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  3. Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites!

Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites!

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  • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

    Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

    Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

    Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

    Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

    This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

    jappel@wandering.shopJ This user is from outside of this forum
    jappel@wandering.shopJ This user is from outside of this forum
    jappel@wandering.shop
    wrote last edited by
    #6

    @sundogplanets Offered in the spirit of encouragement: even the most cursory look at the financial goings-on in the AI space indicate that it's going to come crashing down, because the math simply doesn't work. And that collapse is almost certainly going to happen before anyone gets close to launching datacenters. If you get a chance Ed Zitron has a refreshingly frank assessment of the financial side of things.

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    • wraptile@fosstodon.orgW wraptile@fosstodon.org

      @sundogplanets and for what?

      I did some napkin math some time ago: all these satellites cost around 10-15B usd to deploy. This would be equivalent of 0.5 - 1 million cell towers at 10-20k usd (yeah that cheap).
      There are currently 7 million cell towers worldwide most of which are old and under-performing. With 1 million NEW cell towers with economies of scale we could have probably covered the same actual reach with better latency, access and affordability.

      Low orbit internet is a joke.

      sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
      sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
      sundogplanets@mastodon.social
      wrote last edited by
      #7

      @wraptile This is excellent napkin math that I hadn't even thought to work out, thanks!

      brokar@mastodon.socialB 1 Reply Last reply
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      • R relay@relay.publicsquare.global shared this topic
      • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

        Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

        Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

        Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

        Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

        This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

        phranck@oldbytes.spaceP This user is from outside of this forum
        phranck@oldbytes.spaceP This user is from outside of this forum
        phranck@oldbytes.space
        wrote last edited by
        #8

        @sundogplanets @qwertziop This is horrible.

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        • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

          Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

          Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

          Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

          Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

          This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

          ranx@mastodon.socialR This user is from outside of this forum
          ranx@mastodon.socialR This user is from outside of this forum
          ranx@mastodon.social
          wrote last edited by
          #9

          @sundogplanets since Kessler Syndrome seems inevitabile, the sooner the better? Positive effects: a) Starlink and probably all other companies, who's business is abusing LEO, go bankrupt; b) the FCC will have decades to think about how stupid they were; c) all those people subscribing to satellite internet because it's cool will learn what's the meaning of DO NOT FEED THE BEAST just for a little extra bandwidth. By the way, this morning I spotted the first Starlink antenna in town ;(

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          • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

            Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

            Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

            Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

            Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

            This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

            scaletheory@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
            scaletheory@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
            scaletheory@mastodon.social
            wrote last edited by
            #10

            @sundogplanets

            Kessler Syndrome

            "NASA space debris expert Don Kessler observed that, once past a certain critical mass, the total amount of space debris will keep on increasing."

            Sounds as if it's a chemical reaction creating matter not free will of idiots.

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            • jesterchen@social.tchncs.deJ jesterchen@social.tchncs.de

              @sundogplanets Well... one brightside of the eternal and eviscerating chaos that Kessler will put us into: if the AI data centers crash and burn due to Kessler, the hype will finally come to a screeching halt.

              crazyeddie@mastodon.socialC This user is from outside of this forum
              crazyeddie@mastodon.socialC This user is from outside of this forum
              crazyeddie@mastodon.social
              wrote last edited by
              #11

              @jesterchen @sundogplanets "the hype will finally come to a screeching halt"

              HAH!!!

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              • mdc@mstdn.caM mdc@mstdn.ca

                @sundogplanets

                I've been seeing more posts trying to downplay Kessler Syndrome lately. Hard to tell how much of that is coming from SpaceX/Musk fans or corporate PR bots

                crazyeddie@mastodon.socialC This user is from outside of this forum
                crazyeddie@mastodon.socialC This user is from outside of this forum
                crazyeddie@mastodon.social
                wrote last edited by
                #12

                @mdc @sundogplanets same same

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                • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                  Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                  Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                  Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                  Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                  This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                  wiesodennblos@hessen.socialW This user is from outside of this forum
                  wiesodennblos@hessen.socialW This user is from outside of this forum
                  wiesodennblos@hessen.social
                  wrote last edited by
                  #13

                  @sundogplanets the "data centers in orbit" is the part that is not happening. Maybe the idea was advertised to justify spaceX investment in xAI and keep the circular money flows busy.

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                  • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                    @wraptile This is excellent napkin math that I hadn't even thought to work out, thanks!

                    brokar@mastodon.socialB This user is from outside of this forum
                    brokar@mastodon.socialB This user is from outside of this forum
                    brokar@mastodon.social
                    wrote last edited by
                    #14

                    @sundogplanets @wraptile

                    Well, you can also spy with the satellites. Can't do that with a cell tower (not that effective) and destroying one satellite does nothing to the system.

                    I really wish China would launch their own 10.000 satellites and program them on a collision course with the Starlink ones, forcing all of them to enter the atmosphere and burn out.

                    I would personally thank Xi for making astronomy possible again 😉

                    wraptile@fosstodon.orgW maccruiskeen@social.linux.pizzaM smiddi@chaos.socialS S cosmiccactus@mastodon.socialC 5 Replies Last reply
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                    • brokar@mastodon.socialB brokar@mastodon.social

                      @sundogplanets @wraptile

                      Well, you can also spy with the satellites. Can't do that with a cell tower (not that effective) and destroying one satellite does nothing to the system.

                      I really wish China would launch their own 10.000 satellites and program them on a collision course with the Starlink ones, forcing all of them to enter the atmosphere and burn out.

                      I would personally thank Xi for making astronomy possible again 😉

                      wraptile@fosstodon.orgW This user is from outside of this forum
                      wraptile@fosstodon.orgW This user is from outside of this forum
                      wraptile@fosstodon.org
                      wrote last edited by
                      #15

                      @Brokar @sundogplanets yup it's a war machine disguised as a commercial product because the commerce math just doesn't math.

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                      0
                      • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                        Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                        Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                        Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                        Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                        This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                        kierkegaanks@beige.partyK This user is from outside of this forum
                        kierkegaanks@beige.partyK This user is from outside of this forum
                        kierkegaanks@beige.party
                        wrote last edited by
                        #16

                        @sundogplanets in my defense i didn’t think anybody was radically stupid enough to actually put a million datacenters in orbit and that elmo was scamming shareholders as per usual

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                        • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                          Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                          Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                          Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                          Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                          This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                          jackemled@furry.engineerJ This user is from outside of this forum
                          jackemled@furry.engineerJ This user is from outside of this forum
                          jackemled@furry.engineer
                          wrote last edited by
                          #17

                          @sundogplanets The satellites seem to be dark at some parts of their trails. Are they spinning‽ So their antennas just aren't aimed at Earth half of the time‽ I thought they couldn't be any stupider.

                          guigsy@mstdn.socialG 1 Reply Last reply
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                          • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                            Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                            Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                            Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                            Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                            This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                            screwturn@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                            screwturn@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                            screwturn@mastodon.social
                            wrote last edited by
                            #18

                            @sundogplanets
                            If it weren't for the various categories of pollution and risk here, I would be 100% behind Sam and others blowing investor's fortunes on silly parlor games.

                            Like sure, go put a data center in orbit where a service call to replace a pump will cost a million bucks, and sure, expose your computers to radiation, and please, by all means find out the hard way that space is cold, but has very low specific heat capacity. Be my guest, play stupid games.

                            But sadly, the pollution costs

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                            • mttaggart@infosec.exchangeM mttaggart@infosec.exchange shared this topic
                            • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                              Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                              Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                              Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                              Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                              This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                              benhm3@saint-paul.usB This user is from outside of this forum
                              benhm3@saint-paul.usB This user is from outside of this forum
                              benhm3@saint-paul.us
                              wrote last edited by
                              #19

                              @sundogplanets

                              When Prof. Lawler swears, we are in trouble.
                              #ListenToExperts

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              0
                              • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                                Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                                Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                                Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                                Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                                This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                                castanea_jo@ni.hil.istC This user is from outside of this forum
                                castanea_jo@ni.hil.istC This user is from outside of this forum
                                castanea_jo@ni.hil.ist
                                wrote last edited by
                                #20

                                RE: https://mastodon.social/@sundogplanets/116477011532548038

                                Cowboy Bebop was a dystopia and we don't have nearly their technological acumen (it was magic). I think often the people planning, enabling, building, launching these satellites have bad brain syndrome

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                                • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                                  Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                                  Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                                  Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                                  Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                                  This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                                  terribletowelie@mastodon.socialT This user is from outside of this forum
                                  terribletowelie@mastodon.socialT This user is from outside of this forum
                                  terribletowelie@mastodon.social
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #21

                                  @sundogplanets

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                                  • jesterchen@social.tchncs.deJ jesterchen@social.tchncs.de

                                    @sundogplanets Well... one brightside of the eternal and eviscerating chaos that Kessler will put us into: if the AI data centers crash and burn due to Kessler, the hype will finally come to a screeching halt.

                                    endlessmason@hachyderm.ioE This user is from outside of this forum
                                    endlessmason@hachyderm.ioE This user is from outside of this forum
                                    endlessmason@hachyderm.io
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #22

                                    @jesterchen @sundogplanets
                                    Literally the main problem is the "bright side"

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                                    • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                                      Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                                      Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                                      Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                                      Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                                      This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                                      gimulnautti@mastodon.greenG This user is from outside of this forum
                                      gimulnautti@mastodon.greenG This user is from outside of this forum
                                      gimulnautti@mastodon.green
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #23

                                      @sundogplanets Don’t worry, he won’t make you pay for it with government subsidies!

                                      1 Reply Last reply
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                                      • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                                        Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                                        Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                                        Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                                        Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                                        This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                                        rycochet@furs.socialR This user is from outside of this forum
                                        rycochet@furs.socialR This user is from outside of this forum
                                        rycochet@furs.social
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #24

                                        @sundogplanets When the first Starlink says went up, Elon stans swore he would use his wealth to fund space telescopes so ground based astronomy wouldn't even be necessary, astronomers would have free access to science funded by his philanthropic largesse... Instead massive cuts to science, attacks on all regulation, higher education, spotty kids using chat GPT to decide what science is and isn't 'woke' and NASA destined to become a SpaceX subsidiary.

                                        I cannot wait to see all the 'dooming' over atmospheric aluminium and the ozone layer coming true just to add another layer of awful to things. Unlike CFCs, he'll probably block any action being taken and promise ozone replenishment drones at some unspecified point in the future, to be released alongside darker satellites and Full Self Driving.

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                                        • brokar@mastodon.socialB brokar@mastodon.social

                                          @sundogplanets @wraptile

                                          Well, you can also spy with the satellites. Can't do that with a cell tower (not that effective) and destroying one satellite does nothing to the system.

                                          I really wish China would launch their own 10.000 satellites and program them on a collision course with the Starlink ones, forcing all of them to enter the atmosphere and burn out.

                                          I would personally thank Xi for making astronomy possible again 😉

                                          maccruiskeen@social.linux.pizzaM This user is from outside of this forum
                                          maccruiskeen@social.linux.pizzaM This user is from outside of this forum
                                          maccruiskeen@social.linux.pizza
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #25

                                          @Brokar @sundogplanets @wraptile If they were just going to do kinetic kill vehicles, they wouldn't need nearly that many to really screw things up. The problem of course is that whoever did it would be screwing up their own assets at the same time.

                                          wraptile@fosstodon.orgW brokar@mastodon.socialB 2 Replies Last reply
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