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@jschauma
If you zoom in on the period Jan 2009 to Dec 2012
you will see that tunnelled IPv6 (e.g. 6to4/Teredo) peaked and then became negligible as a proportion of overall IPv6 traffic during 2012, which was the year total IPv6 adoption reached 1% in December.
That era was the start of IPv6 proper, no more than 15 years ago.
On everything else I agree you have a point.
@jschauma
Further, there is no particular reason to assert that "Pareto principle" must apply to this. A cumulative distribution S-curve would fit the graphed data even if the inflection point ends up being closer to 40% than 50%.
It does not matter if we only get to 80-90% adoption in 15 more years as islands of IPv4 were always expected to hang around in a long tail rather than "turn off IPv4 after x years".
Early IPv6 was tunnelled over v4 and the tail can be the reverse of this.
@jschauma
Some valid points in the thread
But this and the blog article omits to mention that a general agreement to actually start a public roll out of IPv6 worldwide only happened in June 2012, as opposed to the year it was first designed.
(There was a test of that idea in 2011, whereas 2012 was the year of "ok turn it on but leave it on this time").
So "30 years" doesn't really apply here. The adoption curve reflects this.
