There aren't a lot of things I agree with Mark Carney about, but there's one area where he and I are in *total* accord: the old, US-dominated, "rules-based international order" was total bullshit:
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Rationing is so psychologically scarring that it induces people to make long-delayed investments that result in *permanent* changes to their consumption habits. Maybe you've known for a long time that an induction top would be better for your indoor air quality *and* your cooking than the gas range you have now, but you don't want to buy a whole new appliance and pay for an electrician to run a high-wattage line in expensive conduit from your breaker panel to your kitchen.
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But if you're an Indian restaurateur who can no longer get *any* cooking gas - because it's being rationed for household use - then you are going out to buy whatever induction top you can lay hands on. Maybe it's a cheap, low-powered single burner one that plugs into your existing electrics, or maybe you're splashing out and swapping out your whole gas appliance. Whichever it is, you are no longer interested in your chef's insistence that *real* cooking gets done over gas.
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But if you're an Indian restaurateur who can no longer get *any* cooking gas - because it's being rationed for household use - then you are going out to buy whatever induction top you can lay hands on. Maybe it's a cheap, low-powered single burner one that plugs into your existing electrics, or maybe you're splashing out and swapping out your whole gas appliance. Whichever it is, you are no longer interested in your chef's insistence that *real* cooking gets done over gas.
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If your chef can't cook on an induction top, your chef will need to find employment elsewhere.
This is going on all over the world right now, as people buy EVs (and pay to have chargers installed at home - maybe getting a twofer on their conduit runs with two high power lines run through the same conduit infrastructure).
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If your chef can't cook on an induction top, your chef will need to find employment elsewhere.
This is going on all over the world right now, as people buy EVs (and pay to have chargers installed at home - maybe getting a twofer on their conduit runs with two high power lines run through the same conduit infrastructure).
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In Australia - where the last shipment of gas for the foreseeable came into port last week - people are calling their local EV dealers and offering to buy whatever car is on the lot, sight unseen.
Meanwhile, in Ethiopia, a series of dollar-related crises caused the country to ban imports of internal combustion engines altogether (oil and gas are denominated in dollars, which means you can only get oil if you first sell stuff to Americans or others who'll pay in dollars).
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In Australia - where the last shipment of gas for the foreseeable came into port last week - people are calling their local EV dealers and offering to buy whatever car is on the lot, sight unseen.
Meanwhile, in Ethiopia, a series of dollar-related crises caused the country to ban imports of internal combustion engines altogether (oil and gas are denominated in dollars, which means you can only get oil if you first sell stuff to Americans or others who'll pay in dollars).
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The country's fleet of noisy, dirty motorbikes is being swiftly replaced by ebikes that get eight miles to the *penny*:
Ethiopia Expands Vehicle Import Ban to Trucks, Pushing Electric Transport
• Ethiopia expands ICE vehicle import ban to include trucks• EV numbers rise amid push for carbon-neutral transport by 2030• Hydropower, LNG support
Ecofin Agency (www.ecofinagency.com)
Ebikes are insanely great technology. Cheap, rugged and reliable, they're basically bicycles that abolish *hills*. Once you've gotten accustomed to an ebike - maybe you've invested in a folding helmet and a raincoat - you'll never go back.
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The country's fleet of noisy, dirty motorbikes is being swiftly replaced by ebikes that get eight miles to the *penny*:
Ethiopia Expands Vehicle Import Ban to Trucks, Pushing Electric Transport
• Ethiopia expands ICE vehicle import ban to include trucks• EV numbers rise amid push for carbon-neutral transport by 2030• Hydropower, LNG support
Ecofin Agency (www.ecofinagency.com)
Ebikes are insanely great technology. Cheap, rugged and reliable, they're basically bicycles that abolish *hills*. Once you've gotten accustomed to an ebike - maybe you've invested in a folding helmet and a raincoat - you'll never go back.
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The advantages of an ebike commute over a car commute are legion, but my favorite little pleasure is the ability to easily make a stop at a nice coffee shop halfway between home and work, rather than being stuck buying shitty chain coffee near the office.
Four years ago, another mad emperor, Vladimir Putin, invaded Ukraine - and in so doing, catapulted Europe's energy transition into the Gretacene, with unimaginable defeats for the fossil fuel lobby.
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The advantages of an ebike commute over a car commute are legion, but my favorite little pleasure is the ability to easily make a stop at a nice coffee shop halfway between home and work, rather than being stuck buying shitty chain coffee near the office.
Four years ago, another mad emperor, Vladimir Putin, invaded Ukraine - and in so doing, catapulted Europe's energy transition into the Gretacene, with unimaginable defeats for the fossil fuel lobby.
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Not just subsidies for the energy transition, but also policy shifts in areas that were deadlocked for a decade, like approvals for balcony solar, which is transforming the continent. Even the UK, one of the oil industry's most reliable vassal states, is now greenlighting balcony solar:
Government to make 'plug-in solar' available within months
'Plug-in' solar panels to be in shops within months, offering households chance to significantly cut energy bills.
GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
This may not sound like much, but the UK is a country whose politics is composed 50% hatred of migrants and trans people, and 50% incredibly stupid planning battles.
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Not just subsidies for the energy transition, but also policy shifts in areas that were deadlocked for a decade, like approvals for balcony solar, which is transforming the continent. Even the UK, one of the oil industry's most reliable vassal states, is now greenlighting balcony solar:
Government to make 'plug-in solar' available within months
'Plug-in' solar panels to be in shops within months, offering households chance to significantly cut energy bills.
GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
This may not sound like much, but the UK is a country whose politics is composed 50% hatred of migrants and trans people, and 50% incredibly stupid planning battles.
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Great Britain is a magical land where your neighbors can ask the government to prevent you from installing double-glazing on the grounds that it will change the "historic character" of their neighborhood of terraced Victorian homes.
I once lost a fight to get permission to put a little glass greenhouse on my balcony on the grounds that it would "alter the facade" of the undistinguished low-rise 1960s industrial building I live on top of.
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Great Britain is a magical land where your neighbors can ask the government to prevent you from installing double-glazing on the grounds that it will change the "historic character" of their neighborhood of terraced Victorian homes.
I once lost a fight to get permission to put a little glass greenhouse on my balcony on the grounds that it would "alter the facade" of the undistinguished low-rise 1960s industrial building I live on top of.
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The fact that HMG is going to tell your facade-obsessed neighbors to fuck off all the way into the sun so that you can hang solar panels off your balcony is nothing short of a *miracle*.
Comrade Putin's contribution to oil-soaked Britain's energy transition can't be overstated.
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The fact that HMG is going to tell your facade-obsessed neighbors to fuck off all the way into the sun so that you can hang solar panels off your balcony is nothing short of a *miracle*.
Comrade Putin's contribution to oil-soaked Britain's energy transition can't be overstated.
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Thanks to "free market" policies that sent energy prices soaring after the Ukraine invasion, Brits installed so much solar (*despite* the existing impediments to solarization) that now the government is *begging* us to use *more* energy this summer, because the grid can't absorb all those lovely free electrons:
Great Britain households to be urged to use more power this summer as renewables soar
Incentives to absorb surplus wind and solar energy could help balance the grid and lower bills
the Guardian (www.theguardian.com)
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Thanks to "free market" policies that sent energy prices soaring after the Ukraine invasion, Brits installed so much solar (*despite* the existing impediments to solarization) that now the government is *begging* us to use *more* energy this summer, because the grid can't absorb all those lovely free electrons:
Great Britain households to be urged to use more power this summer as renewables soar
Incentives to absorb surplus wind and solar energy could help balance the grid and lower bills
the Guardian (www.theguardian.com)
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The UK is on a glide-path to adopting the Australian plan. Australia *also* benefited from Trump I's solar embargo, receiving a ton of cheap solar that would otherwise have ended up in America. Now Australia has so much solar that they're *giving away electricity*, with three free hours of unlimited energy every day. Stick your dishwasher, clothes-dryer and EV charger on a timer, invest in a battery or two, and fill your boots:
Free Electricity. Like, at no cost. For everyone. Now.
Let's talk about affordability, abundance, and Australia--and why thanks to Trump we can't have nice things
(billmckibben.substack.com)
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The UK is on a glide-path to adopting the Australian plan. Australia *also* benefited from Trump I's solar embargo, receiving a ton of cheap solar that would otherwise have ended up in America. Now Australia has so much solar that they're *giving away electricity*, with three free hours of unlimited energy every day. Stick your dishwasher, clothes-dryer and EV charger on a timer, invest in a battery or two, and fill your boots:
Free Electricity. Like, at no cost. For everyone. Now.
Let's talk about affordability, abundance, and Australia--and why thanks to Trump we can't have nice things
(billmckibben.substack.com)
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(Maybe at this point you're thinking dark thoughts about critical minerals and such. That's not the problem you think it is and it's getting better every day. To take just one example, lithium batteries are about to be replaced with *sodium* batteries. Sodium is the world's sixth-most abundant element:)
China puts a sodium-ion battery into an EV for the first time — it can drive 248 miles on a single charge
A new vehicle is the first mass-produced passenger EV with a viable sodium-based alternative to conventional lithium-ion batteries.
Live Science (www.livescience.com)
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(Maybe at this point you're thinking dark thoughts about critical minerals and such. That's not the problem you think it is and it's getting better every day. To take just one example, lithium batteries are about to be replaced with *sodium* batteries. Sodium is the world's sixth-most abundant element:)
China puts a sodium-ion battery into an EV for the first time — it can drive 248 miles on a single charge
A new vehicle is the first mass-produced passenger EV with a viable sodium-based alternative to conventional lithium-ion batteries.
Live Science (www.livescience.com)
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The Strait of Epstein crisis is going to do more to accelerate permanent, unidirectional migration away from fossil fuels to cleantech than decades of environmental activism. Cleantech is *so much better* than fossil fuels - cheaper, more reliable, cleaner - that anyone who tries it becomes an instant convert. That's why the fossil fuel industry has been so insistent that no one get to try it!
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The Strait of Epstein crisis is going to do more to accelerate permanent, unidirectional migration away from fossil fuels to cleantech than decades of environmental activism. Cleantech is *so much better* than fossil fuels - cheaper, more reliable, cleaner - that anyone who tries it becomes an instant convert. That's why the fossil fuel industry has been so insistent that no one get to try it!
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To take just one example: Texas ranchers have been solarizing, thanks to the state's bizarre "free market" energy system that sees energy prices spiking so high during cold snaps that you literally have to choose between freezing to death and going bankrupt. Solar is *great* for agriculture, especially in climate-ravaged Texas, where it provides crucial shade for crops and livestock, while substantially reducing soil evaporation, resulting in substantial irrigation savings.
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To take just one example: Texas ranchers have been solarizing, thanks to the state's bizarre "free market" energy system that sees energy prices spiking so high during cold snaps that you literally have to choose between freezing to death and going bankrupt. Solar is *great* for agriculture, especially in climate-ravaged Texas, where it provides crucial shade for crops and livestock, while substantially reducing soil evaporation, resulting in substantial irrigation savings.
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When the oil-captured Texas legislature introduced a bill to force electric companies to add one watt of fossil power for every watt of solar that their customers installed, furious ranchers from blood red Republican rural districts flooded their town hall meetings, decrying the plan as "DEI for fossil fuels." The bill died:
Renewables are now the ‘Costco’ of energy production, Bill McKibben says
Austin Sierra Club hosted a virtual conversation on May 6 with climate activist Bill McKibben on the current state of environmental affairs.
Austin Free Press (austinfreepress.org)
This is the template for the long-foreseeable future.
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When the oil-captured Texas legislature introduced a bill to force electric companies to add one watt of fossil power for every watt of solar that their customers installed, furious ranchers from blood red Republican rural districts flooded their town hall meetings, decrying the plan as "DEI for fossil fuels." The bill died:
Renewables are now the ‘Costco’ of energy production, Bill McKibben says
Austin Sierra Club hosted a virtual conversation on May 6 with climate activist Bill McKibben on the current state of environmental affairs.
Austin Free Press (austinfreepress.org)
This is the template for the long-foreseeable future.
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Thanks to Trump's stupid, bloody, unforgivable war of choice in the Gulf, the world is going to install *unimaginable* amounts of cleantech. They're gonna throw away their water heaters, motorbikes, furnaces and cars and replace them with all-electric versions. They're going to cover their roofs and balconies with panels. The battery industry will experience a sustained boom. The fortunes that fossil fuel companies are reaping from the current shortage is their last windfall.
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Thanks to Trump's stupid, bloody, unforgivable war of choice in the Gulf, the world is going to install *unimaginable* amounts of cleantech. They're gonna throw away their water heaters, motorbikes, furnaces and cars and replace them with all-electric versions. They're going to cover their roofs and balconies with panels. The battery industry will experience a sustained boom. The fortunes that fossil fuel companies are reaping from the current shortage is their last windfall.
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The writing is on the wall. Trump opened Alaska for drilling and the oil companies noped out because they couldn't find a bank that would loan them the money needed to get started. Then it happened again in Venezuela. This de-fossilizing was already the direction of travel, the only question was the pace at which the transition would proceed - and Comrade Trump has just stomped all over the (liquid natural) gas pedal.
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The writing is on the wall. Trump opened Alaska for drilling and the oil companies noped out because they couldn't find a bank that would loan them the money needed to get started. Then it happened again in Venezuela. This de-fossilizing was already the direction of travel, the only question was the pace at which the transition would proceed - and Comrade Trump has just stomped all over the (liquid natural) gas pedal.
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Energy is just one realm where Trump is doing praxis. One of the most exciting developments that Trumpismo's incontinent belligerence has induced is the global *technology* transition.
For decades, the only people pointing out the dangers of using America's cash-grabbing, privacy invading defective tech exports were digital rights hippies like me, and our victories were modest and far between.
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Energy is just one realm where Trump is doing praxis. One of the most exciting developments that Trumpismo's incontinent belligerence has induced is the global *technology* transition.
For decades, the only people pointing out the dangers of using America's cash-grabbing, privacy invading defective tech exports were digital rights hippies like me, and our victories were modest and far between.
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Despite the Snowden revelations, despite the tech industry's prolific snood-cocking at EU privacy regulators and Canadian lawmakers, we all just carried on using these incredibly dangerous, steadily enshittifying Big Tech products. We even run our governments and structurally important companies off Big Tech. We let US tech companies update (that is, downgrade) the software on our cars and tractors, our pacemakers and ventilators, our power plants and telephone switches.
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Despite the Snowden revelations, despite the tech industry's prolific snood-cocking at EU privacy regulators and Canadian lawmakers, we all just carried on using these incredibly dangerous, steadily enshittifying Big Tech products. We even run our governments and structurally important companies off Big Tech. We let US tech companies update (that is, downgrade) the software on our cars and tractors, our pacemakers and ventilators, our power plants and telephone switches.
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There's lots of reasons for this. For one thing, ripping out and replacing all that software and firmware is a prodigious challenge, as is building the data-centers to host it for every "digitally sovereign" country.
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There's lots of reasons for this. For one thing, ripping out and replacing all that software and firmware is a prodigious challenge, as is building the data-centers to host it for every "digitally sovereign" country.
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Add to that the complexity of successfully migrating data, edit histories, archives and identities and you're looking at a very big lift. So long as the American tech bosses kept their enshittificatory gambits to a measured, slow flow, they could keep the pain beneath the threshold where it was worth us boiling frogs leaping out of their pot.
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