Fossil gas is a feedstock for the Haber-Bosch process used to make fertiliser (but invented for making early 20th Century munitions).
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@urlyman Any current shortages are just profiteering.
But if the current stupidity goes on for some months, then yes, there will be a simultaneous uptick in energy prices and fertiliser prices. Anywhere dictatorial that relies on rural voters to outweigh urban voters (hello, Turkey, Pakistan) will be in trouble.
Don’t forget the recursive effect of oil price increases on shipping which affects costs of everything being shipped. Hello, inflation.
@BashStKid Bash, I’m exhausted, so my post might not explain this well. It’s not “profiteering to raise prices on goods you do not think you can replace.
If I have gas ¡in the tanks at my service station purchased at price x to sell at price y, the moment my ability to procure more is threatened, the more valuable that gasoline becomes. It now has to pay my immediate AND my future bills. This happens immediately, when supply is threatened, not a few months down the road.
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…If it’s not already obvious, we need to be instituting a Dig For Victory style programme, except it won’t be about ‘victory’, it will be Grow Food To Live.
We need national communal regenerative farming started now. Which means compulsory land orders on wasteful tracts of privately owned land.
But I guess we’ll wait until hunger ravages because we have one of the stupidest governments of my lifetime in power
@urlyman Yay, golf courses🤪
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@urlyman Yay, golf courses🤪
@annehargreaves yay!
Jonathan Schofield (@urlyman@mastodon.social)
Golf is a vector for humanity scoring an infinite bogey https://mastodon.social/@urlyman/113237090783559099
Mastodon (mastodon.social)
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@BashStKid Bash, I’m exhausted, so my post might not explain this well. It’s not “profiteering to raise prices on goods you do not think you can replace.
If I have gas ¡in the tanks at my service station purchased at price x to sell at price y, the moment my ability to procure more is threatened, the more valuable that gasoline becomes. It now has to pay my immediate AND my future bills. This happens immediately, when supply is threatened, not a few months down the road.
@MiriShuli That is literally the definition in most European law, strengthened by any evidence of anticompetitive collusion with other vendors.
The practical point is that regulators rarely target the end of the supply chain, but higher up, in this case the regional oil suppliers, linked to ports and the primary or secondary oil storage for distribution. They’re usually doing the major price fixing, and collusion with other majors. -
@benh thanks Ben. I hadn’t heard about that.
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…“So here’s another hotter effect: Natural gas.
Qatar sits inside the Persian Gulf. They’re responsible for roughly 20% of all globally traded LNG.
Europe spent two years after Ukraine’s invasion rewiring its entire energy import infrastructure away from Russia’s pipeline gas towards US and Qatari LNG.
So European dependency now runs directly through the closed Straits of Hormuz. And unlike oil, there is no overland alternative for LNG…
@urlyman "towards US and Qatari LNG" - and thats the key part here. USA's actions mean that the Qatari LNG is unobtainable currently which suits the USA just fine . Trump did say 'we're going to get very rich' .
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@urlyman "towards US and Qatari LNG" - and thats the key part here. USA's actions mean that the Qatari LNG is unobtainable currently which suits the USA just fine . Trump did say 'we're going to get very rich' .
@alanbuxey what are the chances that the Trump admin thinks the US is well insulated but isn’t?
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…If there’s a single sentence to take away from the above, it’s:
“Flows feel infinite right up until the stock runs out”.
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But that’s enough for now. If it’s too much for you, then sorry, mute or block me.
I’m not going to be not interested in this stuff.
@urlyman do not mute or block him. if learning facts is difficult, pace yourself. a job for chocolate and television.
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…If it’s not already obvious, we need to be instituting a Dig For Victory style programme, except it won’t be about ‘victory’, it will be Grow Food To Live.
We need national communal regenerative farming started now. Which means compulsory land orders on wasteful tracts of privately owned land.
But I guess we’ll wait until hunger ravages because we have one of the stupidest governments of my lifetime in power
"we have one of the stupidest governments of my lifetime in power"
I am 61 and the only change I'd make to that statement is to drop the "one of" clause. (And it's not just the UK. The German government is similarly brain-dead right now. The European right has collectively thrown its hat in the ring with the US right and are being dragged down in the undertow of stupidity.)
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…“And sulfur’s the feedstock for sulfuric acid and sulfuric acid is what we use to leach copper and cobalt out of the ground in places like the DRC and Zambia. The two of those countries together supply over a sixth of global copper and more than 70% of global cobalt.
So the little oil snafu in the Straits of Hormuz could lead to no marginal copper or cobalt.
No transformers, no grid expansion. No grid expansion, no data centers, which means no EV charging infrastructure, no AI build out, etc…
@urlyman so basically they're going to redirect all the remaining copper to data centers, got it -_-
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"we have one of the stupidest governments of my lifetime in power"
I am 61 and the only change I'd make to that statement is to drop the "one of" clause. (And it's not just the UK. The German government is similarly brain-dead right now. The European right has collectively thrown its hat in the ring with the US right and are being dragged down in the undertow of stupidity.)
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@urlyman so basically they're going to redirect all the remaining copper to data centers, got it -_-
@gourd no more fun times with helium-filled squeaky voices either https://mastodon.social/@urlyman/116238375113486478
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…“The wide boundary point here is this.
We’re not watching an oil price shock.
We’re watching the exposure of a civilization that organized itself around maximum efficiency and zero redundancy, and built a single point of geopolitical failure into the center of a global physical economy, the Straits of Hormuz and the situation there is the most consequential single location on the planet for the foreseeable future.”
@urlyman excellent thread. What is most mind breaking is not recognising that most commercially lucrative and effective does mean not best in critical times.
Fact that so many industries are caught back footed is telling very unpleasant truths how world economy runs.
