we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard I think they'll just outsource to whoever firm can say they fit that description of still knowing shit, but of course there's not a single consulting firm that hasn't gone AI-First
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@davidgerard I think the idea that the bubble will pop is the optimistic viewpoint. I think it's more likely we will increasingly see money and resources poured into AI technologies for the next 5-10 years, either through promises of growth or government buy-ins/bail-outs.
If the AI bubble goes away it won't be with a pop, but a gradual decrease in growth until it levels.
@distrowatch @davidgerard Look at the finances involved. It's a classic case of circular financing. It'll pop. My estimate is sooner than David's.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
In the US, there is going to be a huge shift to land and mineral speculation in a major socioeconomic & public health crisis―with zero regulations. Full blown guided-age thievery.
People want to buy the United States for pennies on the dollar.
The World for Sale
'Gripping' Economist 'Jaw-dropping' Sunday Times 'Riveting' Financial Times 'Fascinating' Reuters We are entering an age of energy crises and food shortages. This book reveals why. Meet the swashbuckling traders who supply the world with energy, food and metal. Their goal: To make billions by buying and selling raw materials - flogging Russian gas to Europe, Saudi oil to America and Congolese metals to Silicon Valley. Their methods: Whatever it takes - whether funnelling cash to Vladimir Putin's sanction-stricken Kremlin, schmoozing Russian metal oligarchs after the collapse of the Soviet Union, or striking deals with the Libyan rebels at the height of the Arab Spring. These are the commodity traders. You've probably never heard of them. But, like it or not, you're one of their customers. *Shortlisted for the Financial Times & McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award* *A Financial Times and Economist Book of the Year* 'Shows how much money and global influence is concentrated in the hands of a tiny group . . . Remarkable . . . As the authors roam from oilfield to wheatfield, they reveal information so staggering you almost gasp' Sunday Times 'A globe-spanning corporate thriller, full of intrigue and double dealing . . . Changes how we see the world, often in horrifying ways' Spectator 'A rich archive of ripping yarns . . . The high level narrative is gripping enough. But it is the details of what these freewheeling companies actually got up to that give the book a thriller-like quality' Financial Times 'Some of the stories could be straight out of John le Carré. The difference is they're true' Andrew Neil
(www.penguin.co.uk)
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@distrowatch @davidgerard Look at the finances involved. It's a classic case of circular financing. It'll pop. My estimate is sooner than David's.
@distrowatch @davidgerard I think he's about right under the assumption of a more or less constant underlying economy. But I think everybody's finances are about to get a lot worse.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard they'll hire half the workers back (amongst those who haven't disappeared to go goat farming in the woods) and tell them to deliver at twice their normal output (perhaps with shittier local models) until the remaining programmers also decide to go goat farming in the woods
lather, rinse, repeat, until the loss of good programmers combined with the existential crisis of climate change makes large scale computer work obsolete
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@effariwhy @davidgerard what could we do to make them suffer?
@Reinald @effariwhy @davidgerard Accountability would be a good goal to start with. Alas, with their capture and dismantling of the U.S. govt, that accountability isn’t coming from the U.S.
The E.U. Is understandably in a defensive mode but will take limited action, mostly around banking.
That leaves China, which as the US’s largest creditor is likely to get involved when it’s clear the fascist kleptocracy in the US will prevent repayment of what is owed. China had a plan before Evergrande imploded; they probably have plans for us too.
I would just like for us to stop killing people and arming other people who are killing people, please.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard lol yeah a lot of people seem to be pretending this wont happen the same way all these tech companies pretend there would be free effortless economic recovery after 2020 that never came and now they have to pretend the layoffs are because of ai
no one wants to just look at the numbers and conclude what they convey.
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R relay@relay.infosec.exchange shared this topic
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@davidgerard They will come up with a bullshit job name for "shoveling the shit left behind AI" like Automation Output Enhancer and then hire a bunch of recent CS grads and other Gen Z'ers who are desperate for real work for $45k/year and convince them that 60 hours a week is normal.
@MichaelTBacon @davidgerard C'mon, you know exactly what comes next.
Too big to fail. Government bailouts. -
@davidgerard @audunmb @tante I wonder if there are any programming languages that are so obscure the ChatterBots don't know anything about them? *Breaks out the SNOBOL manual.. *
@davidgerard @audunmb @tante BrainFuck FizzBuzz has defeated Claude, or at least proved a bit too complicated for it to cobble something together via free credits.
Please ignore the massive data centre fire in .NL. Nothing to see here! Move along now...
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@audunmb currently it's still heavily subsidised, and training is expensive so the local models will only go out of date.
I originally thought local LLMs for coding would be what LLMs were left with after the bubble pop, but @tante pointed out they'll all quickly go out of date.
We already see current maintained chatbot models have a habit of putting in unfavoured, obsolete and even deprecated code constructs cos that's overwhelmingly what the model was trained on.
@davidgerard @audunmb @tante I'm pretty sure Chinese companies have the money to subsidize getting full control over every business process, every project plan, and every single line of code of US companies a little while longer.
After that, it doesn't really matter what those US companies want or don't want to do.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard@circumstances.run I would not be surprised if the AI bubble pop ends up being worse than the great depression. I've moved the majority of my investments over to cash and bonds
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R relay@relay.mycrowd.ca shared this topic
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@DBG3D @davidgerard i tried to ask it something simple yet weird enough it couldn't just regurgitate from examples, i can't tell if it's good or not, but feel free to have a look https://chatgpt.com/share/69fc916c-aee4-8333-9534-7f76f1a78687
Oh no, no, no, nooo...
It was a sarcasm
️ Indicating that FreePascal maybe is the last multiplatform compiler language free of this #AISlop.Furthermore your link only opens a white clean session of that hell site. But do not bother to find out why.
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@davidgerard@circumstances.run I would not be surprised if the AI bubble pop ends up being worse than the great depression. I've moved the majority of my investments over to cash and bonds
@PurpleStephyr @davidgerard just an FYI corporate bonds are worthless in bankruptcy.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
They'll contract with Accenture and IBM to 'rebiild and modernize' and end up paying double what they were per AI agent (about triple what they were paying per original employee).
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Oh no, no, no, nooo...
It was a sarcasm
️ Indicating that FreePascal maybe is the last multiplatform compiler language free of this #AISlop.Furthermore your link only opens a white clean session of that hell site. But do not bother to find out why.
@DBG3D @davidgerard sorry, but i don't think any existing language hasn't been covered much beyond the extent of its actual popularity.
i know jane street, a finance firm famous for being an OCaml house (and making ungodly profit), was disappointed by the support last year or so, and trained their own models, but they ar. very much a special place.
People who want that will have to invent them after the bubble pops.
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@aaribaud @davidgerard @audunmb @tante : « eating your own shit is never healthy »
https://ploum.net/2022-12-05-drowning-in-ai-generated-garbage.html (written in 2022)
@ploum "Written in 2022". Shit, have we been in this dumpster fire almost four years already? @aaribaud @davidgerard @audunmb @tante
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard Consider then a good time to #AbolishCaptialism and #RedistributeWealth in return for not turning #Billiomaires' pronouns into was/were and instead merely sentencing them to lifetime community service without parole…
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@jalefkowit @davidgerard @audunmb @tante Honestly if people stopped making new Javascript frameworks that I'm supposed to have an opinion about and am old-fashioned if I don't use, I would regard that as a massive win.
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@davidgerard I guess it depends on how much damage is done to internal codebases. Most of the time we'll prefer to start over from scratch is my guess. New winners and losers will emerge from that rubble. And the big companies will say they can't fail, or grumble, grumble national security.
@Fulk_It @davidgerard For sure it will be more ”effiecient” to run a codebase that as closely as possible matches both the tokeniser and the training data of the model.
You would need a more expensive model to ”jump over the hoops” of your legacy codebase, that breaks every time the context window is compacted.
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I have some optimism here that we won't actually lose all the programmers, because so many of us do it for the fun and the intellectual challenge. There's little of that in letting an LLM generate bad code on your behalf. So the programmers who are left will be the ones who genuinely enjoy it - probably a lot of hobbyists and open-sourcers alongside industry devs who have enough job security to resist using LLMs (which they know will just get in their way).
