i've heard a few times that "waymos will make streets safer" so i went and looked up sf's traffic fatality statistics and they're pretty much identical
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it feels like a lot of the arguments i hear boil down to "what if none of the bad things were happening right now, and instead, good things happened instead"
and sure, if that were true, things would be good
but, well, all of the bad things are happening already and none of the good things are any closer to appearing
and i'm just not confident "wait and see if everything reverses course" is a sensible way to evaluate the impact of new technologies
@tef This is particularly important because the people controlling the technology have shown no interest in achieving those good things. Good things rarely happen by change. So putting the emphasis on things that may magically appear is really just wishful thinking or a rethorical device to tell you are blocking some possible progress ignoring the bad already happening.
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@tef The Waymo vehicles mimic human drivers too well: loitering and blocking crosswalks for right on red and tailgating cyclists on the road. Folks will say “gotcha; they’re safe,” but this misses a bigger intangible: these vehicles are a fucking nuisance and clog the road. Being safer than a human while being more plentiful and annoying is not a significant improvement.
@matt @tef Maybe Waymos mimic human drivers because they fall back to remote human drivers when the algorithm fails: https://www.newsweek.com/waymo-reveals-remote-workers-in-philippines-help-guide-its-driverless-cars-11478439
Does the driver have a valid license in your jurisdiction? Should they? If they blow past a stopped school bus at full speed, who gets cited? https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/ntsb-investigates-additional-incident-between-waymo-austin-isd/
Start peeling back the PR from any of this tech and it's all casual lawbreaking, denial of consent, and putting the public at risk with no recourse.
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we're destroying the open web
we're burning down the closest thing i've ever seen in my life to the library of alexandria
and people are explaining to me how warm it keeps their hands, and maybe, in the future, the ashes will contain the secrets of the universe
@tef in pricipal, i agree with you, but in the spirit of “the purpose of a system is what is does”, the so-called "open web" is the very thing that has created so many of these harms.
surveillance capitalism, pervasive ad-tech, concentration of wealth & power in the hands of billionaire tech bros, abusive social media algorithms, etc.
i misgivings that preserving the "open web" we have is an unmitigated good.
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@vfig blog seems sus, makes this claim pretty early "pre-modern peasant farmers – a majority of all of the humans who have ever lived," when like farming hasn't been around for the majority of time humans have been around. Also later they make some huge assumptions that most people get weekends & 8 hour days & that's meeting what they call both sustainability and respectability needs.. and like I don't think a lot of people were like "oh yeah I can't wait to be a Roman peasant, the quality of life will be great, conquer me please" so using that as a placeholder for even other people of the era is not great.
Yeah I ran those articles past a friend who lived in a traditional village in Cameroon for a bit and he said that Bret is really overclaiming the universality there.
Devereaux knows his shit about the details of Roman economics and military organization, I have been reading his blog for years, but yeah I'm with you on that criticism.
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similarly, i've heard a few times that "we might cure cancer", and sure enough some brute force computation can fold proteins fast
but in practice it is more likely these tools will be used to fabricate experimental results, push dietary supplements and other snakeoil cures
and more coarsely, ai isn't pouring funding into the CDC, ai isn't reversing the destruction of the FDA, and is more than likely going to be used to justify those things
@tef, I can never remember what “CDC” is, other than being something foreign.
So I just think of it as the Cult of the Dead Cow, and now you do too.
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@thierna @tef also machine translation is only available between some languages - if you need a language that th machines don’t know it is likely worse than useless.
There is also a really dark pattern today where translations are shown before the original language - and it is really easy to not see that it is a translation (not just happening with - also with videos)
I hate when gmail or google search translates stuff before showing me the original (and also that multilingual search is bad)
@Rycaut I really hate this fake voice, which I have to turn off as I want to hear the original voice of the person in the video.
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i've heard a few times that "waymos will make streets safer" so i went and looked up sf's traffic fatality statistics and they're pretty much identical
i mean, there is a slight increase over the last two years but there's sufficient variance to avoid suggesting a trend
as i understand it, waymos tend to take people off busses and other forms of transit, rather than out of their own cars
so i'm doubtful it will lower deaths on the road, just the number of busses
@tef I'm interested in these stats. Can you point me at your sources?
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i've heard a few times that "waymos will make streets safer" so i went and looked up sf's traffic fatality statistics and they're pretty much identical
i mean, there is a slight increase over the last two years but there's sufficient variance to avoid suggesting a trend
as i understand it, waymos tend to take people off busses and other forms of transit, rather than out of their own cars
so i'm doubtful it will lower deaths on the road, just the number of busses
@tef Waymos tend to take people out of Uber/Lyft/Taxi services. Compare Waymos injuries/deaths to Uber/Lyft/Taxi injuries deaths. Even if Waymos is only as good of a driver as a human, Waymo will reduce injury/death bc there is no driver, so one fewer person to injure/kill in a crash.
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What's the point of working long hours, there's only so much you can do to a wheat field
@EndlessMason @tef I'm pretty sure there's a word for this. Ped...icure? Ped...erasty? It's on the tip of my tongue.
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@EndlessMason @tef I'm pretty sure there's a word for this. Ped...icure? Ped...erasty? It's on the tip of my tongue.
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@EndlessMason @tef Maybe pedigree? Pedals? Peddle?
It's a mystery to me.
Side note: is a pedometer a tool for counting Epstein clients?
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@tef maybe, and I want to stress it's just an idea of mine, of which I'm not sure, they are killing the open web to give us AI also in order to control us more. Let me explain: you can't easily run an "AI" on you own pc unless you can spend a lot in hardware (and electricity of course). So you need to rely on their data centers , and so no more private stuff in your pc... everything flows in their hands. The open web is maybe more freedom than they are willing to allow us ? Should this idea be true then this requires us to fight back, unless we want to give up our freedom. Which I don't personally.
@andre123 @tef Well, running local takes a lot less than people have been lead to believe. You can run quite a decent bit on even just CPU alone, albeit slowly. And the power usage isn't that bad. Companies use a lot of cheats and shortcuts for the sake of making it faster, bigger context, etc. It adds up almost exponentially.
Besides, I would argue they started killing the open Web *before* the fake "pretend LLMs are general AI" scam started. (Though this idea may have occurred to them.)
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@andre123 @tef Well, running local takes a lot less than people have been lead to believe. You can run quite a decent bit on even just CPU alone, albeit slowly. And the power usage isn't that bad. Companies use a lot of cheats and shortcuts for the sake of making it faster, bigger context, etc. It adds up almost exponentially.
Besides, I would argue they started killing the open Web *before* the fake "pretend LLMs are general AI" scam started. (Though this idea may have occurred to them.)
@andre123 @tef As a side note, I will admit here that local can also disappear overnight though. There is no such thing as an actual open model, just "freely" available ones. They do not share the training data or methods in any form. Why they get away with calling them "open" I do not know. There is no community effort to make an actually open model that I know of. If corporations decide to control everything they can stop providing models for local... This hasn't occurred to them. Yet.
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we're destroying the open web
we're burning down the closest thing i've ever seen in my life to the library of alexandria
and people are explaining to me how warm it keeps their hands, and maybe, in the future, the ashes will contain the secrets of the universe
My website is getting _hammered_ by AI scraper bot networks. I had to upgrade my hosting plan twice last year, just to keep outages at a semi-acceptable level.
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sure enough machine translation has reasonably proven itself as a mostly public good, albeit at the expense of the translation industry
so i am aware that good things can come with bad prices, but i haven't really seen much good and i am seeing a lot of bad things
it literally breaks my heart that the public web now sits behind a proof of work system, forcing strangers to mine coins to buy access to webpages
because a bunch of tech companies are desperate for an poison-free training set
@tef mhh I'm afraid it currently looks like a net public good because the detrimental effects will just take a generation or two to materialize.
You know, once the first generation that never had to learn a foreign language in order to communicate or consume media will become adults I suspect there will be measurable effects, cause language shapes reality
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we're destroying the open web
we're burning down the closest thing i've ever seen in my life to the library of alexandria
and people are explaining to me how warm it keeps their hands, and maybe, in the future, the ashes will contain the secrets of the universe
@tef It breaks my heart.
There are many, many things in this world that break my heart, but this is one of them.
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we're destroying the open web
we're burning down the closest thing i've ever seen in my life to the library of alexandria
and people are explaining to me how warm it keeps their hands, and maybe, in the future, the ashes will contain the secrets of the universe
@tef I am working for the opposite. And I think this will be successful.
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@tef I think it gives people more options than just a bus or drive or bike and any safety improvements, however small, are welcomed. Imagine when Uber just started until flash ahead and waymo basically replaced human drivers. It will be half the time to get to buses with 15-30 people.
I wonder if the bus drivers have a union
@MeaningfulBits @tef All that does is increase traffic/sprawl and make transport less efficient and dense. Car centrism is a disease, and waymo is only spreading more of it.
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My website is getting _hammered_ by AI scraper bot networks. I had to upgrade my hosting plan twice last year, just to keep outages at a semi-acceptable level.
@juergen_hubert @tef You need a tarpit then. An endless generator of noise, rate limited, to keep the bots busy.
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@tef I'm interested in these stats. Can you point me at your sources?
@tef So this is *a* source: https://www.nhtsa.gov/file-downloads?p=nhtsa/downloads/FARS/
I don't know if it's what you are referencing.
