we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard I'm still betting on a huge bailout to prevent an actual bubble pop, or at least delay it indefinitely.
Unfortunately LLMs work quite well for many coding tasks so the value of the technology is not zero (as opposed to crypto), and it will take a long time to figure out what that value actually is.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
Most academic economic pundits treat this bubble like the dot com or Railroad mania bubble, even though it’s more like Enron with a touch of GFC.
They are thinking that after a crash, there’ll be all this infrastructure laying around like the aftermath of dotcom.
Railroad and fiber optic infrastructure last something like 30 years. Data center components last 1 to 3.
There is no there, there for whatever survivors to swing in and pick up infrastructure for pennies on the dollar
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@davidgerard I agree that a depressing to rival the Great Depression is coming, but the ultra rich are not going to suffer like they should.
@effariwhy @davidgerard what could we do to make them suffer?
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@ploum @aaribaud @audunmb @tante see yesterday's Pivot, model collapse seems to be visibly hitting ChatGPT https://pivot-to-ai.com/2026/05/06/openai-chatgpt-goes-goblin-mode-let-none-say-model-collapse/
@davidgerard @ploum @aaribaud @audunmb @tante
Goblins, huh? I can’t help being reminded of Alexi Sales saying here comes the lobsters!
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard I think the idea that the bubble will pop is the optimistic viewpoint. I think it's more likely we will increasingly see money and resources poured into AI technologies for the next 5-10 years, either through promises of growth or government buy-ins/bail-outs.
If the AI bubble goes away it won't be with a pop, but a gradual decrease in growth until it levels.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
They will not hire the people who know how shit works.
They will try to make the few remaining such people clean up all shit, en passant.
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@davidgerard @ploum @aaribaud @audunmb @tante
Goblins, huh? I can’t help being reminded of Alexi Sales saying here comes the lobsters!
@GhostOnTheHalfShell @ploum @aaribaud @audunmb @tante openclaw, duh
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard I think they'll just outsource to whoever firm can say they fit that description of still knowing shit, but of course there's not a single consulting firm that hasn't gone AI-First
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@davidgerard I think the idea that the bubble will pop is the optimistic viewpoint. I think it's more likely we will increasingly see money and resources poured into AI technologies for the next 5-10 years, either through promises of growth or government buy-ins/bail-outs.
If the AI bubble goes away it won't be with a pop, but a gradual decrease in growth until it levels.
@distrowatch @davidgerard Look at the finances involved. It's a classic case of circular financing. It'll pop. My estimate is sooner than David's.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
In the US, there is going to be a huge shift to land and mineral speculation in a major socioeconomic & public health crisis―with zero regulations. Full blown guided-age thievery.
People want to buy the United States for pennies on the dollar.
The World for Sale
'Gripping' Economist 'Jaw-dropping' Sunday Times 'Riveting' Financial Times 'Fascinating' Reuters We are entering an age of energy crises and food shortages. This book reveals why. Meet the swashbuckling traders who supply the world with energy, food and metal. Their goal: To make billions by buying and selling raw materials - flogging Russian gas to Europe, Saudi oil to America and Congolese metals to Silicon Valley. Their methods: Whatever it takes - whether funnelling cash to Vladimir Putin's sanction-stricken Kremlin, schmoozing Russian metal oligarchs after the collapse of the Soviet Union, or striking deals with the Libyan rebels at the height of the Arab Spring. These are the commodity traders. You've probably never heard of them. But, like it or not, you're one of their customers. *Shortlisted for the Financial Times & McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award* *A Financial Times and Economist Book of the Year* 'Shows how much money and global influence is concentrated in the hands of a tiny group . . . Remarkable . . . As the authors roam from oilfield to wheatfield, they reveal information so staggering you almost gasp' Sunday Times 'A globe-spanning corporate thriller, full of intrigue and double dealing . . . Changes how we see the world, often in horrifying ways' Spectator 'A rich archive of ripping yarns . . . The high level narrative is gripping enough. But it is the details of what these freewheeling companies actually got up to that give the book a thriller-like quality' Financial Times 'Some of the stories could be straight out of John le Carré. The difference is they're true' Andrew Neil
(www.penguin.co.uk)
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@distrowatch @davidgerard Look at the finances involved. It's a classic case of circular financing. It'll pop. My estimate is sooner than David's.
@distrowatch @davidgerard I think he's about right under the assumption of a more or less constant underlying economy. But I think everybody's finances are about to get a lot worse.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard they'll hire half the workers back (amongst those who haven't disappeared to go goat farming in the woods) and tell them to deliver at twice their normal output (perhaps with shittier local models) until the remaining programmers also decide to go goat farming in the woods
lather, rinse, repeat, until the loss of good programmers combined with the existential crisis of climate change makes large scale computer work obsolete
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@effariwhy @davidgerard what could we do to make them suffer?
@Reinald @effariwhy @davidgerard Accountability would be a good goal to start with. Alas, with their capture and dismantling of the U.S. govt, that accountability isn’t coming from the U.S.
The E.U. Is understandably in a defensive mode but will take limited action, mostly around banking.
That leaves China, which as the US’s largest creditor is likely to get involved when it’s clear the fascist kleptocracy in the US will prevent repayment of what is owed. China had a plan before Evergrande imploded; they probably have plans for us too.
I would just like for us to stop killing people and arming other people who are killing people, please.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard lol yeah a lot of people seem to be pretending this wont happen the same way all these tech companies pretend there would be free effortless economic recovery after 2020 that never came and now they have to pretend the layoffs are because of ai
no one wants to just look at the numbers and conclude what they convey.
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R relay@relay.infosec.exchange shared this topic
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@davidgerard They will come up with a bullshit job name for "shoveling the shit left behind AI" like Automation Output Enhancer and then hire a bunch of recent CS grads and other Gen Z'ers who are desperate for real work for $45k/year and convince them that 60 hours a week is normal.
@MichaelTBacon @davidgerard C'mon, you know exactly what comes next.
Too big to fail. Government bailouts. -
@davidgerard @audunmb @tante I wonder if there are any programming languages that are so obscure the ChatterBots don't know anything about them? *Breaks out the SNOBOL manual.. *
@davidgerard @audunmb @tante BrainFuck FizzBuzz has defeated Claude, or at least proved a bit too complicated for it to cobble something together via free credits.
Please ignore the massive data centre fire in .NL. Nothing to see here! Move along now...
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@audunmb currently it's still heavily subsidised, and training is expensive so the local models will only go out of date.
I originally thought local LLMs for coding would be what LLMs were left with after the bubble pop, but @tante pointed out they'll all quickly go out of date.
We already see current maintained chatbot models have a habit of putting in unfavoured, obsolete and even deprecated code constructs cos that's overwhelmingly what the model was trained on.
@davidgerard @audunmb @tante I'm pretty sure Chinese companies have the money to subsidize getting full control over every business process, every project plan, and every single line of code of US companies a little while longer.
After that, it doesn't really matter what those US companies want or don't want to do.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard@circumstances.run I would not be surprised if the AI bubble pop ends up being worse than the great depression. I've moved the majority of my investments over to cash and bonds
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R relay@relay.mycrowd.ca shared this topic
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@DBG3D @davidgerard i tried to ask it something simple yet weird enough it couldn't just regurgitate from examples, i can't tell if it's good or not, but feel free to have a look https://chatgpt.com/share/69fc916c-aee4-8333-9534-7f76f1a78687
Oh no, no, no, nooo...
It was a sarcasm
️ Indicating that FreePascal maybe is the last multiplatform compiler language free of this #AISlop.Furthermore your link only opens a white clean session of that hell site. But do not bother to find out why.
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@davidgerard@circumstances.run I would not be surprised if the AI bubble pop ends up being worse than the great depression. I've moved the majority of my investments over to cash and bonds
@PurpleStephyr @davidgerard just an FYI corporate bonds are worthless in bankruptcy.
