Just like 2008 had "Subprime Mortgages (or "Dot Com" crash) that nobody understood, 2026 has "Circular AI Revenue" deals.
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Multi billion dollar game of "hot potato" or musical chairs.
Who is holding the debt when the music stops and they can't pass it on?
@pseudonym @nixCraft I would just look at any other Ponzi scheme.
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Just like 2008 had "Subprime Mortgages (or "Dot Com" crash) that nobody understood, 2026 has "Circular AI Revenue" deals. Ex: Microsoft gives money to OpenAI, who gives it back to Microsoft for Azure credits, which Microsoft then reports as "AI Growth".
Microsoft and Nvidia fund AI startups that buy their own tech back to report "growth." With $600b burning in data centers in 2026 alone but no real revenue to back it up.
If that loop snaps, the "fuck up" will be massive.
@nixCraft Looking forward to the
snap, crackle, and popwhen the AI bubble band collapse in on its own weight. -
Just like 2008 had "Subprime Mortgages (or "Dot Com" crash) that nobody understood, 2026 has "Circular AI Revenue" deals. Ex: Microsoft gives money to OpenAI, who gives it back to Microsoft for Azure credits, which Microsoft then reports as "AI Growth".
Microsoft and Nvidia fund AI startups that buy their own tech back to report "growth." With $600b burning in data centers in 2026 alone but no real revenue to back it up.
If that loop snaps, the "fuck up" will be massive.
@nixCraft nah, this perpetual economic motion machine is gonna go to the moon forever
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it is going to snap one way or other. that is all i'm saying.
@nixCraft You're not wrong buddy. All economic data of situations that have developed like this points to an inevitable crash. Right now, its in the crackle phase. Things will then begin to snap, and then things will pop. Just like Rice Crispies, although, not exactly in the same order as Rice Crispies, LOL. The key is to be smart by diversifying, and remaining calm. Its the panic buying and firesales that bring down economies.
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@pseudonym @nixCraft I would just look at any other Ponzi scheme.
Not exactly.
Ponzi needs new suckers to buy out the previous generation. There is still a "holding the bag" when it stops problem.
But this one is circular. The same parties keep playing, due to the way the funds are accounted for.
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R relay@relay.an.exchange shared this topic
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Just like 2008 had "Subprime Mortgages (or "Dot Com" crash) that nobody understood, 2026 has "Circular AI Revenue" deals. Ex: Microsoft gives money to OpenAI, who gives it back to Microsoft for Azure credits, which Microsoft then reports as "AI Growth".
Microsoft and Nvidia fund AI startups that buy their own tech back to report "growth." With $600b burning in data centers in 2026 alone but no real revenue to back it up.
If that loop snaps, the "fuck up" will be massive.
@nixCraft Give me a 24 hour notice please!
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@nixCraft You're not wrong buddy. All economic data of situations that have developed like this points to an inevitable crash. Right now, its in the crackle phase. Things will then begin to snap, and then things will pop. Just like Rice Crispies, although, not exactly in the same order as Rice Crispies, LOL. The key is to be smart by diversifying, and remaining calm. Its the panic buying and firesales that bring down economies.
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@pseudonym @sraars @nixCraft more like a combination of game of chairs and Russian roulette. Pass the grenade?
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Multi billion dollar game of "hot potato" or musical chairs.
Who is holding the debt when the music stops and they can't pass it on?
@pseudonym @nixCraft Big banks will get bailed out (too big to fail), while all of us with our retirement in 401k/small investments will get shafted per usual.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
America!
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R relay@relay.publicsquare.global shared this topic
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Just like 2008 had "Subprime Mortgages (or "Dot Com" crash) that nobody understood, 2026 has "Circular AI Revenue" deals. Ex: Microsoft gives money to OpenAI, who gives it back to Microsoft for Azure credits, which Microsoft then reports as "AI Growth".
Microsoft and Nvidia fund AI startups that buy their own tech back to report "growth." With $600b burning in data centers in 2026 alone but no real revenue to back it up.
If that loop snaps, the "fuck up" will be massive.
@nixCraft “If”?
More like *when* it snaps. -
Multi billion dollar game of "hot potato" or musical chairs.
Who is holding the debt when the music stops and they can't pass it on?
@pseudonym @nixCraft oh don't worry, it's gonna be the CEOs and people who cooked it all up, I'm sure. No way that the general public is going to bail them out.
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Just like 2008 had "Subprime Mortgages (or "Dot Com" crash) that nobody understood, 2026 has "Circular AI Revenue" deals. Ex: Microsoft gives money to OpenAI, who gives it back to Microsoft for Azure credits, which Microsoft then reports as "AI Growth".
Microsoft and Nvidia fund AI startups that buy their own tech back to report "growth." With $600b burning in data centers in 2026 alone but no real revenue to back it up.
If that loop snaps, the "fuck up" will be massive.
@nixCraft oh, no worries, 2026 also has its own version of subprime loans, they're just called private credit now, but it's the same thing.
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it is going to snap one way or other. that is all i'm saying.
@nixCraft they can only give away free hardware for so long
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Just like 2008 had "Subprime Mortgages (or "Dot Com" crash) that nobody understood, 2026 has "Circular AI Revenue" deals. Ex: Microsoft gives money to OpenAI, who gives it back to Microsoft for Azure credits, which Microsoft then reports as "AI Growth".
Microsoft and Nvidia fund AI startups that buy their own tech back to report "growth." With $600b burning in data centers in 2026 alone but no real revenue to back it up.
If that loop snaps, the "fuck up" will be massive.
@nixCraft
I call it the circlejerk economy -
Just like 2008 had "Subprime Mortgages (or "Dot Com" crash) that nobody understood, 2026 has "Circular AI Revenue" deals. Ex: Microsoft gives money to OpenAI, who gives it back to Microsoft for Azure credits, which Microsoft then reports as "AI Growth".
Microsoft and Nvidia fund AI startups that buy their own tech back to report "growth." With $600b burning in data centers in 2026 alone but no real revenue to back it up.
If that loop snaps, the "fuck up" will be massive.
@nixCraft what's gonna snap tho? The difference is that most AI spend right now comes from piles of cash big tech has, not debt.
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Just like 2008 had "Subprime Mortgages (or "Dot Com" crash) that nobody understood, 2026 has "Circular AI Revenue" deals. Ex: Microsoft gives money to OpenAI, who gives it back to Microsoft for Azure credits, which Microsoft then reports as "AI Growth".
Microsoft and Nvidia fund AI startups that buy their own tech back to report "growth." With $600b burning in data centers in 2026 alone but no real revenue to back it up.
If that loop snaps, the "fuck up" will be massive.
@nixCraft * when
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Just like 2008 had "Subprime Mortgages (or "Dot Com" crash) that nobody understood, 2026 has "Circular AI Revenue" deals. Ex: Microsoft gives money to OpenAI, who gives it back to Microsoft for Azure credits, which Microsoft then reports as "AI Growth".
Microsoft and Nvidia fund AI startups that buy their own tech back to report "growth." With $600b burning in data centers in 2026 alone but no real revenue to back it up.
If that loop snaps, the "fuck up" will be massive.
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Just like 2008 had "Subprime Mortgages (or "Dot Com" crash) that nobody understood, 2026 has "Circular AI Revenue" deals. Ex: Microsoft gives money to OpenAI, who gives it back to Microsoft for Azure credits, which Microsoft then reports as "AI Growth".
Microsoft and Nvidia fund AI startups that buy their own tech back to report "growth." With $600b burning in data centers in 2026 alone but no real revenue to back it up.
If that loop snaps, the "fuck up" will be massive.
@nixCraft Sometimes called “cheque kiting”. Write a cheque on Bank A, payable to your business. Deposit in Bank B. Next day, before the cheque has cleared inter-bank processing, write a cheque on Bank B for a like amount, deposit it in Bank C. Repeat with a cheque from Bank C to Bank A. Make the shuffle longer, you may be able to withdraw cash or pay third parties with funds that don’t exist. When a Bank finally catches on, apologize and say you will look into it.
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Just like 2008 had "Subprime Mortgages (or "Dot Com" crash) that nobody understood, 2026 has "Circular AI Revenue" deals. Ex: Microsoft gives money to OpenAI, who gives it back to Microsoft for Azure credits, which Microsoft then reports as "AI Growth".
Microsoft and Nvidia fund AI startups that buy their own tech back to report "growth." With $600b burning in data centers in 2026 alone but no real revenue to back it up.
If that loop snaps, the "fuck up" will be massive.
@nixCraft love to read more about that 600 billion number you shared!
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Just like 2008 had "Subprime Mortgages (or "Dot Com" crash) that nobody understood, 2026 has "Circular AI Revenue" deals. Ex: Microsoft gives money to OpenAI, who gives it back to Microsoft for Azure credits, which Microsoft then reports as "AI Growth".
Microsoft and Nvidia fund AI startups that buy their own tech back to report "growth." With $600b burning in data centers in 2026 alone but no real revenue to back it up.
If that loop snaps, the "fuck up" will be massive.
@nixCraft
It's all explained quite simply here:
