we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard I agree that a depressing to rival the Great Depression is coming, but the ultra rich are not going to suffer like they should.
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@davidgerard @audunmb I also wonder how western states might feel about essentially all the code being generated in china, and then not read by anyone - while also not being lobbied by western cos. I mean, they were happy to wreck 5G and nerf millions of handsets for less.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard What series of events (if any) would cause you to revisit or revise this hypothesis?
For comparison: the "dot com bubble popped" in 2000, but this did not lead to people abandoning commerce on the internet. It just destroyed short-term value, but overall shook out the weak players and made room for better competitors.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard as the machine slaves fail, poverty will be declared a crime and slavery will be reintroduced.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard now that you mentioned it, I think those companies will collapse/significantly shrink and a new class of companies will emerge. Same as what happened with dot-com bubble.
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@aaribaud @davidgerard @audunmb @tante : « eating your own shit is never healthy »
https://ploum.net/2022-12-05-drowning-in-ai-generated-garbage.html (written in 2022)
@ploum @aaribaud @davidgerard @audunmb @tante ”We were expecting killing robots, we didn’t realise we were drowned in AI generated garbage. We will never fight laser wearing Terminators. Instead, we have to outsmart algorithms which are making us dumb enough to fight one against the other.”
Great note on the order of things.
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@davidgerard They will come up with a bullshit job name for "shoveling the shit left behind AI" like Automation Output Enhancer and then hire a bunch of recent CS grads and other Gen Z'ers who are desperate for real work for $45k/year and convince them that 60 hours a week is normal.
They'll burn through people like mad with the constant crisis management.
The blame-fire-replace cycle will be severe.
They'll see no way to dig themselves out of the problem they've put themselves in. Making it worse will be their only option (as far as they see).
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard I'm still betting on a huge bailout to prevent an actual bubble pop, or at least delay it indefinitely.
Unfortunately LLMs work quite well for many coding tasks so the value of the technology is not zero (as opposed to crypto), and it will take a long time to figure out what that value actually is.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
Most academic economic pundits treat this bubble like the dot com or Railroad mania bubble, even though it’s more like Enron with a touch of GFC.
They are thinking that after a crash, there’ll be all this infrastructure laying around like the aftermath of dotcom.
Railroad and fiber optic infrastructure last something like 30 years. Data center components last 1 to 3.
There is no there, there for whatever survivors to swing in and pick up infrastructure for pennies on the dollar
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@davidgerard I agree that a depressing to rival the Great Depression is coming, but the ultra rich are not going to suffer like they should.
@effariwhy @davidgerard what could we do to make them suffer?
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@ploum @aaribaud @audunmb @tante see yesterday's Pivot, model collapse seems to be visibly hitting ChatGPT https://pivot-to-ai.com/2026/05/06/openai-chatgpt-goes-goblin-mode-let-none-say-model-collapse/
@davidgerard @ploum @aaribaud @audunmb @tante
Goblins, huh? I can’t help being reminded of Alexi Sales saying here comes the lobsters!
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard I think the idea that the bubble will pop is the optimistic viewpoint. I think it's more likely we will increasingly see money and resources poured into AI technologies for the next 5-10 years, either through promises of growth or government buy-ins/bail-outs.
If the AI bubble goes away it won't be with a pop, but a gradual decrease in growth until it levels.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
They will not hire the people who know how shit works.
They will try to make the few remaining such people clean up all shit, en passant.
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@davidgerard @ploum @aaribaud @audunmb @tante
Goblins, huh? I can’t help being reminded of Alexi Sales saying here comes the lobsters!
@GhostOnTheHalfShell @ploum @aaribaud @audunmb @tante openclaw, duh
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard I think they'll just outsource to whoever firm can say they fit that description of still knowing shit, but of course there's not a single consulting firm that hasn't gone AI-First
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@davidgerard I think the idea that the bubble will pop is the optimistic viewpoint. I think it's more likely we will increasingly see money and resources poured into AI technologies for the next 5-10 years, either through promises of growth or government buy-ins/bail-outs.
If the AI bubble goes away it won't be with a pop, but a gradual decrease in growth until it levels.
@distrowatch @davidgerard Look at the finances involved. It's a classic case of circular financing. It'll pop. My estimate is sooner than David's.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
In the US, there is going to be a huge shift to land and mineral speculation in a major socioeconomic & public health crisis―with zero regulations. Full blown guided-age thievery.
People want to buy the United States for pennies on the dollar.
The World for Sale
'Gripping' Economist 'Jaw-dropping' Sunday Times 'Riveting' Financial Times 'Fascinating' Reuters We are entering an age of energy crises and food shortages. This book reveals why. Meet the swashbuckling traders who supply the world with energy, food and metal. Their goal: To make billions by buying and selling raw materials - flogging Russian gas to Europe, Saudi oil to America and Congolese metals to Silicon Valley. Their methods: Whatever it takes - whether funnelling cash to Vladimir Putin's sanction-stricken Kremlin, schmoozing Russian metal oligarchs after the collapse of the Soviet Union, or striking deals with the Libyan rebels at the height of the Arab Spring. These are the commodity traders. You've probably never heard of them. But, like it or not, you're one of their customers. *Shortlisted for the Financial Times & McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award* *A Financial Times and Economist Book of the Year* 'Shows how much money and global influence is concentrated in the hands of a tiny group . . . Remarkable . . . As the authors roam from oilfield to wheatfield, they reveal information so staggering you almost gasp' Sunday Times 'A globe-spanning corporate thriller, full of intrigue and double dealing . . . Changes how we see the world, often in horrifying ways' Spectator 'A rich archive of ripping yarns . . . The high level narrative is gripping enough. But it is the details of what these freewheeling companies actually got up to that give the book a thriller-like quality' Financial Times 'Some of the stories could be straight out of John le Carré. The difference is they're true' Andrew Neil
(www.penguin.co.uk)
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@distrowatch @davidgerard Look at the finances involved. It's a classic case of circular financing. It'll pop. My estimate is sooner than David's.
@distrowatch @davidgerard I think he's about right under the assumption of a more or less constant underlying economy. But I think everybody's finances are about to get a lot worse.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard they'll hire half the workers back (amongst those who haven't disappeared to go goat farming in the woods) and tell them to deliver at twice their normal output (perhaps with shittier local models) until the remaining programmers also decide to go goat farming in the woods
lather, rinse, repeat, until the loss of good programmers combined with the existential crisis of climate change makes large scale computer work obsolete
