OK I'm depressed and anxious so let's talk about some game theory: under no circumstances should *ANYONE* in 2026 admit that they would vote for Gavin Newsom for president.

[aud@fire.asta.lgbt]

@glyph@mastodon.social @xgranade@wandering.shop Newsom is a guaranteed loss. The guy has the charisma and moral integrity of beige wallpaper that's been infested with mold. If they push him as the nominee, they're totally fucked, and I'm pretty sure the only way they're going to figure that out is if we make it REALLY CLEAR if we're not going to vote for Newsom under any circumstances. Or, at the very least, not openly proclaim he'll get our vote.

[xgranade@wandering.shop]

@dave @aud I mean, to @glyph's characterization of Type A and Type B voters, it depends a little on whether we're talking about primaries or the general — in the primaries, blue no matter who is downright incoherent, while in the general, it's wrong but defensible?

[aud@fire.asta.lgbt]

@dave@alvarado.social @glyph@mastodon.social @xgranade@wandering.shop right? I don't get the impression there's as many reliable personality cult true believer types in the dem base as there are for ol trumpety dumpety, either, so it's hardly a reliable base to pull from.

[aud@fire.asta.lgbt]

@xgranade@wandering.shop @glyph@mastodon.social @dave@alvarado.social I feel like the "vote blue no matter who" card is one you can only logically play after the primaries. But of course, with Mamdani, suddenly no one played that card after the primaries...

[xgranade@wandering.shop]

@aud @glyph @dave Yeah, it's downright *curious* to look at when that card is and isn't played, isn't it?

[7leaguebootdisk@mindly.social]

@glyph Until a year and a half ago, I'd have grudgingly voted for him. But not now, his fascist turn has destroyed any tolerance I had for my former mayor.

[dave@alvarado.social]

@xgranade @aud @glyph ngl, I'm very strongly on the fence at this point. "Blue no matter who" got us Genocide Joe, then we got Trump again anyway. I'm not at all convinced it's a valid strategy in the general anymore either. It seems to be rewarding Winter Palette Fascism.

[ohmu@social.seattle.wa.us]

@glyph
I'm basically Type A and this reasoning is sound.

So here it is:
I will not vote for Gavin Newsome.

[xgranade@wandering.shop]

@dave @aud @glyph I don't think it's a valid strategy, no. Like I said, I think it's wrong but defensible. That is, wrong to a degree that I'm still willing to have a conversation about it, rather than "we don't share a reality" wrong or "not even wrong" wrong.

[glyph@mastodon.social]

@7leaguebootdisk forgetting about our personal opinions for the moment, if we are just talking about focus groups and polling, what normal people think: he lost the 2028 general at the French Laundry in 2020. Kimberly Guilfoyle's ex-husband is never going to motivate the nationwide Democratic base.

[victimofsimony@infosec.exchange]

@aud
@glyph
@xgranade

Maybe it should be "vote black no matter who" instead?

[aud@fire.asta.lgbt]

@dave@alvarado.social @xgranade@wandering.shop @glyph@mastodon.social AGREED. And I think they need to realize that isn't such an ironclad strategy for voters, honestly. It's gotten us here: a bunch of "winter palette fascist" candidates (THAT'S SUCH A GOOD TERM) because they were consistently the lesser of two evils... and a TON of lost elections with massive consequences while we get the full fat no skim fascists in charge.

Their "safe" candidates are increasingly right wing shitheads and they feel safe to run them because they assume the base is solid. The "base" is not solid: we keep giving them votes and money and they piss it away on increasingly regressive candidates (just less regressive than the other side).

They can see how wildly popular people like Mamdani are; they know it's a winning strategy for the people and the party... just not a winning strategy for them, I suspect.

[glyph@mastodon.social]

@ohmu sometimes posting stuff like this feels like either screaming into an uncaring void or agreeing with people who are also not really able to change much. So knowing it actually convinced someone, even just one person, is actually a huge relief, thanks for saying so.

[dave@alvarado.social]

@xgranade @aud @glyph yeah I hear you, which is why I'm on the fence. I voted for Obama twice, I got gitmo still open and more deportations than W did. I voted for Hillary. God help me, I voted for Genocide Joe. I voted for Kamala, knowing she was a loser.

I stand by my statement, a vote in the US is full-throated support of everything that candidate does. I'm getting tired of full-throated supporting fascism lite instead of giving the party I want to see change a swift kick in the ass.

[glyph@mastodon.social]

@aud @xgranade @dave most popular elected democrat in the country and AFAIK his numbers just keep going up https://www.newsweek.com/zohran-mamdanis-popularity-hits-new-highpoll-11461031

[aud@fire.asta.lgbt]

@dave@alvarado.social @glyph@mastodon.social @xgranade@wandering.shop I could have written this exact post and have thought all these things so many times. I am still so pissed about Gitmo.

[xgranade@wandering.shop]

@aud @glyph @dave I think it's the SCOTUS where I feel the most betrayed, personally. We've known since at *least* 2000 that the court has a severe legitimacy crisis, but the institutionalist Democrats whose whole supposed thing is caring about institutions just did... fucking nothing.

[glyph@mastodon.social]

@aud @xgranade @dave I care a lot less about vindicating my personal feelings than I do about actually winning, but this is the argument the moderates make: you gotta moderate if you want to win. you have to split the difference. you can't argue too stridently for anything. don't have values.

it would be bad enough to follow this logic if it were correct, but it's *wrong*. we keep doing the experiment! "tacking to the center" gets you zero conservatives and loses you progressives.

[dave@alvarado.social]

@xgranade @aud @glyph the fence I'm sitting on is whether it's more harmful to do this faster/slower fascism slide, or to live with four years of godawful after showing team D they have *zero* support for their current trajectory.

Like, we got Trump a second time. I kinda wish Joe had gotten single-digit percent of the vote and the Democratic leadership had spent four years in stunned self-reflection. Instead we get fucking Gavin Newsom making a run.

[glyph@mastodon.social]

@xgranade @aud @dave their fundamental, ongoing error was anthropomorphizing republicans