i'm making some assumptions drawn from my own life, but i experienced a lot of bullying as a kid and i wonder if this isn't common among people with neurodivergence. that might leave someone predisposed to judge outcomes (even if not consciously).
as a kid it was hard for me to tell if someone was being sincere or lying to get me into an unsafe situation. others with similar experiences might focus more on making up their own mind and evaluating what they think will happen as a survival strategy.