Y’all, we need to talk about upcoming #IPOs, and the insane rule changes that #nasdaq has just announced.

[huntingdon@mstdn.social]

@MissConstrue

Elmo's SpaceX flotation should be the death of the NASDAQ stock index fund.

[shredder7579@mastodon.social]

@MissConstrue not looking for specific financial advice, but is there some way to rebalance a typical 401k or index fund to dodge being a bagholder for these companies or are we all "just kinda stuck"?

[missconstrue@mefi.social]

@shredder7579 Qualify: I’m not a financial advisor, but as I understand it, passive index is forced to buy shares in any stock listed in the 100.

That’s why changing the rules to allow a company that will be 95% privately held to be jammed into every index portfolio is a massive risk to the entire market.

Spacex ipo is coming in a valuation that exceed all other military contractors combined. A bigger cap that all of coke, Pepsi, frito, nestle, et al, combined.

The SpaceX IPO is expected to be the largest in history, with a targeted valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, placing it among the world’s top 10 most valuable companies by market cap. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX would rank 8th globally, surpassing companies like Meta, Tesla, and Broadcom, and exceeding Saudi Aramco’s $1.7 trillion IPO in 2019.

For a company valued at 1000x earnings. A company that has never made a profit. It’s bugfuck insane. It’s pure grift.

[slotos@toot.community]

@MissConstrue Casual Finance video on the topic was quite enlightening - https://youtube.com/watch?v=-X6YzlY_8tM

[unqualifiedtechbros@mastodon.social]

@MissConstrue
Who would have known the financialization of savings due to fiat being at an astoundingly high cost to laborers would be manipulated even more than it already is. This is an extension of the corrupted banking system being shoved down your throat. Opt out, buy a small farm or Ethereum or gold or a dog. Literally anything other than stocks.

[accordionbruce@mastodon.social]

@unqualifiedtechbros @MissConstrue
Yeah. Giving your money to an environmental group sounds like a better long-term financial investment than the stock market

[adampetrone@mastodon.gamedev.place]

@MissConstrue joke is on them, I am a milennial, retirement was never an option.

[htpcnz@mastodon.social]

@MissConstrue ok now once enough poor peoples money can be tied up in these scams and once more taxpayer money can be secured to bail out the scams... the crash everyone is rubbing their hands gleefully to come will be here... guess who will not be affected by it at all? the ones running the scams.

[cassandravert@indieweb.social]

That's definitely the downside of index funds--everyone knows what the fund has to buy before it buys.
Still better off with asset class funds even though S&P 500 is usually one of the asset classes.

[classwario@mastodon.social]

@MissConstrue If they want to be priced in to indexes in 15 days, versus just 90 (not that long in business world), doesn’t that make the 75 day window of money movement suspect? Actionable?

Like why rewrite rules for 75 days shorter unless the game is in that 75 days?

As everything tech is over over over leveraged, to Enron structure status, is the shoot the moon, no honor among thieves, cash grab the smart play for the chaos class? Even while it ends the game?

[quizzicus@mastodon.online]

@MissConstrue @shredder7579 Why would NASDAQ-100 rules affect funds benchmarked to other indices, though?

[classwario@mastodon.social]

@MissConstrue just fuel to speculative fire..

Musk filed space x ipo May 20. He lost decision to openAI/Altman on May 18.

If Musk is set on revenge, and if he can tie the entire market to an albatross (space x), by bending safeguards to forever bull expectation (maybe he really does believe that AI is an existential human threat, and his moral framework (like Bond villains) lines up), the push from tenuous to unsustainable for tech demand/supply loop/exposure would torpedo market.

[weekend_editor@mathstodon.xyz]

@CassandraVert

Some kinds of index funds; not all.

That's why I use a total market index fund which is allowed to sample based on float.

Also "tilt" index funds, specializing in small-cap value and international small, to get away from the Magnificent 7 that dominate US markets.

All index funds, just not subject to this kind of shenanigans.

Defending the Weekend Portfolio Even More

Trump continues to antagonize the world at large, and weaken America’s fiscal posture with destructive tax cuts. Some international leaders are threatening a sell-off in US Treasury bonds. Here’s our (small) defensive reaction in the Weekend Portfolio.

(www.someweekendreading.blog)

[cassandravert@indieweb.social]

Index funds buy stock in proportion to market cap. The larger companies are supposed to be established and stable, but clearly not here.
If I were a fund manager, I would keep the 3 month waiting period as a rule for my fund even if the index doesn't.

[cassandravert@indieweb.social]

That's good.

[jamesmdonohoe@sfba.social]

@MissConstrue
Article from Oct/2025 focused on S&P 500 but raising the same/additional concerns. Goes into a bit more detail that I found interesting and kinda alarming.

[1337@techhub.social]

@shredder7579 @MissConstrue my 401k allows me to allocate funds to a "capital preservation fund" (or something like that) that basically tries to stay flat. I.e. you would lose out in any gains elsewhere in the market, but not take losses (hopefully?). I doubt it's typically recommended, but it is an option. Any funds that track stuff like the SP 500 or Nasdaq 100 will have you indirectly allocating a significant proportion of your funds to all these companies heavily dependent on AI (these indexes are very top heavy, but they historically perform the best; likely because monopolies are more profitable).

[troy_frizzell@mstdn.social]

@MissConstrue

I think one of the USAs most important but unspoken problems is the entire Financial industry. There’s nothing there that adds actual value for everyday people.

I’d be perfectly fine with that entire system burning to the ground and never being rebuilt. It’s a creation of, by, and for the lazy rich. It doesn’t help anyone who isn’t rich.

Wreck it all.

[chuckmcmanis@chaos.social]

@MissConstrue My expectation is that this is going to backfire on them in spectacular fashion. Specifically, when these "early entries" re-price once the market understands them (usually 90 - 180 days after entry) if they are as weak as they seem, they are going to take the indexes down double digit percentages. That will confuse the rubes who conflate the market with the economy and now both signals the market and inflation will say the economy is bad. Not good for anyone in elected office.

[guillotine_jones@beige.party]

@MissConstrue @shredder7579
"For a company valued at 1000x earnings. [Musk's SpaceX is] A company that has never made a profit. It’s bugfuck insane. It’s pure grift."
In other words, Capitalism2026.