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  3. Have Wikipedia and Mozilla passed a point of inevitable decline?

Have Wikipedia and Mozilla passed a point of inevitable decline?

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evanpollpollwikipediamozilla
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  • evan@cosocial.caE evan@cosocial.ca

    Have Wikipedia and Mozilla passed a point of inevitable decline?

    #EvanPoll #poll #wikipedia #mozilla

    jonnyt@mastodon.me.ukJ This user is from outside of this forum
    jonnyt@mastodon.me.ukJ This user is from outside of this forum
    jonnyt@mastodon.me.uk
    wrote last edited by
    #68

    @evan Mozilla definitely imo. They don't have a large enough user base to recover and they're burning their bridges with the type of people who'd sustain them enough to survive. They're no Apple who found themselves in a similar position. (1/3)

    jonnyt@mastodon.me.ukJ 1 Reply Last reply
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    • jonnyt@mastodon.me.ukJ jonnyt@mastodon.me.uk

      @evan Mozilla definitely imo. They don't have a large enough user base to recover and they're burning their bridges with the type of people who'd sustain them enough to survive. They're no Apple who found themselves in a similar position. (1/3)

      jonnyt@mastodon.me.ukJ This user is from outside of this forum
      jonnyt@mastodon.me.ukJ This user is from outside of this forum
      jonnyt@mastodon.me.uk
      wrote last edited by
      #69

      Wikipedia not inevitable. (I've read your replies). Maybe it'll become inevitable within the next decade but they aren't there yet. And what will LLMs be without being able to perpetually scrape Wikipedia? I don't think you are going to get many people voluntarily correcting LLMs unpaid (and this will become necessary eventually, especially if Wikipedia goes). (2/3)
      @evan

      jonnyt@mastodon.me.ukJ 1 Reply Last reply
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      • jonnyt@mastodon.me.ukJ jonnyt@mastodon.me.uk

        Wikipedia not inevitable. (I've read your replies). Maybe it'll become inevitable within the next decade but they aren't there yet. And what will LLMs be without being able to perpetually scrape Wikipedia? I don't think you are going to get many people voluntarily correcting LLMs unpaid (and this will become necessary eventually, especially if Wikipedia goes). (2/3)
        @evan

        jonnyt@mastodon.me.ukJ This user is from outside of this forum
        jonnyt@mastodon.me.ukJ This user is from outside of this forum
        jonnyt@mastodon.me.uk
        wrote last edited by
        #70

        They're rightly seen by the people who might be willing to do that as ruthless, capitalist US businesses whose sole objective is to make money and shit on people and the rest of the world, not as noble charitable organisations with a global ethos worth helping and preserving. (3/3)
        @evan

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        • aeva@mastodon.gamedev.placeA aeva@mastodon.gamedev.place

          @evan the thing that bums me out about firefox is it shouldn't matter if mozilla lives or dies. it's open source! but it got built up so big and the stakes are so high it might not be enough just to have a community of people who give a shit to try to maintain it. i think they crossed the point of no return on accident a long time ago and google has just been keeping them on life support as an anti-anti-trust talisman since then

          evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
          evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
          evan@cosocial.ca
          wrote last edited by
          #71

          @aeva I think you have an adorably romantic mental model of how big Open Source works.

          aeva@mastodon.gamedev.placeA 1 Reply Last reply
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          • evan@cosocial.caE evan@cosocial.ca

            @aeva I think you have an adorably romantic mental model of how big Open Source works.

            aeva@mastodon.gamedev.placeA This user is from outside of this forum
            aeva@mastodon.gamedev.placeA This user is from outside of this forum
            aeva@mastodon.gamedev.place
            wrote last edited by
            #72

            @evan i blame christine lol

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            • evan@cosocial.caE evan@cosocial.ca

              Anyway, I'm going to choose to stay hopeful. I think most of the options for these two big organizations are revolutionary and not evolutionary. But I believe they still exist. I'm going to say Neither, but ask me again next year.

              atomicpoet@atomicpoet.orgA This user is from outside of this forum
              atomicpoet@atomicpoet.orgA This user is from outside of this forum
              atomicpoet@atomicpoet.org
              wrote last edited by
              #73
              @evan For what its worth, I used to think CBC was a hopeless organization in the face of Netflix and YouTube. But it turns out that it's now one of the few news sources I trust, and they've done more for Canadian sports than Rogers.

              Sometimes it takes a catalyst for people to realize why an institution is important.
              evan@cosocial.caE 1 Reply Last reply
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              • evan@cosocial.caE evan@cosocial.ca

                It'd be nice to play games where you can have a little barley field and a little wood lot and a little university and you just chill and eat mushroom barley soup and write poetry by your wood fire. But usually in these games, if you don't grow, others will. The world changes around you. And they will overlook you for a while if you keep a low profile, but eventually they'll come take what little you have.

                funcrunch@me.dmF This user is from outside of this forum
                funcrunch@me.dmF This user is from outside of this forum
                funcrunch@me.dm
                wrote last edited by
                #74

                @evan

                Sounds like Animal Crossing, Stardew Valley, or any number of other "cozy" games that don't focus on combat. (Which doesn't really help your analogy, admittedly)

                evan@cosocial.caE 1 Reply Last reply
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                • evan@cosocial.caE evan@cosocial.ca

                  Anyway, I'm going to choose to stay hopeful. I think most of the options for these two big organizations are revolutionary and not evolutionary. But I believe they still exist. I'm going to say Neither, but ask me again next year.

                  evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                  evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                  evan@cosocial.ca
                  wrote last edited by
                  #75

                  I say all this with deep love and respect. I have lived and will die a believer in wikis. I believe in open source and the open web. I love my friends and colleagues at both organisations and I hope they keep their jobs and thrive. I want them to succeed.

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                  • evan@cosocial.caE evan@cosocial.ca

                    What could Mozilla do? Build cloud services attached to your Firefox account -- like Google and Apple have. Use their reputation for openness and privacy to attract a generation of users who are despondent over Big Tech.

                    What could Wikimedia do? Use public pressure and shame to rewrite those re-use deals. And also disintermediate -- get directly connected to users, with chatbots, search, and voice assistants of their own.

                    Or maybe even wilder things. I don't know everything; I'm just some guy.

                    openrisk@mastodon.socialO This user is from outside of this forum
                    openrisk@mastodon.socialO This user is from outside of this forum
                    openrisk@mastodon.social
                    wrote last edited by
                    #76

                    @evan Just some other guy, but it seems game over to me. The land lies in waste. The orcs rule every square of the board and are erecting blood sucking factories, sorry meant "data centers", in each and every one.

                    There might be some sort of restart, with new rules🙏. But it will need outside help. Deus ex machina. Maybe some enlightened democratic government deciding this *is* existential. Maybe a trillionaire in their death bed wishing to pass through the head of a needle.

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                    • evan@cosocial.caE evan@cosocial.ca

                      My friend @luis_in_brief has written a couple of good articles about Wikipedia's collapsing web traffic:

                      Link Preview Image
                      Wikipedia's traffic drop: more on languages and freshness

                      Following up on last week's post, I looked at 5,000 "Vital Articles" across eight major-language Wikipedias. Articles about math, physical sciences and tech are waaaay down, while people, geography, and history hold up far better—regardless of which language they're in. Article freshness matters too—but not as much.

                      favicon

                      lu.is (lu.is)

                      Link Preview Image
                      Career articles on Wikipedia: some scary numbers

                      I took a look at English Wikipedia pageviews for ~4,000 articles about careers. The numbers are grim: the median is down 28% from pre-COVID, with a huge drop in the last year.

                      favicon

                      lu.is (lu.is)

                      I especially appreciate this article about how Wikipedia's "flat" traffic growth over the last decade masks a precipitous decline in relative Web traffic:

                      Link Preview Image
                      User:Schiste/what-now - Meta-Wiki

                      favicon

                      (meta.wikimedia.org)

                      My former colleague Marshall Miller at WMF wrote about a vertiginous 8% quarterly drop in Wikipedia page views at the end of 2025:

                      Link Preview Image
                      New User Trends on Wikipedia

                      An update on user trends from the Wikimedia Foundation.

                      favicon

                      Diff (diff.wikimedia.org)

                      ayo@social.ayco.ioA This user is from outside of this forum
                      ayo@social.ayco.ioA This user is from outside of this forum
                      ayo@social.ayco.io
                      wrote last edited by
                      #77

                      @evan @luis_in_brief Thank you for sharing! 🙏

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                      • pizaaman@c.imP pizaaman@c.im

                        @evan Is Wikipedia considered in decline?

                        evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                        evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                        evan@cosocial.ca
                        wrote last edited by
                        #78

                        @pizaaman my long response is here.

                        Evan Prodromou (@evan@cosocial.ca)

                        I like playing video games and board games with an economic component. In these games, you build farms or factories or mines or whatever, and they generate resources that you can use to build armies or research centres or monuments, which in turn let you build more farms and mines and so on.

                        favicon

                        CoSocial (cosocial.ca)

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                        • rhelune@todon.euR rhelune@todon.eu

                          @evan @pizaaman Just say why. I know they banned slop.

                          evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                          evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                          evan@cosocial.ca
                          wrote last edited by
                          #79

                          @rhelune @pizaaman my long response is here.

                          Evan Prodromou (@evan@cosocial.ca)

                          I like playing video games and board games with an economic component. In these games, you build farms or factories or mines or whatever, and they generate resources that you can use to build armies or research centres or monuments, which in turn let you build more farms and mines and so on.

                          favicon

                          CoSocial (cosocial.ca)

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                          • evan@cosocial.caE evan@cosocial.ca

                            @philip I don't think it's a good idea for me to convince you either way. Use a search engine if you're curious. If you find evidence that makes you think one way or another, use that to inform your answer. If that's more work than you think a poll is worth, feel free to skip the question.

                            evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                            evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                            evan@cosocial.ca
                            wrote last edited by
                            #80

                            @philip here's my long response.

                            Evan Prodromou (@evan@cosocial.ca)

                            I like playing video games and board games with an economic component. In these games, you build farms or factories or mines or whatever, and they generate resources that you can use to build armies or research centres or monuments, which in turn let you build more farms and mines and so on.

                            favicon

                            CoSocial (cosocial.ca)

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                            • evan@cosocial.caE evan@cosocial.ca

                              @anime_reference Wikipedia edits depend on page views. People edit the the pages when they read something that's untrue, clumsy, or misspelled. If they don't get page views, they don't get edits.

                              Wikimedia Foundation revenue depends on page views. People donate to Wikimedia when they land on a Wikipedia page with a donation request banner. If there aren't page views, WMF doesn't get donations.

                              Page views are a very big deal for Wikimedia.

                              evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                              evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                              evan@cosocial.ca
                              wrote last edited by
                              #81

                              @anime_reference here's my full response:

                              Evan Prodromou (@evan@cosocial.ca)

                              I like playing video games and board games with an economic component. In these games, you build farms or factories or mines or whatever, and they generate resources that you can use to build armies or research centres or monuments, which in turn let you build more farms and mines and so on.

                              favicon

                              CoSocial (cosocial.ca)

                              1 Reply Last reply
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                              • nickapos@mastodon.oncrete.ukN nickapos@mastodon.oncrete.uk

                                @evan Mozilla yes, Wikipedia no. Wikipedia is a lot more than user traffic. When someone wants to actually check the sources of AI they have to go to the source.

                                evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                                evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                                evan@cosocial.ca
                                wrote last edited by
                                #82

                                @nickapos Wikipedia is *NOT* a lot more than user traffic.

                                Evan Prodromou (@evan@cosocial.ca)

                                @anime_reference@wetdry.world Wikipedia edits depend on page views. People edit the the pages when they read something that's untrue, clumsy, or misspelled. If they don't get page views, they don't get edits. Wikimedia Foundation revenue depends on page views. People donate to Wikimedia when they land on a Wikipedia page with a donation request banner. If there aren't page views, WMF doesn't get donations. Page views are a very big deal for Wikimedia.

                                favicon

                                CoSocial (cosocial.ca)

                                nickapos@mastodon.oncrete.ukN 1 Reply Last reply
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                                • evan@cosocial.caE evan@cosocial.ca

                                  @anime_reference Wikipedia edits depend on page views. People edit the the pages when they read something that's untrue, clumsy, or misspelled. If they don't get page views, they don't get edits.

                                  Wikimedia Foundation revenue depends on page views. People donate to Wikimedia when they land on a Wikipedia page with a donation request banner. If there aren't page views, WMF doesn't get donations.

                                  Page views are a very big deal for Wikimedia.

                                  mkljczk@pl.fediverse.plM This user is from outside of this forum
                                  mkljczk@pl.fediverse.plM This user is from outside of this forum
                                  mkljczk@pl.fediverse.pl
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #83

                                  @evan@cosocial.ca @anime_reference@wetdry.world Wikipedia edits depend on autism.

                                  evan@cosocial.caE 1 Reply Last reply
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                                  • evan@cosocial.caE evan@cosocial.ca

                                    Since that time, Wikimedia Foundation has made a lot of deals with big companies who reuse Wikipedia and other Wikimedia data. (As a staff member, I was part of the initial product discovery for those deals.) I don't think any of those deals has taken into account the need for editing affordances in re-use products.

                                    evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                                    evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                                    evan@cosocial.ca
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #84

                                    I should also say that the Wikimedia editor community is a big drag on developing new interfaces for editing, since the editors are also the fact checkers. Getting a flood of new edits from ChatGPT users or Alexa users or Google search users is a WP editor's worst nightmare.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
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                                    • evan@cosocial.caE evan@cosocial.ca

                                      For those of us who depended on Mozilla as a standard bearer for open source and the open web, it's disheartening to see that ember dying. We needed a Mozilla that launched new products, not one that shut them down without moving forward.

                                      madbob@sociale.networkM This user is from outside of this forum
                                      madbob@sociale.networkM This user is from outside of this forum
                                      madbob@sociale.network
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #85

                                      @evan Firefox had a transformative impact, providing the platform upon which the modern web could be built. I still can't stop thinking about the impact Thunderbird would have had on the world of digital communications if it had had the same resources and attention.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
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                                      • mkljczk@pl.fediverse.plM mkljczk@pl.fediverse.pl

                                        @evan@cosocial.ca @anime_reference@wetdry.world Wikipedia edits depend on autism.

                                        evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
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                                        evan@cosocial.ca
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #86

                                        @mkljczk @anime_reference lol

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                                        • funcrunch@me.dmF funcrunch@me.dm

                                          @evan

                                          Sounds like Animal Crossing, Stardew Valley, or any number of other "cozy" games that don't focus on combat. (Which doesn't really help your analogy, admittedly)

                                          evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                                          evan@cosocial.caE This user is from outside of this forum
                                          evan@cosocial.ca
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #87

                                          @funcrunch both of those are economic games that depend on growth. They're fine examples. You can get boxed in on both games.

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