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  3. Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites!

Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites!

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  • S savera@mastodon.sdf.org

    @Brokar @sundogplanets @wraptile I’ll have you know that I’m not the malicious type.

    I wonder if these sats are protected against laser mischief makers. You know like they used to do with airplanes.

    wraptile@fosstodon.orgW This user is from outside of this forum
    wraptile@fosstodon.orgW This user is from outside of this forum
    wraptile@fosstodon.org
    wrote last edited by
    #77

    @savera they are way too far for any commercial lasers to reach

    S 1 Reply Last reply
    0
    • wraptile@fosstodon.orgW wraptile@fosstodon.org

      @sundogplanets and for what?

      I did some napkin math some time ago: all these satellites cost around 10-15B usd to deploy. This would be equivalent of 0.5 - 1 million cell towers at 10-20k usd (yeah that cheap).
      There are currently 7 million cell towers worldwide most of which are old and under-performing. With 1 million NEW cell towers with economies of scale we could have probably covered the same actual reach with better latency, access and affordability.

      Low orbit internet is a joke.

      toroidalcore@masto.hackers.townT This user is from outside of this forum
      toroidalcore@masto.hackers.townT This user is from outside of this forum
      toroidalcore@masto.hackers.town
      wrote last edited by
      #78

      @wraptile @sundogplanets I meant to post this as a reply:

      ToroidalCore (@toroidalcore@masto.hackers.town)

      I've wondered if Starlink would've made sense for them if fiber had been built out everywhere it was promised. (That is, the 'fiber is 100 ft away but $ISP won't connect me' crowd.) I still get Starlink adds in my area, even though wired internet is available and a much better value. (I put my address in back in the day, so presumably there is some targetting.)

      favicon

      Hackers.Town (masto.hackers.town)

      1 Reply Last reply
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      • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

        Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

        Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

        Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

        Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

        This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

        M This user is from outside of this forum
        M This user is from outside of this forum
        michkov@mas.to
        wrote last edited by
        #79

        @sundogplanets Don't you just hate it when a comet photobombs your satellite images?

        sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS 1 Reply Last reply
        0
        • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

          Some questions that keep coming up:
          There are gaps in the lines because this is a bunch of shorter exposures over the course of 10 minutes added together

          Kessler Syndrome is extremely bad for everybody, don't hope for it (though on my grumpier days I can definitely understand that perspective)

          The many parallel lines come from the orbits that have been chosen by megaconstellation operators, mostly Starlink. You can see that somewhat in various satellite visualizers like https://satellitetracker3d.com/

          rootwyrm@weird.autosR This user is from outside of this forum
          rootwyrm@weird.autosR This user is from outside of this forum
          rootwyrm@weird.autos
          wrote last edited by
          #80

          @sundogplanets "oh, but Kessler syndrome will just destroy all their stuff! Didn't you say that's good?"
          <infinite_screaming.gif>

          It's fine. It's FINE. IT'S FINE!
          Who the fuck needs ships that can navigate the oceans or an ozone layer or even an atmosphere or working communications infrastructure anyway?

          <imagine me slamming my head into the wall repeatedly>

          sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.orgA 2 Replies Last reply
          0
          • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

            Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

            Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

            Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

            Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

            This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

            cathos@merveilles.townC This user is from outside of this forum
            cathos@merveilles.townC This user is from outside of this forum
            cathos@merveilles.town
            wrote last edited by
            #81

            @sundogplanets it's horrifying. You get to see the grid into which our sky has been broken and bought up.

            1 Reply Last reply
            0
            • rootwyrm@weird.autosR rootwyrm@weird.autos

              @sundogplanets "oh, but Kessler syndrome will just destroy all their stuff! Didn't you say that's good?"
              <infinite_screaming.gif>

              It's fine. It's FINE. IT'S FINE!
              Who the fuck needs ships that can navigate the oceans or an ozone layer or even an atmosphere or working communications infrastructure anyway?

              <imagine me slamming my head into the wall repeatedly>

              sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
              sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
              sundogplanets@mastodon.social
              wrote last edited by
              #82

              @rootwyrm Thank you, I'm glad I'm not the only one head-wall-slamming

              rootwyrm@weird.autosR 1 Reply Last reply
              0
              • M michkov@mas.to

                @sundogplanets Don't you just hate it when a comet photobombs your satellite images?

                sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                sundogplanets@mastodon.social
                wrote last edited by
                #83

                @Michkov Can you please say this to all the people who replied to this image "ack-chew-ally I think this new sky-grid is beautiful"

                sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS M chemoelectric@masto.aiC 3 Replies Last reply
                0
                • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                  @Michkov Can you please say this to all the people who replied to this image "ack-chew-ally I think this new sky-grid is beautiful"

                  sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                  sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                  sundogplanets@mastodon.social
                  wrote last edited by
                  #84

                  @Michkov (only mostly kidding)

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  0
                  • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                    @rootwyrm Thank you, I'm glad I'm not the only one head-wall-slamming

                    rootwyrm@weird.autosR This user is from outside of this forum
                    rootwyrm@weird.autosR This user is from outside of this forum
                    rootwyrm@weird.autos
                    wrote last edited by
                    #85

                    @sundogplanets the ones who are all "you're overreacting," I don't know how I have not been charged with murder. I really don't.

                    There is a reason I included the detail that a society with *interstellar travel* and *aneutronic fusion* completely lost access to an entire planet for nearly a CENTURY when two large freighters collided in mid orbit at speed. And that was not NEARLY as bad as the mess we are in.

                    argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.orgA 1 Reply Last reply
                    0
                    • brokar@mastodon.socialB brokar@mastodon.social

                      @sundogplanets @wraptile

                      Well, you can also spy with the satellites. Can't do that with a cell tower (not that effective) and destroying one satellite does nothing to the system.

                      I really wish China would launch their own 10.000 satellites and program them on a collision course with the Starlink ones, forcing all of them to enter the atmosphere and burn out.

                      I would personally thank Xi for making astronomy possible again 😉

                      cosmiccactus@mastodon.socialC This user is from outside of this forum
                      cosmiccactus@mastodon.socialC This user is from outside of this forum
                      cosmiccactus@mastodon.social
                      wrote last edited by
                      #86

                      @Brokar @sundogplanets @wraptile It's also much more difficult to destroy a satellite, almost impossible with conventional weapons.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      0
                      • wraptile@fosstodon.orgW wraptile@fosstodon.org

                        @savera they are way too far for any commercial lasers to reach

                        S This user is from outside of this forum
                        S This user is from outside of this forum
                        savera@mastodon.sdf.org
                        wrote last edited by
                        #87

                        @wraptile I see

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        0
                        • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                          Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                          Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                          Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                          Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                          This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                          argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.orgA This user is from outside of this forum
                          argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.orgA This user is from outside of this forum
                          argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.org
                          wrote last edited by
                          #88

                          @sundogplanets

                          Putting an AI data center in orbit is impossible. The laws of man may be malleable, but the laws of thermodynamics are not.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          0
                          • rootwyrm@weird.autosR rootwyrm@weird.autos

                            @sundogplanets "oh, but Kessler syndrome will just destroy all their stuff! Didn't you say that's good?"
                            <infinite_screaming.gif>

                            It's fine. It's FINE. IT'S FINE!
                            Who the fuck needs ships that can navigate the oceans or an ozone layer or even an atmosphere or working communications infrastructure anyway?

                            <imagine me slamming my head into the wall repeatedly>

                            argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.orgA This user is from outside of this forum
                            argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.orgA This user is from outside of this forum
                            argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.org
                            wrote last edited by
                            #89

                            @rootwyrm

                            Kessler syndrome in low Earth orbit won't entirely prevent the deployment of replacement GPS satellites or otherwise launching rockets into outer space.

                            Probably. One hopes.

                            Link Preview Image
                            Can Space Debris Block Access to Outer Space?

                            Analysis of Kessler syndrome risks and whether orbital debris could prevent launches beyond Earth. Examines accidental cascades, deliberate dispersal threats, and mitigation strategies.

                            favicon

                            Forethought (www.forethought.org)

                            @sundogplanets

                            sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS 1 Reply Last reply
                            0
                            • argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.orgA argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.org

                              @rootwyrm

                              Kessler syndrome in low Earth orbit won't entirely prevent the deployment of replacement GPS satellites or otherwise launching rockets into outer space.

                              Probably. One hopes.

                              Link Preview Image
                              Can Space Debris Block Access to Outer Space?

                              Analysis of Kessler syndrome risks and whether orbital debris could prevent launches beyond Earth. Examines accidental cascades, deliberate dispersal threats, and mitigation strategies.

                              favicon

                              Forethought (www.forethought.org)

                              @sundogplanets

                              sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                              sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS This user is from outside of this forum
                              sundogplanets@mastodon.social
                              wrote last edited by
                              #90

                              @argv_minus_one @rootwyrm It'll just make it WAY WAY WAY riskier and more likely to require multiple attempts.

                              argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.orgA 1 Reply Last reply
                              0
                              • rootwyrm@weird.autosR rootwyrm@weird.autos

                                @sundogplanets the ones who are all "you're overreacting," I don't know how I have not been charged with murder. I really don't.

                                There is a reason I included the detail that a society with *interstellar travel* and *aneutronic fusion* completely lost access to an entire planet for nearly a CENTURY when two large freighters collided in mid orbit at speed. And that was not NEARLY as bad as the mess we are in.

                                argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.orgA This user is from outside of this forum
                                argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.orgA This user is from outside of this forum
                                argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.org
                                wrote last edited by
                                #91

                                @rootwyrm

                                How could a society have aneutronic fusion and interstellar travel, yet be unable to armor or shield their ships enough to shrug off impact by orbital debris?

                                I mean, even if you don't have Star Trek deflector shields, but you do have a rocket powered by a fusion reactor, then you should be able to at least slap some pretty thick slabs of armor on your ship and still fly.

                                And not even weird exotic armor. Orbital debris hits with the force of a grenade, not a nuke.

                                @sundogplanets

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                0
                                • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                                  @argv_minus_one @rootwyrm It'll just make it WAY WAY WAY riskier and more likely to require multiple attempts.

                                  argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.orgA This user is from outside of this forum
                                  argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.orgA This user is from outside of this forum
                                  argv_minus_one@mastodon.sdf.org
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #92

                                  @sundogplanets

                                  Not according to the numbers in the linked article. 0.5% chance of collision per launch is not great, especially if the mission isn't unmanned, but with odds like that you can still put GPS satellites into orbit pretty reliably.

                                  @rootwyrm

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  0
                                  • guigsy@mstdn.socialG This user is from outside of this forum
                                    guigsy@mstdn.socialG This user is from outside of this forum
                                    guigsy@mstdn.social
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #93

                                    @Tofu_Golem @sundogplanets I think the current Starlinks consume a sustained 22kW! These server sats would be a few times bigger. But it's not impossible. The engineering can be done.

                                    I hate the idea. I still think it'll fail in many other ways. But the engineering has largely been proven already.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    0
                                    • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                                      Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                                      Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                                      Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                                      Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                                      This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                                      hipsterelectron@circumstances.runH This user is from outside of this forum
                                      hipsterelectron@circumstances.runH This user is from outside of this forum
                                      hipsterelectron@circumstances.run
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #94

                                      @sundogplanets does the advent of kessler syndrome also definitionally imply more space surveillance of remote spots on earth?

                                      sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS 1 Reply Last reply
                                      0
                                      • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                                        Don't worry, Sam, SpaceX won't ACTUALLY launch 7,000 satellites! (There are currently 10,296 Starlink sats in orbit)

                                        Don't worry, SpaceX said they'd get their satellites below magnitude 7! (They have not https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2025MNRAS.544L..15M/PUB_PDF)

                                        Don't worry, they won't actually start Kessler Syndrome! https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

                                        Don't worry, they won't actually launch a million AI data centres into orbit!! https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

                                        This is the fucking worst I-told-you-so https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

                                        john_loader@ohai.socialJ This user is from outside of this forum
                                        john_loader@ohai.socialJ This user is from outside of this forum
                                        john_loader@ohai.social
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #95

                                        @sundogplanets Anti alien minefield!

                                        1 Reply Last reply
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                                        • sundogplanets@mastodon.socialS sundogplanets@mastodon.social

                                          @Michkov Can you please say this to all the people who replied to this image "ack-chew-ally I think this new sky-grid is beautiful"

                                          M This user is from outside of this forum
                                          M This user is from outside of this forum
                                          michkov@mas.to
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #96

                                          @sundogplanets On a serious note, that may be a result of living under light pollution for your whole live. With so many people living in cities, they don't even know what they lose to the mega constellations.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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