It’s really impressed the number of people and organisations that are repeatedly and consistently wrong keep getting their views repeated as if they’re infallible geniuses.

[david_chisnall@infosec.exchange]

It’s really impressed the number of people and organisations that are repeatedly and consistently wrong keep getting their views repeated as if they’re infallible geniuses.

Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Gartner, and so on are just laughably uninformed about most of the things that they talk about. You can do pretty well betting against whatever they get excited by.

I’m not right all the time, but if my track record for prediction was as bad as these folks I’d refrain from making any statement about the future more precise than ‘tomorrow will probably be’.

[chrisdenton@hachyderm.io]

@david_chisnall I don't think they ever intend to make accurate predictions of the future. Their job is to sell a story to investors. Whether it's true or not is immaterial so long as they can keep selling new stories once the old ones have run their course.

[spzb@infosec.exchange]

@david_chisnall I think the key is to keep the timescale for your predictions marginally longer than each wave of hype. By the time you've been proved wrong the world has already moved on to the next "big thing" and nobody cares about your previous prediction.