Both Meta & Microsoft have said they're shedding staff explicitly to free up cash flow to invest in AI;
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@TCatInReality @HarriettMB @ChrisMayLA6 the machines will decide for us. Obviously.
@mgleadow @HarriettMB @ChrisMayLA6
Early tests show AI making some very dangerous decisions
King's study finds AI chose nuclear signalling in 95% of simulated crises | King's College London
Artificial intelligence (AI) models used for a simulated war game escalated conflicts by threatening nuclear strikes in 95% of scenarios, according to new research from King’s College London.
King's College London (www.kcl.ac.uk)
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I think the final post may be right - one last throw of the dice in a bid to avoid a 'correction' in their share price (see the warning today from the BoE about UK share prices, which is just as applicable to US ones, in my view)
@ChrisMayLA6 yes, I have seen today an economist talk about the Wile E Coyote effect (in relation to the Iran war and the oil crisis). People seem to want to have their stock market party go on forever, decoupling it from annoying reality.
But in the end, forecasting is hard, especially when it is about the future
. A tech bubble burst has been predicted several times already. The monopoly position of those companies does give them remarkable resilience... -
@cstross TSMC is working on going from 3 nm to 2 nm fabrication.
On the one hand, that's a big change, percentage-wise.
On the other hand, only TSMC is doing this because the entire world economy can afford at most one fab.
On the third hand, it's not clear there's any actual advantage to making the change. There's almost certainly better things to do with that money. But line must more tinyness! is built into the whole process.
@graydon @cstross @david_chisnall @linuxgnome @ChrisMayLA6 The percentage is only in marketing. There are only small improvements in power, performance, etc (like 10-15%) but with a doubling in mask costs. SRAMs and wires are not scaling and logic gates are no longer getting any cheaper to print.
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@mdm @graydon @david_chisnall @linuxgnome @ChrisMayLA6 Well you *can* if you use muons instead of electrons but then you have to do your computing inside a particle accelerator and everything is radioactive and on fire
@cstross that almost feels like an improvement after /wave at all of this
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@graydon @david_chisnall @linuxgnome @ChrisMayLA6 More to the point: the end is in sight for the annual gains Moore's Law accustomed everybody to—you can't build circuits smaller than atomic orbitals—but it has run for over 40 years, so everybody in a decision-making position has grown up expecting it to continue. Not so much in semiconductors, but everyone *else*: VCs, PE firms, software, the general public.
The cluetrain is bound to run off the track and derail in an unploughed field.
@cstross
fortunately, *various new developments* in computing have really focused minds on efficient computation and elegant algorithmic solutions... -
@beemoh @linuxgnome @ChrisMayLA6
It's a weird thing because Microsoft made a really nice mobile GUI, and then rolled it into a desktop OS where it made no sense and everyone hated it. As a result, everyone also hated Windows Phone because they thought the UI would be as bad on the phone.
It's a weird product where everyone I know who actually used it loved it, but everyone else hated it.
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@graydon @david_chisnall @linuxgnome @ChrisMayLA6
The logical end-point after the node size bottoms out is going to be for the inherent deflation to become evident—fabs get amortized over time, so the product stops being premium and becomes a cash cow, and prices have to drop.
Nvidia can't survive that. Intel can't survive that. They need something like the AI hyperscalers to keep demand high, but the demand is artificial, and actual consumer demand is soft if not soggy.
Crash is inevitable.
@cstross @graydon @david_chisnall @linuxgnome @ChrisMayLA6
An AI crash will absolutely happen, just like the Internet crash happened in 2001!
Right now, the game is to position yourself as the Google or Amazon of AI, not the Excite or Pets.com
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@graydon @cstross @david_chisnall @linuxgnome @ChrisMayLA6 The percentage is only in marketing. There are only small improvements in power, performance, etc (like 10-15%) but with a doubling in mask costs. SRAMs and wires are not scaling and logic gates are no longer getting any cheaper to print.
@kurtmrufa @graydon @cstross @david_chisnall @linuxgnome @ChrisMayLA6
Vertical stacking and the ability to wick away heat are where it's at now!
And maybe quantum will start a new scale curve?
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@mdm @graydon @david_chisnall @linuxgnome @ChrisMayLA6 Well you *can* if you use muons instead of electrons but then you have to do your computing inside a particle accelerator and everything is radioactive and on fire
@cstross @mdm @graydon @david_chisnall @linuxgnome @ChrisMayLA6
TBH that sounds metal A F !
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@david_chisnall It is, once again, a solution looking for the right problem.
LLMs seem to have some uses where they're better than other solutions (translation might be one) but those are too niche to sell them to everyone on the planet.
So they try to sell them as search engines, copywriters, programmers and a dozen other things just to attract more companies even if LLMs are a poor choice for their needs.
@dfyx @david_chisnall or translation might not be one: I learned of an example today (English -> French where the word "digit" got translated as "chiffre" (numerical digit) instead of "doigt" = "finger" that the original was talking about (in the context of workplace safety).
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