we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
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@davidgerard cheap Chinese replacement AI will probably be a thing. Not sure if that's the stupidest and shortest-term thing to do, but if you can't afford /access the AI you built something with, you need a substitute.
@audunmb @davidgerard My understanding is probably crap, but don't coding models need to be not heavily quantised? Essentially, fairly memory heavy, while the cost to run is hardware plus electricity? So, unless china is able to innovate much harder, or get much cheaper electricity, I'm not sure how they'd cost less - wage arbitrage doesn't really factor into this one...
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@aaribaud @davidgerard @audunmb @tante : « eating your own shit is never healthy »
https://ploum.net/2022-12-05-drowning-in-ai-generated-garbage.html (written in 2022)
@ploum @aaribaud @audunmb @tante see yesterday's Pivot, model collapse seems to be visibly hitting ChatGPT https://pivot-to-ai.com/2026/05/06/openai-chatgpt-goes-goblin-mode-let-none-say-model-collapse/
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@davidgerard cheap Chinese replacement AI will probably be a thing. Not sure if that's the stupidest and shortest-term thing to do, but if you can't afford /access the AI you built something with, you need a substitute.
@audunmb @davidgerard Nope. I mean, people will use Deepseek and Qwen and stuff, but they already are.
The future is a co. fine tuning a small-ish CodeGemma or such on their codebase, and making that available to employees.
It's the "good enough" policy, followed by a "no, your request for an expensive Claude subscription is denied, it's too expensive and the internal model we've made available is good enough, now get out of my office."
That's the future, and should've been the present.
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@audunmb @davidgerard My understanding is probably crap, but don't coding models need to be not heavily quantised? Essentially, fairly memory heavy, while the cost to run is hardware plus electricity? So, unless china is able to innovate much harder, or get much cheaper electricity, I'm not sure how they'd cost less - wage arbitrage doesn't really factor into this one...
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
Umm Anyone checked if any LLM Model was trained in FreePascal?
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard a combination of outsourcing, underpaid internships, and just pulling more work on remaining staff.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
When the bubble pops, everyone will be left too poor to drive any rehiring of subject matter experts. The job losses are already locked in.
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@btuftin not sure the up to date training will happen https://circumstances.run/@davidgerard/116533291722823630
maybe we'll rebuild tech on python 2.7
@davidgerard @btuftin python 3 is close to 20 years old, and it's been usable for 15, most python code written in the last 10 years, while python was serioulsy picking up, has been 3.6+, llms are very much up to date on *that*, and for js you say, well, i'm told the react they write is not the latest and greatest, but it's better than what i'd do.
I predict either a slowdown on adoption of new libraries/language features, or a move on from the current ai tech, but probably not a turn around.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard "the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up", anyone thinking that clearly hasn't worked in tech. I've been in this shit for over 30 years, no one gets paid to clear up anything.
It's rare for a company with paying customers to care if their product is rubbish. This becomes truer the more the customer pays. (and prices charged are rarely proportional to the quality of the product. -
Umm Anyone checked if any LLM Model was trained in FreePascal?
@DBG3D @davidgerard i tried to ask it something simple yet weird enough it couldn't just regurgitate from examples, i can't tell if it's good or not, but feel free to have a look https://chatgpt.com/share/69fc916c-aee4-8333-9534-7f76f1a78687
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard I agree that a depressing to rival the Great Depression is coming, but the ultra rich are not going to suffer like they should.
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@davidgerard @audunmb I also wonder how western states might feel about essentially all the code being generated in china, and then not read by anyone - while also not being lobbied by western cos. I mean, they were happy to wreck 5G and nerf millions of handsets for less.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard What series of events (if any) would cause you to revisit or revise this hypothesis?
For comparison: the "dot com bubble popped" in 2000, but this did not lead to people abandoning commerce on the internet. It just destroyed short-term value, but overall shook out the weak players and made room for better competitors.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
-
we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard as the machine slaves fail, poverty will be declared a crime and slavery will be reintroduced.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard now that you mentioned it, I think those companies will collapse/significantly shrink and a new class of companies will emerge. Same as what happened with dot-com bubble.
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@aaribaud @davidgerard @audunmb @tante : « eating your own shit is never healthy »
https://ploum.net/2022-12-05-drowning-in-ai-generated-garbage.html (written in 2022)
@ploum @aaribaud @davidgerard @audunmb @tante ”We were expecting killing robots, we didn’t realise we were drowned in AI generated garbage. We will never fight laser wearing Terminators. Instead, we have to outsmart algorithms which are making us dumb enough to fight one against the other.”
Great note on the order of things.
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@davidgerard They will come up with a bullshit job name for "shoveling the shit left behind AI" like Automation Output Enhancer and then hire a bunch of recent CS grads and other Gen Z'ers who are desperate for real work for $45k/year and convince them that 60 hours a week is normal.
They'll burn through people like mad with the constant crisis management.
The blame-fire-replace cycle will be severe.
They'll see no way to dig themselves out of the problem they've put themselves in. Making it worse will be their only option (as far as they see).
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
@davidgerard I'm still betting on a huge bailout to prevent an actual bubble pop, or at least delay it indefinitely.
Unfortunately LLMs work quite well for many coding tasks so the value of the technology is not zero (as opposed to crypto), and it will take a long time to figure out what that value actually is.
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we joke that when the AI bubble pops and the managers can't afford the chatbot any more, the surviving companies will hire the people who know how shit works to clean up
but this is of course optimistic. observed behaviour is that they will instead do the stupidest and shortest-term thing they can do instead of ever doing it properly.
so what do you envision this might be?
for clarity, i think when the AI bubble pops, which I place as some time next year at the latest - and you can hear the screeching noises in 2026 - the current recession signs will turn into a full Great Depression 2, so those surviving companies will also be doing not so great
Most academic economic pundits treat this bubble like the dot com or Railroad mania bubble, even though it’s more like Enron with a touch of GFC.
They are thinking that after a crash, there’ll be all this infrastructure laying around like the aftermath of dotcom.
Railroad and fiber optic infrastructure last something like 30 years. Data center components last 1 to 3.
There is no there, there for whatever survivors to swing in and pick up infrastructure for pennies on the dollar
