we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
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@distrowatch @davidgerard Look at the finances involved. It's a classic case of circular financing. It'll pop. My estimate is sooner than David's.
@distrowatch @davidgerard I think he's about right under the assumption of a more or less constant underlying economy. But I think everybody's finances are about to get a lot worse.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard they'll hire half the workers back (amongst those who haven't disappeared to go goat farming in the woods) and tell them to deliver at twice their normal output (perhaps with shittier local models) until the remaining programmers also decide to go goat farming in the woods
lather, rinse, repeat, until the loss of good programmers combined with the existential crisis of climate change makes large scale computer work obsolete
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@effariwhy @davidgerard what could we do to make them suffer?
@Reinald @effariwhy @davidgerard Accountability would be a good goal to start with. Alas, with their capture and dismantling of the U.S. govt, that accountability isn’t coming from the U.S.
The E.U. Is understandably in a defensive mode but will take limited action, mostly around banking.
That leaves China, which as the US’s largest creditor is likely to get involved when it’s clear the fascist kleptocracy in the US will prevent repayment of what is owed. China had a plan before Evergrande imploded; they probably have plans for us too.
I would just like for us to stop killing people and arming other people who are killing people, please.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard lol yeah a lot of people seem to be pretending this wont happen the same way all these tech companies pretend there would be free effortless economic recovery after 2020 that never came and now they have to pretend the layoffs are because of ai
no one wants to just look at the numbers and conclude what they convey.
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@davidgerard They will come up with a bullshit job name for "shoveling the shit left behind AI" like Automation Output Enhancer and then hire a bunch of recent CS grads and other Gen Z'ers who are desperate for real work for $45k/year and convince them that 60 hours a week is normal.
@MichaelTBacon @davidgerard C'mon, you know exactly what comes next.
Too big to fail. Government bailouts. -
@davidgerard @audunmb @tante I wonder if there are any programming languages that are so obscure the ChatterBots don't know anything about them? *Breaks out the SNOBOL manual.. *
@davidgerard @audunmb @tante BrainFuck FizzBuzz has defeated Claude, or at least proved a bit too complicated for it to cobble something together via free credits.
Please ignore the massive data centre fire in .NL. Nothing to see here! Move along now...
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@audunmb currently it's still heavily subsidised, and training is expensive so the local models will only go out of date.
I originally thought local LLMs for coding would be what LLMs were left with after the bubble pop, but @tante pointed out they'll all quickly go out of date.
We already see current maintained chatbot models have a habit of putting in unfavoured, obsolete and even deprecated code constructs cos that's overwhelmingly what the model was trained on.
@davidgerard @audunmb @tante I'm pretty sure Chinese companies have the money to subsidize getting full control over every business process, every project plan, and every single line of code of US companies a little while longer.
After that, it doesn't really matter what those US companies want or don't want to do.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard@circumstances.run I would not be surprised if the AI bubble pop ends up being worse than the great depression. I've moved the majority of my investments over to cash and bonds
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R relay@relay.mycrowd.ca shared this topic
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@DBG3D @davidgerard i tried to ask it something simple yet weird enough it couldn't just regurgitate from examples, i can't tell if it's good or not, but feel free to have a look https://chatgpt.com/share/69fc916c-aee4-8333-9534-7f76f1a78687
Oh no, no, no, nooo...
It was a sarcasm
️ Indicating that FreePascal maybe is the last multiplatform compiler language free of this #AISlop.Furthermore your link only opens a white clean session of that hell site. But do not bother to find out why.
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@davidgerard@circumstances.run I would not be surprised if the AI bubble pop ends up being worse than the great depression. I've moved the majority of my investments over to cash and bonds
@PurpleStephyr @davidgerard just an FYI corporate bonds are worthless in bankruptcy.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
They'll contract with Accenture and IBM to 'rebiild and modernize' and end up paying double what they were per AI agent (about triple what they were paying per original employee).
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Oh no, no, no, nooo...
It was a sarcasm
️ Indicating that FreePascal maybe is the last multiplatform compiler language free of this #AISlop.Furthermore your link only opens a white clean session of that hell site. But do not bother to find out why.
@DBG3D @davidgerard sorry, but i don't think any existing language hasn't been covered much beyond the extent of its actual popularity.
i know jane street, a finance firm famous for being an OCaml house (and making ungodly profit), was disappointed by the support last year or so, and trained their own models, but they ar. very much a special place.
People who want that will have to invent them after the bubble pops.
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@aaribaud @davidgerard @audunmb @tante : « eating your own shit is never healthy »
https://ploum.net/2022-12-05-drowning-in-ai-generated-garbage.html (written in 2022)
@ploum "Written in 2022". Shit, have we been in this dumpster fire almost four years already? @aaribaud @davidgerard @audunmb @tante
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard Consider then a good time to #AbolishCaptialism and #RedistributeWealth in return for not turning #Billiomaires' pronouns into was/were and instead merely sentencing them to lifetime community service without parole…
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@jalefkowit @davidgerard @audunmb @tante Honestly if people stopped making new Javascript frameworks that I'm supposed to have an opinion about and am old-fashioned if I don't use, I would regard that as a massive win.
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@davidgerard I guess it depends on how much damage is done to internal codebases. Most of the time we'll prefer to start over from scratch is my guess. New winners and losers will emerge from that rubble. And the big companies will say they can't fail, or grumble, grumble national security.
@Fulk_It @davidgerard For sure it will be more ”effiecient” to run a codebase that as closely as possible matches both the tokeniser and the training data of the model.
You would need a more expensive model to ”jump over the hoops” of your legacy codebase, that breaks every time the context window is compacted.
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I have some optimism here that we won't actually lose all the programmers, because so many of us do it for the fun and the intellectual challenge. There's little of that in letting an LLM generate bad code on your behalf. So the programmers who are left will be the ones who genuinely enjoy it - probably a lot of hobbyists and open-sourcers alongside industry devs who have enough job security to resist using LLMs (which they know will just get in their way).
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard let's see.. skilled contractors will be too expensive.. their previous employees will tell them some variation of "die in a fire"... So.. untrained, unsupervised, entry-level people being paid at as close to minimum wage as they can. They will not have any idea how anything works. Nor will they be able to understand the existing code. So, instead of fixing what is there, they will slather layer upon layer of new (also buggy) code on top of the existing mess to try to patch/correct the problems after the fact.
(Note: I saw exactly this happen back in the 90s.. so there is an existence proof)
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard I think the "AI" bubble is one of the more obvious aspects of a long-developing system of social crises coming to a head. "GenAI" is bent on absorbing everything and turning it into slime.
I think there may be opportunities coming out of its inevitable collapse. Part of the difficulty for any radical movement has been that any success gets co-opted or integrated; nothing remains ours. A positive response to the collapse of the "AI" bubble would have to be concerned with things like authenticity and human dignity, with resisting that co-optation.
In cyberpunk, the point is the oppressed survive. We want thriving, not just survival, of course.
There are also the reactionary responses, fantasies of return to an idealized past. Fascism is a species of reaction, that embraces aspects of the new, but older forms of reaction will likely become more prominent.
I imagine decades to come will be filled with grief and profound loss, but some hope if we work towards it.
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