I've spent yesterday and today talking to researchers across the globe trying to understand the hantavirus outbreak aboard the cruise ship MV Hondius.

[kakape@mas.to]

2) While you may think: A cruise ship. Again! Of course!
This outbreak is really unusual in that hantaviruses generally do not transmit from human to human and an outbreak has never been reported on a ship. That's why the big question here is still: Was there human-to-human transmission?

[kakape@mas.to]

Researchers have only documented human-to-human spread for one hantavirus: Andes virus. The assumption has been that that is likely the culprit here, but we're waiting for confirmation from viral sequencing being done in South Africa (though I've heard from reliable sources it is indeed Andes virus)

[kakape@mas.to]

It's important to note that even Andes virus has only been shown to spread human-to-human in a few cases with close contact. (In fact, some researchers aren't really satisfied with those either.) So important to keep an open mind. In theory, the cases could all have been infected another way.

[kakape@mas.to]

But, given everything we know, human-to-human spread certainly seems a likely scenario. And as @marionkoopmans told me: If there is one place where a virus that is not very transmissible, might be able to spread, it's probably a cruise ship.

[kakape@mas.to]

I think this is really important: People often seem to assume a pathogen can either spread efficiently or not, like some on/off switch. But that's not really how it works. Many pathogens are shitty at spreading except under certain circumstances. This may turn out to be a case of such circumstances.

[kakape@mas.to]

3) This is not the start of a pandemic.
I get it. There is something irresistibly cinematic about mysterious deaths on a cruise ship in the middle of the Atlantic. But in reality this is just a terrifying experience for almost 150 people who went on a cruise and, it looks like, got very unlucky.

[kakape@mas.to]

There will be a lot more to find out and write about in the coming days. And, honestly, I look forward to that. Hantavirus infections are fascinating and frightening and we have so much still to learn about them.

[kakape@mas.to]

And if you find any of this helpful do spread the article and/or thread. Because I have seen a ton of nonsense already about this outbreak.

[fataqe@mas.to]

@kakape Sounds like a brilliant new @pandemia episode

[elsimms@ecoevo.social]

@kakape This is an excellent example of how nations can cooperate to save lives threatened by infectious diseases.

[mnspy@mastodon.online]

@kakape @marionkoopmans

I will be interested to see what the outbreak investigation reveals. Were the infected individuals clustered together in nearby cabins? Were those infected in rooms with shared ventilation systems?

My suspicion is the investigation will document a significant rodent infestation on the ship and all those infected were exposed to rodent feces (perhaps contaminating the ventilation system of the boat.)

Looking forward to hearing more.

[nilajones@zeroes.ca]

@FediThing @kakape

That's 40% of people -who are tested for hantavirus- and return positive

There may be many thousands of people with milder symptoms, who are never tested

(And there are certainly people who die from it without their docs thinking to test, as almost happened with the first case in this story)

New viruses often seem to have awful fatality rates because most cases are never tested. Covid, for example, and bird flu

Maybe they really are as fatal as they look, maybe not

I wonder if everyone on that ship is positive. But does the world have enough reagents to test them all?

[holgerschurig@social.tchncs.de]

@kakape

"Tracing contacts of people" .. are you sure that this is happening? I just read the german wikipedia page on "Hanta-Virus" and there it says the Human-to-Human transfer is unlikely.

It's actually so unlikely that one one human-to-human transfer of the disease was ever documented! South-Africa, 1996.

Do officials really react under such circumstances?

[argentum@mas.to]

@kakape is it known how the woman was returning to the Netherlands once she got off the cruise? Or how do they know it’s not likely to spread further or become a pandemic? (Thinking about those 8 weeks the virus needs)

[nomdeb@mstdn.social]

@kakape The first I had even heard of hantavirus was the Gene Hackman and his wife tragedy. I particularly note your point about certain environments are more conducive to spread. Off on a tangent, it's why I'm careful in enclosed spaces with strangers and wear a mask still.

[retrosponge@kind.social]

@kakape That was an absolutely fascinating read. I'm fascinated by virology and stuff like that and that was really interesting.

[kimlockhartga@beige.party]

@kakape This is very concerning. I had thought that hantavirus was concentrated mainly in the Desert Southwest. But, on a cruise ship? And contagious? That seems to break the rules of how the virus behaves, unless it has evolved.

[deborahh@cosocial.ca]

@kakape @ShaulaEvans thanks very much for your update.

[kleines_z@queer.group]

@kimlockhartga @kakape
The article explains that there are many different hantaviruses and there is a type that is known for person to person infections. But only through close contact.
So I guess hantaviruses have been mutating and evolving all the time, since there are so many different kinds.

[grammargirl@zirk.us]

@kakape Thanks for the great overview.