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  3. Lolwut: “Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis?

Lolwut: “Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis?

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  • kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK kcarruthers@infosec.exchange

    Lolwut: “Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis?

    AI simulations shaped Operation Epic Fury. 7 planning assumptions failed in 23 days as the Iran war defied every AI prediction.”

    Link Preview Image
    Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis? | House of Saud

    AI sycophancy, RLHF bias, and Ender's Foundry simulations shaped Operation Epic Fury. 7 planning assumptions failed in 23 days as the Iran war defied every AI prediction.

    favicon

    House of Saud (houseofsaud.com)

    ghostonthehalfshell@masto.aiG This user is from outside of this forum
    ghostonthehalfshell@masto.aiG This user is from outside of this forum
    ghostonthehalfshell@masto.ai
    wrote last edited by
    #12

    RE: https://neuromatch.social/@jonny/116325053467318924

    @kcarruthers

    Did you catch the news earlier that Claude was being used to provide targeting information?

    I can see why Anthropic was having a shit fit over legality, but the totalitarian guy running the White House fretting over laws as woke.

    kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK 1 Reply Last reply
    0
    • kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK kcarruthers@infosec.exchange

      Lolwut: “Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis?

      AI simulations shaped Operation Epic Fury. 7 planning assumptions failed in 23 days as the Iran war defied every AI prediction.”

      Link Preview Image
      Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis? | House of Saud

      AI sycophancy, RLHF bias, and Ender's Foundry simulations shaped Operation Epic Fury. 7 planning assumptions failed in 23 days as the Iran war defied every AI prediction.

      favicon

      House of Saud (houseofsaud.com)

      gnoll110@ruby.socialG This user is from outside of this forum
      gnoll110@ruby.socialG This user is from outside of this forum
      gnoll110@ruby.social
      wrote last edited by
      #13

      @kcarruthers

      The trouble with a decapitation strike is if your enemy has broken itself down into multiple cells and has commands to 'keep following most recent commands until a next leadership issues new orders'.

      kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK 1 Reply Last reply
      0
      • ghostonthehalfshell@masto.aiG ghostonthehalfshell@masto.ai

        RE: https://neuromatch.social/@jonny/116325053467318924

        @kcarruthers

        Did you catch the news earlier that Claude was being used to provide targeting information?

        I can see why Anthropic was having a shit fit over legality, but the totalitarian guy running the White House fretting over laws as woke.

        kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK This user is from outside of this forum
        kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK This user is from outside of this forum
        kcarruthers@infosec.exchange
        wrote last edited by
        #14

        @GhostOnTheHalfShell yeah I saw that

        1 Reply Last reply
        0
        • shiitaketoast@beige.partyS shiitaketoast@beige.party

          @kcarruthers On the one hand, this explains a lot of things. Like how SECDEF didn’t understand that bombing the capital of a country wouldn’t win them friends, and that Iran—who famously sent children to the front lines in the Iran Iraq war—wouldn’t fold easily, and would be willing to suffer the closure of the strait of Hormuz.
          On the other hand, holy shit! What the actual torment nexus fuck?
          Thirdly, the US is now considered an unreliable ally (although ask the Kurds…)

          kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK This user is from outside of this forum
          kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK This user is from outside of this forum
          kcarruthers@infosec.exchange
          wrote last edited by
          #15

          @ShiitakeToast IKR YMMV with USA

          1 Reply Last reply
          0
          • dejahentendu@dice.campD dejahentendu@dice.camp

            @Rataunderground @kcarruthers
            Not all false beliefs reach the level of psychosis. Believing someone who's lying to you is generally regarded as being misled, lied to, or a lack of confirming the conclusions. Still totally different. I can hardly believe that the war models suggested by the AI actually led to a psychotic break with reality.

            kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK This user is from outside of this forum
            kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK This user is from outside of this forum
            kcarruthers@infosec.exchange
            wrote last edited by
            #16

            @DejahEntendu @Rataunderground pretty sure it was more of a religious psychosis than an AI psychosis #JustSaying

            1 Reply Last reply
            0
            • dejahentendu@dice.campD dejahentendu@dice.camp

              @kcarruthers
              I was just coming to say that I knew it wasn't your language. I'm sorry for yelling at you. Clearly I find the language problematic and I hate that people just accept it.

              kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK This user is from outside of this forum
              kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK This user is from outside of this forum
              kcarruthers@infosec.exchange
              wrote last edited by
              #17

              @DejahEntendu IKR that is why it was in "quotes"

              1 Reply Last reply
              0
              • gnoll110@ruby.socialG gnoll110@ruby.social

                @kcarruthers

                The trouble with a decapitation strike is if your enemy has broken itself down into multiple cells and has commands to 'keep following most recent commands until a next leadership issues new orders'.

                kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK This user is from outside of this forum
                kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK This user is from outside of this forum
                kcarruthers@infosec.exchange
                wrote last edited by
                #18

                @gnoll110 it is almost like they expected the Israelis to do that 👀

                1 Reply Last reply
                0
                • aj@gts.sadauskas.id.auA aj@gts.sadauskas.id.au

                  @kcarruthers Just astounding. We really are in the Idiocracy timeline, aren't we?

                  Hesgeth didn't just leave all the war planning to a Palantir AI system based on Claude.

                  He insisted that all the guardrails were "woke" and must be switched off.

                  And he listened to Claude's analysis over the advice of experienced intelligence officers, who warned that removing the dictator was unlikely to bring down the regime, or that Iran could restrict oil supply.

                  From the article:

                  "Hegseth made his philosophy explicit at SpaceX in mid-January: “We will judge AI models on this standard alone: factually accurate, mission-relevant, without ideological constraints that limit lawful military applications. Department of War AI will not be woke.”

                  "The phrase “ideological constraints” performed significant rhetorical work. Safety filters designed to prevent AI hallucinations, sycophantic validation of flawed premises, and overconfident probability estimates were recast as political obstacles — “woke” limitations imposed by Silicon Valley liberals on America’s warfighters. The distinction between a guardrail that prevents an AI from endorsing a genocide and a guardrail that prevents an AI from inflating a strike’s predicted success rate was erased in a single speech.
                  ...
                  "AI planning models assumed decapitating the senior leadership would trigger cascading institutional failure — IRGC fracture, Assembly of Experts deadlock, pro-reform street protests. Instead, the regime’s mosaic defence architecture — designed to survive exactly this scenario — activated as intended. By March 9, Mojtaba Khamenei had been installed as the new supreme leader, having reportedly survived the airstrike that killed his father by minutes.

                  "The National Intelligence Council had assessed beforehand that “even a large-scale assault would probably not collapse Iran’s clerical-military order.” This assessment had little impact. The polished, high-confidence outputs of AI simulation models proved more compelling to decision-makers than the hedged, probabilistic language of traditional intelligence analysis. As Foreign Policy noted, the succession “signals regime exhaustion” but not regime death — the IRGC backed continuity precisely because it was preferable to the chaos American planners expected to exploit."

                  https://houseofsaud.com/iran-war-ai-psychosis-sycophancy-rlhf/

                  sister_ratched@toot.communityS This user is from outside of this forum
                  sister_ratched@toot.communityS This user is from outside of this forum
                  sister_ratched@toot.community
                  wrote last edited by
                  #19

                  @aj @kcarruthers Mind boggling.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  0
                  • aj@gts.sadauskas.id.auA aj@gts.sadauskas.id.au

                    @kcarruthers Just astounding. We really are in the Idiocracy timeline, aren't we?

                    Hesgeth didn't just leave all the war planning to a Palantir AI system based on Claude.

                    He insisted that all the guardrails were "woke" and must be switched off.

                    And he listened to Claude's analysis over the advice of experienced intelligence officers, who warned that removing the dictator was unlikely to bring down the regime, or that Iran could restrict oil supply.

                    From the article:

                    "Hegseth made his philosophy explicit at SpaceX in mid-January: “We will judge AI models on this standard alone: factually accurate, mission-relevant, without ideological constraints that limit lawful military applications. Department of War AI will not be woke.”

                    "The phrase “ideological constraints” performed significant rhetorical work. Safety filters designed to prevent AI hallucinations, sycophantic validation of flawed premises, and overconfident probability estimates were recast as political obstacles — “woke” limitations imposed by Silicon Valley liberals on America’s warfighters. The distinction between a guardrail that prevents an AI from endorsing a genocide and a guardrail that prevents an AI from inflating a strike’s predicted success rate was erased in a single speech.
                    ...
                    "AI planning models assumed decapitating the senior leadership would trigger cascading institutional failure — IRGC fracture, Assembly of Experts deadlock, pro-reform street protests. Instead, the regime’s mosaic defence architecture — designed to survive exactly this scenario — activated as intended. By March 9, Mojtaba Khamenei had been installed as the new supreme leader, having reportedly survived the airstrike that killed his father by minutes.

                    "The National Intelligence Council had assessed beforehand that “even a large-scale assault would probably not collapse Iran’s clerical-military order.” This assessment had little impact. The polished, high-confidence outputs of AI simulation models proved more compelling to decision-makers than the hedged, probabilistic language of traditional intelligence analysis. As Foreign Policy noted, the succession “signals regime exhaustion” but not regime death — the IRGC backed continuity precisely because it was preferable to the chaos American planners expected to exploit."

                    https://houseofsaud.com/iran-war-ai-psychosis-sycophancy-rlhf/

                    goss@c.imG This user is from outside of this forum
                    goss@c.imG This user is from outside of this forum
                    goss@c.im
                    wrote last edited by
                    #20

                    @aj @kcarruthers
                    Following in the foosteps of McNamara.
                    Next up: Conscription with lowered fitness standards.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    0
                    • aj@gts.sadauskas.id.auA aj@gts.sadauskas.id.au

                      @kcarruthers Just astounding. We really are in the Idiocracy timeline, aren't we?

                      Hesgeth didn't just leave all the war planning to a Palantir AI system based on Claude.

                      He insisted that all the guardrails were "woke" and must be switched off.

                      And he listened to Claude's analysis over the advice of experienced intelligence officers, who warned that removing the dictator was unlikely to bring down the regime, or that Iran could restrict oil supply.

                      From the article:

                      "Hegseth made his philosophy explicit at SpaceX in mid-January: “We will judge AI models on this standard alone: factually accurate, mission-relevant, without ideological constraints that limit lawful military applications. Department of War AI will not be woke.”

                      "The phrase “ideological constraints” performed significant rhetorical work. Safety filters designed to prevent AI hallucinations, sycophantic validation of flawed premises, and overconfident probability estimates were recast as political obstacles — “woke” limitations imposed by Silicon Valley liberals on America’s warfighters. The distinction between a guardrail that prevents an AI from endorsing a genocide and a guardrail that prevents an AI from inflating a strike’s predicted success rate was erased in a single speech.
                      ...
                      "AI planning models assumed decapitating the senior leadership would trigger cascading institutional failure — IRGC fracture, Assembly of Experts deadlock, pro-reform street protests. Instead, the regime’s mosaic defence architecture — designed to survive exactly this scenario — activated as intended. By March 9, Mojtaba Khamenei had been installed as the new supreme leader, having reportedly survived the airstrike that killed his father by minutes.

                      "The National Intelligence Council had assessed beforehand that “even a large-scale assault would probably not collapse Iran’s clerical-military order.” This assessment had little impact. The polished, high-confidence outputs of AI simulation models proved more compelling to decision-makers than the hedged, probabilistic language of traditional intelligence analysis. As Foreign Policy noted, the succession “signals regime exhaustion” but not regime death — the IRGC backed continuity precisely because it was preferable to the chaos American planners expected to exploit."

                      https://houseofsaud.com/iran-war-ai-psychosis-sycophancy-rlhf/

                      msdropbear42@infosec.spaceM This user is from outside of this forum
                      msdropbear42@infosec.spaceM This user is from outside of this forum
                      msdropbear42@infosec.space
                      wrote last edited by
                      #21

                      @aj @kcarruthers yeah but look, in fairness to the poor hard done by codger, he rooly is learning & growing... this time he did not invite any journos into his secret chats...

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      0
                      • kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK kcarruthers@infosec.exchange

                        Lolwut: “Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis?

                        AI simulations shaped Operation Epic Fury. 7 planning assumptions failed in 23 days as the Iran war defied every AI prediction.”

                        Link Preview Image
                        Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis? | House of Saud

                        AI sycophancy, RLHF bias, and Ender's Foundry simulations shaped Operation Epic Fury. 7 planning assumptions failed in 23 days as the Iran war defied every AI prediction.

                        favicon

                        House of Saud (houseofsaud.com)

                        proedie@mastodon.greenP This user is from outside of this forum
                        proedie@mastodon.greenP This user is from outside of this forum
                        proedie@mastodon.green
                        wrote last edited by
                        #22

                        @kcarruthers Not exactly a trustworthy source, but still: LOL

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        0
                        • processparsnip@mastodon.ieP This user is from outside of this forum
                          processparsnip@mastodon.ieP This user is from outside of this forum
                          processparsnip@mastodon.ie
                          wrote last edited by
                          #23

                          @C0rn3lius definitely.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          0
                          • kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK kcarruthers@infosec.exchange

                            Lolwut: “Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis?

                            AI simulations shaped Operation Epic Fury. 7 planning assumptions failed in 23 days as the Iran war defied every AI prediction.”

                            Link Preview Image
                            Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis? | House of Saud

                            AI sycophancy, RLHF bias, and Ender's Foundry simulations shaped Operation Epic Fury. 7 planning assumptions failed in 23 days as the Iran war defied every AI prediction.

                            favicon

                            House of Saud (houseofsaud.com)

                            hydreprever@mathstodon.xyzH This user is from outside of this forum
                            hydreprever@mathstodon.xyzH This user is from outside of this forum
                            hydreprever@mathstodon.xyz
                            wrote last edited by
                            #24

                            @kcarruthers lol

                            Link Preview Image
                            kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK 1 Reply Last reply
                            0
                            • hydreprever@mathstodon.xyzH hydreprever@mathstodon.xyz

                              @kcarruthers lol

                              Link Preview Image
                              kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK This user is from outside of this forum
                              kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK This user is from outside of this forum
                              kcarruthers@infosec.exchange
                              wrote last edited by
                              #25

                              @HydrePrever yup - but who can even trust the alleged ai checkers too 🤷‍♀️

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              0
                              • kcarruthers@infosec.exchangeK kcarruthers@infosec.exchange

                                Lolwut: “Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis?

                                AI simulations shaped Operation Epic Fury. 7 planning assumptions failed in 23 days as the Iran war defied every AI prediction.”

                                Link Preview Image
                                Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis? | House of Saud

                                AI sycophancy, RLHF bias, and Ender's Foundry simulations shaped Operation Epic Fury. 7 planning assumptions failed in 23 days as the Iran war defied every AI prediction.

                                favicon

                                House of Saud (houseofsaud.com)

                                chemicaleyeguy@mstdn.scienceC This user is from outside of this forum
                                chemicaleyeguy@mstdn.scienceC This user is from outside of this forum
                                chemicaleyeguy@mstdn.science
                                wrote last edited by
                                #26

                                @kcarruthers #AI helped to derail the #FelonsCrusade in #Iran , starting with bombing the girls school in #Minab. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/iran-school-attack-ai-investigation-b2937456.html

                                But it was *started* by two felons who want to stay out of jail. https://newrepublic.com/post/207228/donald-trump-benjamin-netanyahu-iran

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                0
                                • aj@gts.sadauskas.id.auA aj@gts.sadauskas.id.au

                                  @kcarruthers Just astounding. We really are in the Idiocracy timeline, aren't we?

                                  Hesgeth didn't just leave all the war planning to a Palantir AI system based on Claude.

                                  He insisted that all the guardrails were "woke" and must be switched off.

                                  And he listened to Claude's analysis over the advice of experienced intelligence officers, who warned that removing the dictator was unlikely to bring down the regime, or that Iran could restrict oil supply.

                                  From the article:

                                  "Hegseth made his philosophy explicit at SpaceX in mid-January: “We will judge AI models on this standard alone: factually accurate, mission-relevant, without ideological constraints that limit lawful military applications. Department of War AI will not be woke.”

                                  "The phrase “ideological constraints” performed significant rhetorical work. Safety filters designed to prevent AI hallucinations, sycophantic validation of flawed premises, and overconfident probability estimates were recast as political obstacles — “woke” limitations imposed by Silicon Valley liberals on America’s warfighters. The distinction between a guardrail that prevents an AI from endorsing a genocide and a guardrail that prevents an AI from inflating a strike’s predicted success rate was erased in a single speech.
                                  ...
                                  "AI planning models assumed decapitating the senior leadership would trigger cascading institutional failure — IRGC fracture, Assembly of Experts deadlock, pro-reform street protests. Instead, the regime’s mosaic defence architecture — designed to survive exactly this scenario — activated as intended. By March 9, Mojtaba Khamenei had been installed as the new supreme leader, having reportedly survived the airstrike that killed his father by minutes.

                                  "The National Intelligence Council had assessed beforehand that “even a large-scale assault would probably not collapse Iran’s clerical-military order.” This assessment had little impact. The polished, high-confidence outputs of AI simulation models proved more compelling to decision-makers than the hedged, probabilistic language of traditional intelligence analysis. As Foreign Policy noted, the succession “signals regime exhaustion” but not regime death — the IRGC backed continuity precisely because it was preferable to the chaos American planners expected to exploit."

                                  https://houseofsaud.com/iran-war-ai-psychosis-sycophancy-rlhf/

                                  nmba@mstdn.caN This user is from outside of this forum
                                  nmba@mstdn.caN This user is from outside of this forum
                                  nmba@mstdn.ca
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #27

                                  @aj @kcarruthers
                                  Appears that Ai has won the first battle against humanity.

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