Link list: Articles and other links of interest
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@danielmunoz Politically, this is more to keep Bibi out of jail than to distract from Epstein. (The first US mistake was the B-2 attack last year, which gave the Israelis the ability to commit the US to a conflict with Iran.)
Fertilizer, fuel, and spares are will be short or unavailable for the northern hemisphere spring planting season. Throw in consequent disruptions on top of existing food insecurity and 1848-but-more is possible.
@graydon @danielmunoz @cstross @mitch @lasagne @pluralistic
Diesel is already in short supply for South Africa's Winter grain sowing. Buckle up. -
@cstross There are four ways out of this.
1. everyone in power in Iran and the US agrees that peace is more important than their personal futures, and make peace.
2. the US genocides Iran to the point there cannot be an Iranian industrial economy; the Strait opens as a victory for maritime power and freedom of navigation. (Takes years or nukes.)
3. The US undergoes collapse/gives up; Iran taxes tanker traffic.
4. Famine-driven new world order.@graydon @mitch @lasagne @pluralistic Your options 2-4 look like a mix-and-match bundle to me. Option 1 is the least likely, given the way the west's power structures have doubled down on repression since 2008.
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@mitch They're all possible.
It's not a question of TACO; it's a question of the maritime order, American power as the Oil Empire, and the degree to which some combination of industrial capacity and existing stockpiles permit them to exercise military power despite what is shaping up to be a major economic constriction.
Plus two generations of American elite consensus about an appropriate fate for the Islamic Republic.
@graydon @mitch @lasagne @pluralistic Yup. Trump is a symptom not a cause, much as Louis XVI was a symptom, not a cause (of the decay of the French monarchy leading to the point of fiscal crisis and revolution).
