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  3. Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites!

Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites!

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  • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

    Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

    Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

    Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

    Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

    This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

    kusuriya@masto.hackers.townK This user is from outside of this forum
    kusuriya@masto.hackers.townK This user is from outside of this forum
    kusuriya@masto.hackers.town
    wrote last edited by
    #4

    @sundogplanets BUT ELNO PROMISED... sorry I had a hard time typing that without laughing.

    w_b@mastodon.worldW 1 Reply Last reply
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    • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

      Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

      Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

      Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

      Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

      This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

      wraptile@fosstodon.orgW This user is from outside of this forum
      wraptile@fosstodon.orgW This user is from outside of this forum
      wraptile@fosstodon.org
      wrote last edited by
      #5

      @sundogplanets and for what?

      I did some napkin math some time ago: all these satellites cost around 10-15B usd to deploy. This would be equivalent of 0.5 - 1 million cell towers at 10-20k usd (yeah that cheap).
      There are currently 7 million cell towers worldwide most of which are old and under-performing. With 1 million NEW cell towers with economies of scale we could have probably covered the same actual reach with better latency, access and affordability.

      Low orbit internet is a joke.

      sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS stuartyeates@cloudisland.nzS toroidalcore@masto.hackers.townT 3 Replies Last reply
      0
      • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

        Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

        Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

        Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

        Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

        This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

        jappel@wandering.shopJ This user is from outside of this forum
        jappel@wandering.shopJ This user is from outside of this forum
        jappel@wandering.shop
        wrote last edited by
        #6

        @sundogplanets Offered in the spirit of encouragement: even the most cursory look at the financial goings-on in the AI space indicate that it's going to come crashing down, because the math simply doesn't work. And that collapse is almost certainly going to happen before anyone gets close to launching datacenters. If you get a chance Ed Zitron has a refreshingly frank assessment of the financial side of things.

        1 Reply Last reply
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        • wraptile@fosstodon.orgW wraptile@fosstodon.org

          @sundogplanets and for what?

          I did some napkin math some time ago: all these satellites cost around 10-15B usd to deploy. This would be equivalent of 0.5 - 1 million cell towers at 10-20k usd (yeah that cheap).
          There are currently 7 million cell towers worldwide most of which are old and under-performing. With 1 million NEW cell towers with economies of scale we could have probably covered the same actual reach with better latency, access and affordability.

          Low orbit internet is a joke.

          sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
          sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
          sundogplanets@mastodon.social
          wrote last edited by
          #7

          @wraptile This is excellent napkin math that I hadn't even thought to work out, thanks!

          brokar@mastodon.socialB 1 Reply Last reply
          0
          • R relay@relay.publicsquare.global shared this topic
          • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

            Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

            Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

            Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

            Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

            This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

            phranck@oldbytes.spaceP This user is from outside of this forum
            phranck@oldbytes.spaceP This user is from outside of this forum
            phranck@oldbytes.space
            wrote last edited by
            #8

            @sundogplanets @qwertziop This is horrible.

            1 Reply Last reply
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            • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

              Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

              Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

              Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

              Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

              This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

              ranx@mastodon.socialR This user is from outside of this forum
              ranx@mastodon.socialR This user is from outside of this forum
              ranx@mastodon.social
              wrote last edited by
              #9

              @sundogplanets since Kessler Syndrome seems inevitabile, the sooner the better? Positive effects: a) Starlink and probably all other companies, who's business is abusing LEO, go bankrupt; b) the FCC will have decades to think about how stupid they were; c) all those people subscribing to satellite internet because it's cool will learn what's the meaning of DO NOT FEED THE BEAST just for a little extra bandwidth. By the way, this morning I spotted the first Starlink antenna in town ;(

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              • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                scaletheory@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                scaletheory@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                scaletheory@mastodon.social
                wrote last edited by
                #10

                @sundogplanets

                Kessler Syndrome

                "NASA space debris expert Don Kessler observed that, once past a certain critical mass, the total amount of space debris will keep on increasing."

                Sounds as if it's a chemical reaction creating matter not free will of idiots.

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                • jesterchen@social.tchncs.deJ jesterchen@social.tchncs.de

                  @sundogplanets Well... one brightside of the eternal and eviscerating chaos that Kessler will put us into: if the AI data centers crash and burn due to Kessler, the hype will finally come to a screeching halt.

                  crazyeddie@mastodon.socialC This user is from outside of this forum
                  crazyeddie@mastodon.socialC This user is from outside of this forum
                  crazyeddie@mastodon.social
                  wrote last edited by
                  #11

                  @jesterchen @sundogplanets "the hype will finally come to a screeching halt"

                  HAH!!!

                  1 Reply Last reply
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                  • mdc@mstdn.caM mdc@mstdn.ca

                    @sundogplanets

                    I've been seeing more posts trying to downplay Kessler Syndrome lately. Hard to tell how much of that is coming from SpaceX/Musk fans or corporate PR bots

                    crazyeddie@mastodon.socialC This user is from outside of this forum
                    crazyeddie@mastodon.socialC This user is from outside of this forum
                    crazyeddie@mastodon.social
                    wrote last edited by
                    #12

                    @mdc @sundogplanets same same

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                    • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                      Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                      Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                      Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                      Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                      This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                      wiesodennblos@hessen.socialW This user is from outside of this forum
                      wiesodennblos@hessen.socialW This user is from outside of this forum
                      wiesodennblos@hessen.social
                      wrote last edited by
                      #13

                      @sundogplanets the "data centers in orbit" is the part that is not happening. Maybe the idea was advertised to justify spaceX investment in xAI and keep the circular money flows busy.

                      1 Reply Last reply
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                      • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                        @wraptile This is excellent napkin math that I hadn't even thought to work out, thanks!

                        brokar@mastodon.socialB This user is from outside of this forum
                        brokar@mastodon.socialB This user is from outside of this forum
                        brokar@mastodon.social
                        wrote last edited by
                        #14

                        @sundogplanets @wraptile

                        Well, you can also spy with the satellites. Can't do that with a cell tower (not that effective) and destroying one satellite does nothing to the system.

                        I really wish China would launch their own 10.000 satellites and program them on a collision course with the Starlink ones, forcing all of them to enter the atmosphere and burn out.

                        I would personally thank Xi for making astronomy possible again 😉

                        wraptile@fosstodon.orgW maccruiskeen@social.linux.pizzaM smiddi@chaos.socialS S cosmiccactus@mastodon.socialC 5 Replies Last reply
                        0
                        • brokar@mastodon.socialB brokar@mastodon.social

                          @sundogplanets @wraptile

                          Well, you can also spy with the satellites. Can't do that with a cell tower (not that effective) and destroying one satellite does nothing to the system.

                          I really wish China would launch their own 10.000 satellites and program them on a collision course with the Starlink ones, forcing all of them to enter the atmosphere and burn out.

                          I would personally thank Xi for making astronomy possible again 😉

                          wraptile@fosstodon.orgW This user is from outside of this forum
                          wraptile@fosstodon.orgW This user is from outside of this forum
                          wraptile@fosstodon.org
                          wrote last edited by
                          #15

                          @Brokar @sundogplanets yup it's a war machine disguised as a commercial product because the commerce math just doesn't math.

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                          • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                            Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                            Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                            Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                            Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                            This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                            kierkegaanks@beige.partyK This user is from outside of this forum
                            kierkegaanks@beige.partyK This user is from outside of this forum
                            kierkegaanks@beige.party
                            wrote last edited by
                            #16

                            @sundogplanets in my defense i didn’t think anybody was radically stupid enough to actually put a million datacenters in orbit and that elmo was scamming shareholders as per usual

                            1 Reply Last reply
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                            • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                              Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                              Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                              Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                              Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                              This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                              jackemled@furry.engineerJ This user is from outside of this forum
                              jackemled@furry.engineerJ This user is from outside of this forum
                              jackemled@furry.engineer
                              wrote last edited by
                              #17

                              @sundogplanets The satellites seem to be dark at some parts of their trails. Are they spinning‽ So their antennas just aren't aimed at Earth half of the time‽ I thought they couldn't be any stupider.

                              guigsy@mstdn.socialG 1 Reply Last reply
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                              • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                                Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                                Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                                Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                                Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                                This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                                screwturn@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                                screwturn@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                                screwturn@mastodon.social
                                wrote last edited by
                                #18

                                @sundogplanets
                                If it weren't for the various categories of pollution and risk here, I would be 100% behind Sam and others blowing investor's fortunes on silly parlor games.

                                Like sure, go put a data center in orbit where a service call to replace a pump will cost a million bucks, and sure, expose your computers to radiation, and please, by all means find out the hard way that space is cold, but has very low specific heat capacity. Be my guest, play stupid games.

                                But sadly, the pollution costs

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                                • mttaggart@infosec.exchangeM mttaggart@infosec.exchange shared this topic
                                • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                                  Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                                  Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                                  Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                                  Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                                  This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                                  benhm3@saint-paul.usB This user is from outside of this forum
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                                  benhm3@saint-paul.us
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #19

                                  @sundogplanets

                                  When Prof. Lawler swears, we are in trouble.
                                  #ListenToExperts

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                                  • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                                    Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                                    Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                                    Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                                    Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                                    This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                                    castanea_jo@ni.hil.istC This user is from outside of this forum
                                    castanea_jo@ni.hil.istC This user is from outside of this forum
                                    castanea_jo@ni.hil.ist
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #20

                                    RE: https://mastodon.social/@sundogplanets/116477011532548038

                                    Cowboy Bebop was a dystopia and we don't have nearly their technological acumen (it was magic). I think often the people planning, enabling, building, launching these satellites have bad brain syndrome

                                    1 Reply Last reply
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                                    • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                                      Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                                      Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                                      Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                                      Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                                      This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                                      terribletowelie@mastodon.socialT This user is from outside of this forum
                                      terribletowelie@mastodon.socialT This user is from outside of this forum
                                      terribletowelie@mastodon.social
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #21

                                      @sundogplanets

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                                      • jesterchen@social.tchncs.deJ jesterchen@social.tchncs.de

                                        @sundogplanets Well... one brightside of the eternal and eviscerating chaos that Kessler will put us into: if the AI data centers crash and burn due to Kessler, the hype will finally come to a screeching halt.

                                        endlessmason@hachyderm.ioE This user is from outside of this forum
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                                        endlessmason@hachyderm.io
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #22

                                        @jesterchen @sundogplanets
                                        Literally the main problem is the "bright side"

                                        1 Reply Last reply
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                                        • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                                          Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                                          Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                                          Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                                          Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                                          This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                                          gimulnautti@mastodon.greenG This user is from outside of this forum
                                          gimulnautti@mastodon.greenG This user is from outside of this forum
                                          gimulnautti@mastodon.green
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #23

                                          @sundogplanets Don’t worry, he won’t make you pay for it with government subsidies!

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