again this Friday.)
What could cause us to reverse the good trends and cause us to see higher surges?
1) Low vax rate (As of February 22, 2026, the last data available, just 17.5% of US adults got the 2025/25 vaccine.)
2) COVID evolution (but so far, no new variants are raising any concern.) One exception: The new variant in the US seems like it hits kids harder than adults.
2/2
-
One caveat: WastewaterSCAN's data is not as complete as the CDC's NWSS (which will be updated again this Friday.)
What could cause us to reverse the good trends and cause us to see higher surges?
1) Low vax rate (As of February 22, 2026, the last data available, just 17.5% of US adults got the 2025/25 vaccine.)
2) COVID evolution (but so far, no new variants are raising any concern.) One exception: The new variant in the US seems like it hits kids harder than adults.
2/2
@augieray I just wish there were at least periodic testing experiments to recalibrate case rates to wastewater levels. Is the lag still the same? The output per case? Output per variant?
As is, it feels like the only USA warning system is hospital personnel anecdotally telling family and friends to stop going to concerts around each crest.
-
@augieray I just wish there were at least periodic testing experiments to recalibrate case rates to wastewater levels. Is the lag still the same? The output per case? Output per variant?
As is, it feels like the only USA warning system is hospital personnel anecdotally telling family and friends to stop going to concerts around each crest.
@PizzaDemon I get it, but given low hospitalizations and declining surges, there's not much reason to think there's a giant difference in transmissibility or severity. If anything, all signs point to past infections and vaccinations driving down acute and infection risks (until or if we get a serious mutation.)
-
R relay@relay.mycrowd.ca shared this topic
