Trying to edit a stupid FCC comment on Yet Another Fucking Stupid Orbital Data Center (fuck you, Blue Origin) and I need to go outside and rage-scream for a while.
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"Blue Origin will take all feasible steps to reduce the probability of collision by at least 1.5 orders of magnitude for any collision risk above a threshold which will be no higher than 1E-5" I'm an orbital debris expert and I'm not sure I can parse this sentence. But I'm sure it'll be fine!!
They say they'll get the collision prob down to 1 in 1000 for any periods of non-maneuverability. With 51,000 sats and a million more from SpaceX, these are great odds! (...of a collision)
No mention of atmospheric pollution, of course, because the FCC doesn't give a shit about that. With SpaceX's 5 Starlinks a day a few months ago, we were well above natural infall rates of most metals, so 1 (presumably) gigantic satellite per hour will be a lot worse than that.
My colleagues and I wrote a bit about using the atmosphere as a satellite crematorium here, and it's bad: https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366
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"Blue Origin will take all feasible steps to reduce the probability of collision by at least 1.5 orders of magnitude for any collision risk above a threshold which will be no higher than 1E-5" I'm an orbital debris expert and I'm not sure I can parse this sentence. But I'm sure it'll be fine!!
They say they'll get the collision prob down to 1 in 1000 for any periods of non-maneuverability. With 51,000 sats and a million more from SpaceX, these are great odds! (...of a collision)
@sundogplanets I don't study orbital risk, but I do study cybersecurity risk, and a probability without a timeframe is a sure sign of sloppy thinking.
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"Blue Origin will take all feasible steps to reduce the probability of collision by at least 1.5 orders of magnitude for any collision risk above a threshold which will be no higher than 1E-5" I'm an orbital debris expert and I'm not sure I can parse this sentence. But I'm sure it'll be fine!!
They say they'll get the collision prob down to 1 in 1000 for any periods of non-maneuverability. With 51,000 sats and a million more from SpaceX, these are great odds! (...of a collision)
@sundogplanets What's more, is the 1e-5 the starting point, after which probability will be reduced by "at least 1.5 orders of magnitude" or the result of that reduction?
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@sundogplanets What's more, is the 1e-5 the starting point, after which probability will be reduced by "at least 1.5 orders of magnitude" or the result of that reduction?
@sundogplanets As I'm sure we both tell our students, if you can't explain it clearly, that's probably evidence that you're not thinking about it clearly.
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ORBITAL DEBRIS MITIGATION this part will be the most "fun"
But a reminder that they asked for a waiver for their debris plan, so I guess that this is just... for funsies?
Here's the first and only information I've seen about the satellite sizes. They will be bigger than 10cm, so they will be easily tracked! No shit!! A fucking data center needs to be bigger than 10cm! What useful information!!
@sundogplanets they will *start* larger than 10cm!
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To nobody's surprise, they will burn all their satellites up in the atmosphere, because that's what all the cool kids do. They don't actually say their operating lifetimes anywhere. But if they're 5 years like Starlink, then that's a bit more than one satellite burned up per hour.
And will they burn up completely? Well, they say they'll use the same NASA debris model to assess that said that the SpaceX Crew Dragon trunk would burn up. So I'm not worried at all!!
@sundogplanets There is real nuance here. Systems like SpaceX’s Starlink are designed to mostly burn up on re-entry, but models are probabilistic—not guarantees.
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No mention of atmospheric pollution, of course, because the FCC doesn't give a shit about that. With SpaceX's 5 Starlinks a day a few months ago, we were well above natural infall rates of most metals, so 1 (presumably) gigantic satellite per hour will be a lot worse than that.
My colleagues and I wrote a bit about using the atmosphere as a satellite crematorium here, and it's bad: https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366
Oh hey, there's an ASTRONOMY MITIGATIONS section!! All of the collective astronomy yelling and screaming is working!!!
...oh wait it's all total bullshit, because they don't actually have anything close to a satellite design or even a size. Three whole sentences at the very end of the document!! They care so much about saving the night sky and all of astronomy research!
And with that, I desperately need to go take a walk in the woods.
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@sundogplanets As I'm sure we both tell our students, if you can't explain it clearly, that's probably evidence that you're not thinking about it clearly.
@adamshostack @sundogplanets Sadly in this case I suspect it's more "if you're not explaining it clearly it's because explaining it clearly looks *really* bad", since these are folks who absolutely know their stuff (at least legally and organizationally) and any weird lack of clarity is most likely intentional.
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ORBITAL DEBRIS MITIGATION this part will be the most "fun"
But a reminder that they asked for a waiver for their debris plan, so I guess that this is just... for funsies?
Here's the first and only information I've seen about the satellite sizes. They will be bigger than 10cm, so they will be easily tracked! No shit!! A fucking data center needs to be bigger than 10cm! What useful information!!
From: Preda Tori Lurkin, Editor
HHSFS, LLC
Humor Horror SciFi Scrapers LLC
'We Publish The Best of the Worst'Dear Dr. Lawler:
Our literary crawlers have made me aware that your current posts on the subject of
FRIGHTENING SPACE QUACKERYseem to be a good fit for our Doomsday Bookshelf series of scientistic fiction books. I would love to read a book proposal from you, and our AI will merge and publish your posts as a fine contribution to the horror humor genre.
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@sundogplanets my "please don't ask me about my debris mitigation plan" shirt is raising a lot of questions i had hoped would be avoided by wearing the shirt
@trenchworms Is that actually a shirt?! I need that shirt!!
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@sundogplanets BTW do the documents address the cooling problem?
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@sundogplanets I don't study orbital risk, but I do study cybersecurity risk, and a probability without a timeframe is a sure sign of sloppy thinking.
@adamshostack @sundogplanets Yeah, I stumbled there too. "0.00001" what? Eggnogs? Square rabbits per furlong? Is it common in orbital mechanics to give no frame of reference? I would have expected something like "per satellite per hour" or somesuch.
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To nobody's surprise, they will burn all their satellites up in the atmosphere, because that's what all the cool kids do. They don't actually say their operating lifetimes anywhere. But if they're 5 years like Starlink, then that's a bit more than one satellite burned up per hour.
And will they burn up completely? Well, they say they'll use the same NASA debris model to assess that said that the SpaceX Crew Dragon trunk would burn up. So I'm not worried at all!!
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To nobody's surprise, they will burn all their satellites up in the atmosphere, because that's what all the cool kids do. They don't actually say their operating lifetimes anywhere. But if they're 5 years like Starlink, then that's a bit more than one satellite burned up per hour.
And will they burn up completely? Well, they say they'll use the same NASA debris model to assess that said that the SpaceX Crew Dragon trunk would burn up. So I'm not worried at all!!
@sundogplanets I am disturbed by how the reentry of those satellite pieces have made them so furry.
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"Blue Origin will take all feasible steps to reduce the probability of collision by at least 1.5 orders of magnitude for any collision risk above a threshold which will be no higher than 1E-5" I'm an orbital debris expert and I'm not sure I can parse this sentence. But I'm sure it'll be fine!!
They say they'll get the collision prob down to 1 in 1000 for any periods of non-maneuverability. With 51,000 sats and a million more from SpaceX, these are great odds! (...of a collision)
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@sundogplanets I am disturbed by how the reentry of those satellite pieces have made them so furry.
Fiber enforced materials?
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Fiber enforced materials?
@m_berberich I certainly hope so.
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@sundogplanets As I'm sure we both tell our students, if you can't explain it clearly, that's probably evidence that you're not thinking about it clearly.
i specifically did technical talks and tutorials about things i wanted to be sure i well understood for exactly that reason. also, nothing like a public talk/tutorial to motivate you to refresh your knowledge on a subject.
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Oh hey, there's an ASTRONOMY MITIGATIONS section!! All of the collective astronomy yelling and screaming is working!!!
...oh wait it's all total bullshit, because they don't actually have anything close to a satellite design or even a size. Three whole sentences at the very end of the document!! They care so much about saving the night sky and all of astronomy research!
And with that, I desperately need to go take a walk in the woods.
@sundogplanets I work in collision avoidance and space debris and cataloguing and this shit is just getting worse and worse... I can't believe how much they want to launch. It's just not feasible!! Fucking millionaires...
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Oh hey, there's an ASTRONOMY MITIGATIONS section!! All of the collective astronomy yelling and screaming is working!!!
...oh wait it's all total bullshit, because they don't actually have anything close to a satellite design or even a size. Three whole sentences at the very end of the document!! They care so much about saving the night sky and all of astronomy research!
And with that, I desperately need to go take a walk in the woods.
Better. (But I'm still angry.)
