None of the "code generation" stuff is new by the way.
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The gist of this is that _even if code-generating LLMs work perfectly_, it doesn't have that much of an impact on how good the software works for people; which in turn means it won't matter for profits.
@thomasfuchs As if "how good the software works for people" has anything to do with profits.
The prospect of saving 9% of that 10% software work is worth millions in profit for managers.
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None of the "code generation" stuff is new by the way.
The tech industry has tried to speed up coding and increase software output for the last 3 to 4 decades, by various means; e.g. Rapid Application Development, Expert Systems, Object-Oriented Programming, thousands of different frameworks all the way to trying to off-shore development and exploit third-world labor.
The problem with this is: there is no software scarcity. Pretending that "we can't make software fast enough" is a red herring to hide the fact that making (good) software is 90% painstaking research, design, planning, marketing and talking to and supporting customers.
And 10% writing the actual code—the C-suite is doing ye olde "trying to find a technical solution to a social problem".
@thomasfuchs and it's all bullshit.
No. All of it. It's all fucking bullshit.It's all "lines of code is the only metric." All of it, top to bottom. Because the same idiots have been refusing to listen to the same advice for decades. Lines of code can be "measured!" Quality can't, time wasted can't, unnecessary work can't, so just pretend those don't exist.
Lines of code has never been and will never fucking be anything resembling a valid metric.
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None of the "code generation" stuff is new by the way.
The tech industry has tried to speed up coding and increase software output for the last 3 to 4 decades, by various means; e.g. Rapid Application Development, Expert Systems, Object-Oriented Programming, thousands of different frameworks all the way to trying to off-shore development and exploit third-world labor.
The problem with this is: there is no software scarcity. Pretending that "we can't make software fast enough" is a red herring to hide the fact that making (good) software is 90% painstaking research, design, planning, marketing and talking to and supporting customers.
And 10% writing the actual code—the C-suite is doing ye olde "trying to find a technical solution to a social problem".
@thomasfuchs Even though I've not been in the industry for more than 35 years, I can well remember how people generally liked what I did because I gave the users what they wanted (whilst making management think that I had delivered what they wanted). One job I was in, I actually spent a lot of time sorting out the previous occupant's 'afternoon work' - he used to get into work early and work solidly till lunchtime, then have a liquid lunch, then be present in body for the afternoon. 1/2
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None of the "code generation" stuff is new by the way.
The tech industry has tried to speed up coding and increase software output for the last 3 to 4 decades, by various means; e.g. Rapid Application Development, Expert Systems, Object-Oriented Programming, thousands of different frameworks all the way to trying to off-shore development and exploit third-world labor.
The problem with this is: there is no software scarcity. Pretending that "we can't make software fast enough" is a red herring to hide the fact that making (good) software is 90% painstaking research, design, planning, marketing and talking to and supporting customers.
And 10% writing the actual code—the C-suite is doing ye olde "trying to find a technical solution to a social problem".
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@thomasfuchs Even though I've not been in the industry for more than 35 years, I can well remember how people generally liked what I did because I gave the users what they wanted (whilst making management think that I had delivered what they wanted). One job I was in, I actually spent a lot of time sorting out the previous occupant's 'afternoon work' - he used to get into work early and work solidly till lunchtime, then have a liquid lunch, then be present in body for the afternoon. 1/2
@thomasfuchs His morning work was brilliant, by the way, far better than I could do, but they had hired me because they eventually HAD to get rid of him.
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@thomasfuchs and it's all bullshit.
No. All of it. It's all fucking bullshit.It's all "lines of code is the only metric." All of it, top to bottom. Because the same idiots have been refusing to listen to the same advice for decades. Lines of code can be "measured!" Quality can't, time wasted can't, unnecessary work can't, so just pretend those don't exist.
Lines of code has never been and will never fucking be anything resembling a valid metric.
@thomasfuchs and the result is people screaming 'scarcity' when it's the exact opposite. How many different 'flashlight' apps can you get for your phone? It's in the hundreds if not thousands. There is no scarcity, only a dearth of useful or functional software.
The predictable result of decades of shoveling ever increasing amounts of shit into a barrel of wine, and continually asking why it hasn't turned into wine yet.
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None of the "code generation" stuff is new by the way.
The tech industry has tried to speed up coding and increase software output for the last 3 to 4 decades, by various means; e.g. Rapid Application Development, Expert Systems, Object-Oriented Programming, thousands of different frameworks all the way to trying to off-shore development and exploit third-world labor.
The problem with this is: there is no software scarcity. Pretending that "we can't make software fast enough" is a red herring to hide the fact that making (good) software is 90% painstaking research, design, planning, marketing and talking to and supporting customers.
And 10% writing the actual code—the C-suite is doing ye olde "trying to find a technical solution to a social problem".
Or not even trying to solve the right problem because no amount of old code, however refactored, will ensure you ask the right question.
Finding the right question is part of being alive, and caring.
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None of the "code generation" stuff is new by the way.
The tech industry has tried to speed up coding and increase software output for the last 3 to 4 decades, by various means; e.g. Rapid Application Development, Expert Systems, Object-Oriented Programming, thousands of different frameworks all the way to trying to off-shore development and exploit third-world labor.
The problem with this is: there is no software scarcity. Pretending that "we can't make software fast enough" is a red herring to hide the fact that making (good) software is 90% painstaking research, design, planning, marketing and talking to and supporting customers.
And 10% writing the actual code—the C-suite is doing ye olde "trying to find a technical solution to a social problem".
@thomasfuchs the irony is, the more plentiful that software becomes, the more the human role becomes exactly what you're describing. Even more than it already was...research, design, planning, talking to people. Before I'd fight uphill battles "selling" research and design to my old team. AI now makes it impossible to ignore
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None of the "code generation" stuff is new by the way.
The tech industry has tried to speed up coding and increase software output for the last 3 to 4 decades, by various means; e.g. Rapid Application Development, Expert Systems, Object-Oriented Programming, thousands of different frameworks all the way to trying to off-shore development and exploit third-world labor.
The problem with this is: there is no software scarcity. Pretending that "we can't make software fast enough" is a red herring to hide the fact that making (good) software is 90% painstaking research, design, planning, marketing and talking to and supporting customers.
And 10% writing the actual code—the C-suite is doing ye olde "trying to find a technical solution to a social problem".
@thomasfuchs I'm not disagreeing, but I don't think I got the intended meaning of "there is no software scarcity". I thought there was a lot of demand, which is why managers always jump on *anything* that promises more+cheaper, and often end up being essentially legally scammed one way or another. What did you mean by it?
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None of the "code generation" stuff is new by the way.
The tech industry has tried to speed up coding and increase software output for the last 3 to 4 decades, by various means; e.g. Rapid Application Development, Expert Systems, Object-Oriented Programming, thousands of different frameworks all the way to trying to off-shore development and exploit third-world labor.
The problem with this is: there is no software scarcity. Pretending that "we can't make software fast enough" is a red herring to hide the fact that making (good) software is 90% painstaking research, design, planning, marketing and talking to and supporting customers.
And 10% writing the actual code—the C-suite is doing ye olde "trying to find a technical solution to a social problem".
@thomasfuchs Well said. If anything we need a lot -less- code and more clever solutions.
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@thomasfuchs Well said. If anything we need a lot -less- code and more clever solutions.
@cupz code degeneration
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None of the "code generation" stuff is new by the way.
The tech industry has tried to speed up coding and increase software output for the last 3 to 4 decades, by various means; e.g. Rapid Application Development, Expert Systems, Object-Oriented Programming, thousands of different frameworks all the way to trying to off-shore development and exploit third-world labor.
The problem with this is: there is no software scarcity. Pretending that "we can't make software fast enough" is a red herring to hide the fact that making (good) software is 90% painstaking research, design, planning, marketing and talking to and supporting customers.
And 10% writing the actual code—the C-suite is doing ye olde "trying to find a technical solution to a social problem".
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@thomasfuchs I'm not disagreeing, but I don't think I got the intended meaning of "there is no software scarcity". I thought there was a lot of demand, which is why managers always jump on *anything* that promises more+cheaper, and often end up being essentially legally scammed one way or another. What did you mean by it?
@landelare Software isn’t a scarce resource (it’s very cheap to hire programmers for a long time)
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None of the "code generation" stuff is new by the way.
The tech industry has tried to speed up coding and increase software output for the last 3 to 4 decades, by various means; e.g. Rapid Application Development, Expert Systems, Object-Oriented Programming, thousands of different frameworks all the way to trying to off-shore development and exploit third-world labor.
The problem with this is: there is no software scarcity. Pretending that "we can't make software fast enough" is a red herring to hide the fact that making (good) software is 90% painstaking research, design, planning, marketing and talking to and supporting customers.
And 10% writing the actual code—the C-suite is doing ye olde "trying to find a technical solution to a social problem".
@thomasfuchs You left out the Autocoder. https://bitsavers.org/pdf/ibm/1410/C28-0309-1_1410_autocoder.pdf
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@thomasfuchs the irony is, the more plentiful that software becomes, the more the human role becomes exactly what you're describing. Even more than it already was...research, design, planning, talking to people. Before I'd fight uphill battles "selling" research and design to my old team. AI now makes it impossible to ignore
@jg This is a good argument—as a silver lining it may force programmers into systems thinking and learn about systems design instead of just blindly hacking on low-level stuff.
Otoh without knowing low-level stuff inside-out you can’t do higher level thinking properly.
I wonder how many programmers actually have the discipline to do this properly.
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@thomasfuchs You left out the Autocoder. https://bitsavers.org/pdf/ibm/1410/C28-0309-1_1410_autocoder.pdf
@riley now I want to listen to Kraftwerk
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None of the "code generation" stuff is new by the way.
The tech industry has tried to speed up coding and increase software output for the last 3 to 4 decades, by various means; e.g. Rapid Application Development, Expert Systems, Object-Oriented Programming, thousands of different frameworks all the way to trying to off-shore development and exploit third-world labor.
The problem with this is: there is no software scarcity. Pretending that "we can't make software fast enough" is a red herring to hide the fact that making (good) software is 90% painstaking research, design, planning, marketing and talking to and supporting customers.
And 10% writing the actual code—the C-suite is doing ye olde "trying to find a technical solution to a social problem".
@thomasfuchs This is a fantastic point. I've worked on teams that have been death marched to ship features only to find - wah wah - nobody cares about what we've built because no one understood what users actually wanted in the first place.
To paraphrase Mark Twain, what hurts software companies isn't the code that ships slow, it's the code they're sure they need to ship when that just ain't so.
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None of the "code generation" stuff is new by the way.
The tech industry has tried to speed up coding and increase software output for the last 3 to 4 decades, by various means; e.g. Rapid Application Development, Expert Systems, Object-Oriented Programming, thousands of different frameworks all the way to trying to off-shore development and exploit third-world labor.
The problem with this is: there is no software scarcity. Pretending that "we can't make software fast enough" is a red herring to hide the fact that making (good) software is 90% painstaking research, design, planning, marketing and talking to and supporting customers.
And 10% writing the actual code—the C-suite is doing ye olde "trying to find a technical solution to a social problem".
@thomasfuchs Yep. My career for the last several years has been based on “low code/no code.” Microsoft’s “citizen developers” push was a big deal right before LLMs took over.
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None of the "code generation" stuff is new by the way.
The tech industry has tried to speed up coding and increase software output for the last 3 to 4 decades, by various means; e.g. Rapid Application Development, Expert Systems, Object-Oriented Programming, thousands of different frameworks all the way to trying to off-shore development and exploit third-world labor.
The problem with this is: there is no software scarcity. Pretending that "we can't make software fast enough" is a red herring to hide the fact that making (good) software is 90% painstaking research, design, planning, marketing and talking to and supporting customers.
And 10% writing the actual code—the C-suite is doing ye olde "trying to find a technical solution to a social problem".
@thomasfuchs this is one of the things that pissed me off about the Paul Ford op-ed. Like, he wants software dev to be so easy that it takes no effort. But even if that were to be possible, the amount of shit that would be produced would be exponentially worse.
All these people think that making all the difficult things easy will automatically elevate everything, but that’s not really the main and foremost thing happening with AI and they’re turning a blind eye on so much bad stuff.
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@thomasfuchs Yep. My career for the last several years has been based on “low code/no code.” Microsoft’s “citizen developers” push was a big deal right before LLMs took over.
@maxleibman @thomasfuchs Why, just today I debugged a piece of "no-code".
By looking at the code, because clicking thru innumerable dialogs to find out what the no-code is doing isn't really an option.
They've had us for absolute fools
