CIRCLE WITH A DOT

@mavori Ja, November 2024. Es lungerte in Südafrika herum, sprang auf Perth über letzten Sommer, dann auf Europa gegen Ende letztes Jahr.

@mavori Auch lustig: BA.3.2 wird schon seit mehr als einem Jahr mit Spannung verfolgt. Jetzt plötzlich, wo es in den USA Fuss fasst, hunderte seichte Artikel auch in Europa.

#BA.3.2

What I find annoying: We have the imbecilic "these are the new symptoms of the new variant" clickbait and simultaneously the calm-mongering "no evidence for any change in severity" - while, for the first time since the advent of Omicron, there are clear indications for a change in phenotype.

Maybe not: Comparing case-based incidence and hospitalisation incidence, there is no discernible shift! One might have expected one when assuming higher virulence. However, likelihood to appear in case reporting and hosp. incidence might similarly rise with higher virulence. But is that likely?

This in itself is astounding, given how incidences among the elderly have fallen.

Is this pointing to higher virulence in these age groups?

BA.3.2 and children, a look at German hospitalisation incidences (https://github.com/robert-koch-institut/COVID-19-Hospitalisierungen_in_Deutschland/blob/main/%5BDokumentation%5D_COVID-19-Hospitalisierungen_in_Deutschland.pdf

At high BA.3.2 fraction, the 0-4 age group had higher hospitalisation incidences than the 60-79.

The 5-14 age group had highest hospitalisation incidences since October 2022.

Dominik Steiger (@dominiksteiger@swiss.social)

Attached: 2 images Here a non-stacked figure (left), and a look at ratios between 0-4 and 80+ as well as 5-14 and 80+ (right). The suspected BA.3.2 signal is also in the 5-14. I have no explanation for the high 0-4 / 80+ ratio in the low absolute incidence period preceding the wave. Differential testing intensity?

swiss.social (swiss.social)