I see a lot of “vibes” about it, but has a real nonpartisan data scientist analyzed by key swing states what the SAVE act may do to the midterms?
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I see a lot of “vibes” about it, but has a real nonpartisan data scientist analyzed by key swing states what the SAVE act may do to the midterms? Taking into account passports per capita, voter registration, married women voters, disposable income to get a passport, and postal delays?
I haven't seen anything yet, but it still worries me.
My passport is expired (working on fixing that) and when they talked about this last year, I made a trip to the county records office to get a copy of my marriage certificate to go with my birth certificate to document the name change. I'm lucky I still live in the area I got married in and it wasn't prohibitively expensive.
Will it be enough if this shit goes through? No idea.
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It’s a concerningly complicated math problem for everyone. And people are failing to take into account the weaponized incompetence and lack of staffing installed in the post office and state department which could effectively prevent many new applications from getting a passport by October.
Hell, when I was leaving the county, I had to go to four post offices because the fingerprint reader was broken at three just for a police check.
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Like, I get the “feels” about more left leaning voters having passports, or being able to afford rush processing in an understaffed state department, or that less democratic women change their surname but, left leaning districts are already discrete in the obvious figures. We care about swings.
@hacks4pancakes is it wrong that I feel the appropriate response to this at the state level would be to prioritize the areas of higher population density for enhanced ID assistance?
Of course I've also mentally entertained a theoretical Illinois "we're doing it to save money" response to things like Georgia's 'black belt' voter ID moves. Things like "we're only going to have a few voting locations per House district." Sure some people in southern Illinois would have to go a few counties over to vote, but think of all the money the state could save!
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Hell, when I was leaving the county, I had to go to four post offices because the fingerprint reader was broken at three just for a police check.
I can’t help thinking about the brave black women who have bailed out Georgia on multiple occasions, and wonder how many of them will face local barriers now getting those documents…
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It’s a concerningly complicated math problem for everyone. And people are failing to take into account the weaponized incompetence and lack of staffing installed in the post office and state department which could effectively prevent many new applications from getting a passport by October.
@hacks4pancakes The trick is that it's going to be selectively enforced.
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I can’t help thinking about the brave black women who have bailed out Georgia on multiple occasions, and wonder how many of them will face local barriers now getting those documents…
I’m so deeply uncomfortable with the rosy Threads view that this poll tax travesty will actually help voters like me. They’ve all forgotten it will mean flying 26 hours each direction for me to vote - and also that my vote in a firm affluent blue district doesn’t matter a ton federally. I want Pennsylvania and Ohio numbers.
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I see a lot of “vibes” about it, but has a real nonpartisan data scientist analyzed by key swing states what the SAVE act may do to the midterms? Taking into account passports per capita, voter registration, married women voters, disposable income to get a passport, and postal delays?
@hacks4pancakes it is pay to vote.
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@hacks4pancakes The trick is that it's going to be selectively enforced.
@JessTheUnstill certainly
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I can’t help thinking about the brave black women who have bailed out Georgia on multiple occasions, and wonder how many of them will face local barriers now getting those documents…
@hacks4pancakes I put this site together. https://dontboo.vote we all need to do everything in our power to make sure that they don’t get away with this.
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@hacks4pancakes is it wrong that I feel the appropriate response to this at the state level would be to prioritize the areas of higher population density for enhanced ID assistance?
Of course I've also mentally entertained a theoretical Illinois "we're doing it to save money" response to things like Georgia's 'black belt' voter ID moves. Things like "we're only going to have a few voting locations per House district." Sure some people in southern Illinois would have to go a few counties over to vote, but think of all the money the state could save!
@fencepost @hacks4pancakes I think that’s a great idea. Use a couple (meaning two) polling places per state. Make sure they have great public transportation access since this is a public polling place. I’m sure car owners who live hundreds of miles away will find a way to make it. Just make sure to bring a passport, because a drivers license is not proof of citizenship.
While we’re at it, we can save a lot of money by letting the black panthers handle security. I’m sure some volunteer good guys with guns are much cheaper than police officers. Of course the polling place is otherwise gun-free.
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R relay@relay.an.exchange shared this topic
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I can’t help thinking about the brave black women who have bailed out Georgia on multiple occasions, and wonder how many of them will face local barriers now getting those documents…
State Department orders nonprofit libraries to stop processing passport applications
The State Department has ordered nonprofit public libraries to stop taking passport applications, cutting off a popular local service.
AP News (apnews.com)
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It’s a concerningly complicated math problem for everyone. And people are failing to take into account the weaponized incompetence and lack of staffing installed in the post office and state department which could effectively prevent many new applications from getting a passport by October.
@hacks4pancakes in some places libraries have been making it easier to get passports.
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I’m so deeply uncomfortable with the rosy Threads view that this poll tax travesty will actually help voters like me. They’ve all forgotten it will mean flying 26 hours each direction for me to vote - and also that my vote in a firm affluent blue district doesn’t matter a ton federally. I want Pennsylvania and Ohio numbers.
@hacks4pancakes no joke this is a bad bad direction to go. Scary as shit.
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I see a lot of “vibes” about it, but has a real nonpartisan data scientist analyzed by key swing states what the SAVE act may do to the midterms? Taking into account passports per capita, voter registration, married women voters, disposable income to get a passport, and postal delays?
@hacks4pancakes Isnt there an alternative to passport in SAVE act? Wont SSN or DL work?
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I’m so deeply uncomfortable with the rosy Threads view that this poll tax travesty will actually help voters like me. They’ve all forgotten it will mean flying 26 hours each direction for me to vote - and also that my vote in a firm affluent blue district doesn’t matter a ton federally. I want Pennsylvania and Ohio numbers.
@hacks4pancakes I really struggle with US "liberals". They see themselves as lefties, but they don't get how things work beyond the middle-class.
The poor, the disenfranchised, will be pushed further to the margins, all while what seems to be the "left" in the US cheers on their further disenfranchisement.
Even if every leftie "comes home", what's to stop border protection forces from detaining you? They almost don't get where on the "1930's-40's timeline" they are
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@hacks4pancakes Isnt there an alternative to passport in SAVE act? Wont SSN or DL work?
No. They even specified that REAL ID isn't good enough. The alternative to the passport, from what I understand, is the Birth Certificate which needs to match the exact name of your ID. Which is the whole problem from the beginning.
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@Taco_lad @hacks4pancakes it's definitely got the stench of that, especially when brownshirts are running rampant
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No. They even specified that REAL ID isn't good enough. The alternative to the passport, from what I understand, is the Birth Certificate which needs to match the exact name of your ID. Which is the whole problem from the beginning.
@rhebe @welkin7 @hacks4pancakes
The further problem is that the government can seize or revoke your passport for all sorts of ressons. Common reasons include being behind on taxes or child support, court orders to prevent travel by defendants awaiting trial, ICE or CBP officials whenever they feel like it, or for vague "national security reasons." I'd bet money that the Trump regime eventually starts revoking passports from people that protest ICE and other undesirables that they add to their domestic terror watch lists, possibly in conjunction with NSPM-7.
I'd welcome correction from more knowledgeable people, but I believe appeals can take years, and the legal principles of exhaustion leave you stuck waiting on the executive branch opaque processes before you can seek relief from the courts. This would make it a fairly effective way to engage in voter suppression against political enemies and undesirables.
The good news is that the SAVE Act is likely dead on arrival in the Senate. I don't think Thune is going to nuke the filibuster for this. I've been wrong before, though.
The bad news is that I'd bet individual GOP controlled states end up passing their own legislation that matches the SAVE Act's intent.
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R relay@relay.infosec.exchange shared this topic
