Had a lot of fun with my stats students today.
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@futurebird @Bumblefish There's literally no way to say whether a list of numbers is random or not (1, 1, 1, 1, etc can plausibly be a random sequence for all we know), though you can establish likelihoods by looking at the distribution.
You *can* make an argument for one of these lists being random like a dice roll and the other being much less likely to be generated in that way.
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@futurebird @Bumblefish The only way you could determine that something’s not random is if a pattern emerges in the data set. Even still, statistically, it is probable for a CSPRNG with good entropy to produce a random data set that looks like it’s not random—unlikely, but probable.
Only one of these lists could *plausibly* be from rolling dice.
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@futurebird @Bumblefish The only way you could determine that something’s not random is if a pattern emerges in the data set. Even still, statistically, it is probable for a CSPRNG with good entropy to produce a random data set that looks like it’s not random—unlikely, but probable.
@futurebird @Bumblefish I have a UUID-generating library that, under certain conditions, could generate the same identical UUIDs because the CSPRNG it used ended up reusing the same entropy seed, unless the server was restarted. That was a *fun* bug to investigate and fix.
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Only one of these lists could *plausibly* be from rolling dice.
@futurebird @Bumblefish Based on the statistical distribution of the dice rolls?
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Which one is random?
(data sets are 100 numbers 1 to 6)listA=[2,3,5,1,2,2,4,2,4,5,2,3,3,4,5,6,4,2,6,2,2,1,3,4,5,5,6,3,3,6,1,4,2,1,4,5,2,2,3,3,3,5,6,3,2,4,5,5,1,1,1,6,1,4,3,5,5,3,1,1,1,6,1,4,6,6,3,6,6,2,4,4,4,5,1,5,6,2,6,1,1,2,4,2,2,3,4,4,5,6,1,3,3,3,5,4,6,5,1,6]
listB=[4,2,5,6,3,5,3,1,3,4,2,3,4,3,4,5,5,1,3,3,2,1,1,6,1,3,2,2,2,6,1,5,6,3,6,3,2,3,2,4,6,1,1,6,3,2,4,1,6,1,3,1,5,6,2,3,3,5,1,6,4,5,2,5,1,1,5,3,6,2,3,3,6,5,2,3,3,1,6,3,2,3,2,1,6,6,4,4,6,2,4,5,4,5,3,4,6,5,3,2]
@futurebird @Bumblefish I like list A for random and list B for “planned random”.
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Which one is random?
(data sets are 100 numbers 1 to 6)listA=[2,3,5,1,2,2,4,2,4,5,2,3,3,4,5,6,4,2,6,2,2,1,3,4,5,5,6,3,3,6,1,4,2,1,4,5,2,2,3,3,3,5,6,3,2,4,5,5,1,1,1,6,1,4,3,5,5,3,1,1,1,6,1,4,6,6,3,6,6,2,4,4,4,5,1,5,6,2,6,1,1,2,4,2,2,3,4,4,5,6,1,3,3,3,5,4,6,5,1,6]
listB=[4,2,5,6,3,5,3,1,3,4,2,3,4,3,4,5,5,1,3,3,2,1,1,6,1,3,2,2,2,6,1,5,6,3,6,3,2,3,2,4,6,1,1,6,3,2,4,1,6,1,3,1,5,6,2,3,3,5,1,6,4,5,2,5,1,1,5,3,6,2,3,3,6,5,2,3,3,1,6,3,2,3,2,1,6,6,4,4,6,2,4,5,4,5,3,4,6,5,3,2]
@futurebird
just to clarify what she means is as if from random unbiased 6 sided die rolls. -
The LLM is like a little box of computer horrors that we peer into from time to time.
I'm sorry but the whole interface is just so silly.
You ask for random numbers with sentences and it pretends to give them to you? What are we doooooing?
@futurebird the first episode of Numb3rs covered the appearance of randomness vs true randomness. I would not have remember that but watched a bunch of episodes to serve as math concept inspiration for the 31 music pieces I wrote and performed (on actual hardware synths) the whole month of January for #jamuary2026 #math #music #synths
Jamuary 2026
Listen to Jamuary 2026, a playlist curated by Francois Dion on desktop and mobile.
SoundCloud (soundcloud.com)
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@futurebird
just to clarify what she means is as if from random unbiased 6 sided die rolls.@futurebird
things I would check are first the frequency of each number... they should be somewhat uniform but not TOO close to equal as all exactly equal is unlikely... next I'd look at the length of repeat sequences and compare to expected values.the actual definition of random sequences (Per Martin-Löf) is in terms of passing tests actually
@Bumblefish -
Which one is random?
(data sets are 100 numbers 1 to 6)listA=[2,3,5,1,2,2,4,2,4,5,2,3,3,4,5,6,4,2,6,2,2,1,3,4,5,5,6,3,3,6,1,4,2,1,4,5,2,2,3,3,3,5,6,3,2,4,5,5,1,1,1,6,1,4,3,5,5,3,1,1,1,6,1,4,6,6,3,6,6,2,4,4,4,5,1,5,6,2,6,1,1,2,4,2,2,3,4,4,5,6,1,3,3,3,5,4,6,5,1,6]
listB=[4,2,5,6,3,5,3,1,3,4,2,3,4,3,4,5,5,1,3,3,2,1,1,6,1,3,2,2,2,6,1,5,6,3,6,3,2,3,2,4,6,1,1,6,3,2,4,1,6,1,3,1,5,6,2,3,3,5,1,6,4,5,2,5,1,1,5,3,6,2,3,3,6,5,2,3,3,1,6,3,2,3,2,1,6,6,4,4,6,2,4,5,4,5,3,4,6,5,3,2]
@futurebird @Bumblefish listA has 17 occurrences of 1-4 and 16 of 5-6, where listB has different frequencies for each. I would guess that listB is actually random, listA is too nice.
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The LLM is like a little box of computer horrors that we peer into from time to time.
I'm sorry but the whole interface is just so silly.
You ask for random numbers with sentences and it pretends to give them to you? What are we doooooing?
@futurebird now i'm morbidly curious about what output it gave
...and, relatedly, whether asking it for random words would net a very high frequency of ninjas, monkeys and sporks... -
Which one is random?
(data sets are 100 numbers 1 to 6)listA=[2,3,5,1,2,2,4,2,4,5,2,3,3,4,5,6,4,2,6,2,2,1,3,4,5,5,6,3,3,6,1,4,2,1,4,5,2,2,3,3,3,5,6,3,2,4,5,5,1,1,1,6,1,4,3,5,5,3,1,1,1,6,1,4,6,6,3,6,6,2,4,4,4,5,1,5,6,2,6,1,1,2,4,2,2,3,4,4,5,6,1,3,3,3,5,4,6,5,1,6]
listB=[4,2,5,6,3,5,3,1,3,4,2,3,4,3,4,5,5,1,3,3,2,1,1,6,1,3,2,2,2,6,1,5,6,3,6,3,2,3,2,4,6,1,1,6,3,2,4,1,6,1,3,1,5,6,2,3,3,5,1,6,4,5,2,5,1,1,5,3,6,2,3,3,6,5,2,3,3,1,6,3,2,3,2,1,6,6,4,4,6,2,4,5,4,5,3,4,6,5,3,2]
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@futurebird @Bumblefish no, scratch, that, list A has a *lot* of triples, like a disturbing number, and there are so many ascending patterns...
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The LLM is like a little box of computer horrors that we peer into from time to time.
I'm sorry but the whole interface is just so silly.
You ask for random numbers with sentences and it pretends to give them to you? What are we doooooing?
@futurebird
little box, little box of horrors -
@dpiponi Even with a raw model, I don't see how you would sample from the distribution of numbers in the corpus. Perhaps provide no context and sample one or more tokens (using an independent pseudo-random number generator) from the distribution, and if the returned token parses as a number, return it to the user, otherwise try again. Providing any context/prompt would bias what is returned. This seems too contrived/circular.
@futurebird@jedbrown @futurebird You described exactly what I would do. Obviously it would depend on an external PRNG and yes, no prompt. One natural way to use an LLM is to transform draws from a PRNG into draws from a distribution intended to represent some corpus. Picking numbers out of these draws would be expected to have a similar distribution to picking numbers from the original corpus. IIRC I may already have tested to see of the results conform to Benford's law - I did a lot of stuff like that when llama.cpp first became available. You have to select the right parameters to have llama.cpp use the distribution "correctly".
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This is the epistemological issue I have with the interface. It's ... well, not to be harsh but it's deceptive.
If you ask a "computer" for random numbers that has a kind of meaning, and expected process. If you ask a computer "how did you generate those random numbers?" that also has a set of expectations... and an LLM isn't meeting ANY of them.
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Which one is random?
(data sets are 100 numbers 1 to 6)listA=[2,3,5,1,2,2,4,2,4,5,2,3,3,4,5,6,4,2,6,2,2,1,3,4,5,5,6,3,3,6,1,4,2,1,4,5,2,2,3,3,3,5,6,3,2,4,5,5,1,1,1,6,1,4,3,5,5,3,1,1,1,6,1,4,6,6,3,6,6,2,4,4,4,5,1,5,6,2,6,1,1,2,4,2,2,3,4,4,5,6,1,3,3,3,5,4,6,5,1,6]
listB=[4,2,5,6,3,5,3,1,3,4,2,3,4,3,4,5,5,1,3,3,2,1,1,6,1,3,2,2,2,6,1,5,6,3,6,3,2,3,2,4,6,1,1,6,3,2,4,1,6,1,3,1,5,6,2,3,3,5,1,6,4,5,2,5,1,1,5,3,6,2,3,3,6,5,2,3,3,1,6,3,2,3,2,1,6,6,4,4,6,2,4,5,4,5,3,4,6,5,3,2]
The mean and standard deviations for both lists are about the same.
3.46 mean 1.7 stddev for listA
3.42 mean 1.69 stddev for listBHowever for listA, the count how often the values appear are all 17 or 16 so it appears to be a uniform distribution, while for list B 3 shows up 24 times, and 4 and 5 are less frequent at 12 and 14 times respectively.
My conclusion is listA was generated from a uniform random distribution and listB was not.
I can't tell if listB was made by some other more advanced random distribution, but honestly it looks like someone took a uniform distribution and turned some of the 4s and 5s into 3s.
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@futurebird
things I would check are first the frequency of each number... they should be somewhat uniform but not TOO close to equal as all exactly equal is unlikely... next I'd look at the length of repeat sequences and compare to expected values.the actual definition of random sequences (Per Martin-Löf) is in terms of passing tests actually
@BumblefishThe dictionaries in the Counter() object are the number of times each integer appears.
In [18]: Counter(listA)
Out[18]: Counter(
{2: 17, 3: 17, 5: 16, 1: 17, 4: 17, 6: 16}
)In [19]: Counter(listB)
Out[19]: Counter(
{4: 12, 2: 17, 5: 14, 6: 17, 3: 24, 1: 16}
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@futurebird
things I would check are first the frequency of each number... they should be somewhat uniform but not TOO close to equal as all exactly equal is unlikely... next I'd look at the length of repeat sequences and compare to expected values.the actual definition of random sequences (Per Martin-Löf) is in terms of passing tests actually
@Bumblefish@dlakelan @futurebird @Bumblefish Based on this description, A looks too uniform. B could be random.
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You *can* make an argument for one of these lists being random like a dice roll and the other being much less likely to be generated in that way.
@futurebird @Bumblefish Yes, you can determine probable likelihood. But given any list of items, it is impossible to prove or disprove whether a list is random or not.
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@futurebird @Bumblefish listA has 17 occurrences of 1-4 and 16 of 5-6, where listB has different frequencies for each. I would guess that listB is actually random, listA is too nice.
@madjohnroberts @futurebird @Bumblefish
If List A has nearly equal occurrences of each number then that’s the one most likely to have been produced by the equivalent of rolling a die 100 times.
