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  3. Had a lot of fun with my stats students today.

Had a lot of fun with my stats students today.

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  • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

    "Why don't you just load a library to find the mean and SD?"

    Because I'M OLD. I like to write my own function. I do it for integration sometimes... kids these days.

    perigee@rage.loveP This user is from outside of this forum
    perigee@rage.loveP This user is from outside of this forum
    perigee@rage.love
    wrote last edited by
    #7

    @futurebird early in my physical chemistry researcher fellowship I had to write an algorithm to do a Levenberg-Marquardt least squares curve fitting algorithm to an 18 to 28 parameter optical curve (that used double precision complex numbers). I did the first pass implementation in FORTRAN and then needed my postdoc's help to transform the algorithm to matrix algebra in a Matlab implementation. It was fascinating.

    1 Reply Last reply
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    • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

      Had a lot of fun with my stats students today. I gave them two data sets. One from a random number generator, the other was one I made up that was not random, but designed to look random. They were able to figure out which one was fake.

      Then we had ChatGPT make the same kind of data set (random numbers 1-6 set of 100) and it had the same problems as my fake set but in a different way.

      We talked about the study about AI generated passwords.

      futurebird@sauropods.winF This user is from outside of this forum
      futurebird@sauropods.winF This user is from outside of this forum
      futurebird@sauropods.win
      wrote last edited by
      #8

      There is something very creepy about the way LLMs willy cheerfully give lists of "random" numbers. But they aren't random in frequency, and as my students pointed out "it's probably from some webpage about how to generate random numbers"

      But even then, why is the frequency so unnaturally regular? Is that an artifact from mixing lists of real random numbers together?

      darkling@mstdn.socialD burnitdown@beige.partyB okohll@hachyderm.ioO mcc@mastodon.socialM futurebird@sauropods.winF 10 Replies Last reply
      0
      • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

        There is something very creepy about the way LLMs willy cheerfully give lists of "random" numbers. But they aren't random in frequency, and as my students pointed out "it's probably from some webpage about how to generate random numbers"

        But even then, why is the frequency so unnaturally regular? Is that an artifact from mixing lists of real random numbers together?

        darkling@mstdn.socialD This user is from outside of this forum
        darkling@mstdn.socialD This user is from outside of this forum
        darkling@mstdn.social
        wrote last edited by
        #9

        @futurebird I think I've got a printed book of random numbers upstairs somewhere.

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        • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

          Had a lot of fun with my stats students today. I gave them two data sets. One from a random number generator, the other was one I made up that was not random, but designed to look random. They were able to figure out which one was fake.

          Then we had ChatGPT make the same kind of data set (random numbers 1-6 set of 100) and it had the same problems as my fake set but in a different way.

          We talked about the study about AI generated passwords.

          phpete@mastodon.coffeeP This user is from outside of this forum
          phpete@mastodon.coffeeP This user is from outside of this forum
          phpete@mastodon.coffee
          wrote last edited by
          #10

          @futurebird
          Related: the subconscious power of human brains is amazing.

          1 Reply Last reply
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          • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

            There is something very creepy about the way LLMs willy cheerfully give lists of "random" numbers. But they aren't random in frequency, and as my students pointed out "it's probably from some webpage about how to generate random numbers"

            But even then, why is the frequency so unnaturally regular? Is that an artifact from mixing lists of real random numbers together?

            burnitdown@beige.partyB This user is from outside of this forum
            burnitdown@beige.partyB This user is from outside of this forum
            burnitdown@beige.party
            wrote last edited by
            #11

            @futurebird

            FUN FACT: random ain't random. especially in computers.

            if you ask for "random" output from a computer, there is no guarantee that what comes out isn't actually from the contents of RAM.

            life_is@no-pony.farmL dpiponi@mathstodon.xyzD 2 Replies Last reply
            0
            • darkling@mstdn.socialD This user is from outside of this forum
              darkling@mstdn.socialD This user is from outside of this forum
              darkling@mstdn.social
              wrote last edited by
              #12

              @flipper @futurebird I definitely have some of those. Several, in fact, at various levels of precision and different sets of functions.

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              • burnitdown@beige.partyB burnitdown@beige.party

                @futurebird

                FUN FACT: random ain't random. especially in computers.

                if you ask for "random" output from a computer, there is no guarantee that what comes out isn't actually from the contents of RAM.

                life_is@no-pony.farmL This user is from outside of this forum
                life_is@no-pony.farmL This user is from outside of this forum
                life_is@no-pony.farm
                wrote last edited by
                #13
                @burnitdown@beige.party You need to put some NDO into the ram. @futurebird@sauropods.win
                burnitdown@beige.partyB 1 Reply Last reply
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                • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

                  There is something very creepy about the way LLMs willy cheerfully give lists of "random" numbers. But they aren't random in frequency, and as my students pointed out "it's probably from some webpage about how to generate random numbers"

                  But even then, why is the frequency so unnaturally regular? Is that an artifact from mixing lists of real random numbers together?

                  okohll@hachyderm.ioO This user is from outside of this forum
                  okohll@hachyderm.ioO This user is from outside of this forum
                  okohll@hachyderm.io
                  wrote last edited by
                  #14

                  @futurebird haven't tried it but maybe it's also all mixed up with non-random numbers in training content e.g. the next number after '20' is likely one of 0, 1 or 2, the start of a 21st century year so far. Or Benford's law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law

                  cstross@wandering.shopC 1 Reply Last reply
                  0
                  • life_is@no-pony.farmL life_is@no-pony.farm
                    @burnitdown@beige.party You need to put some NDO into the ram. @futurebird@sauropods.win
                    burnitdown@beige.partyB This user is from outside of this forum
                    burnitdown@beige.partyB This user is from outside of this forum
                    burnitdown@beige.party
                    wrote last edited by
                    #15

                    @Life_is @futurebird that's still the contents of RAM, whatever an NDO is.

                    life_is@no-pony.farmL 1 Reply Last reply
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                    • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

                      Had a lot of fun with my stats students today. I gave them two data sets. One from a random number generator, the other was one I made up that was not random, but designed to look random. They were able to figure out which one was fake.

                      Then we had ChatGPT make the same kind of data set (random numbers 1-6 set of 100) and it had the same problems as my fake set but in a different way.

                      We talked about the study about AI generated passwords.

                      geepawhill@mastodon.socialG This user is from outside of this forum
                      geepawhill@mastodon.socialG This user is from outside of this forum
                      geepawhill@mastodon.social
                      wrote last edited by
                      #16

                      @futurebird As you so often do, you sent me off on a tangent. My favorite PRNG is in Knuth, and it's called Algorithm A there. It is entirely additive, so very fast, and has a period of 2^54.

                      I spent *years* tryna to figure out why nobody ever used it or even mentioned it.

                      Finally discovered that it has another name, and that it is quite frequently used today. 🙂

                      I have, of course, completely forgotten its other name, which somebody here on fedi actually told me.

                      1 Reply Last reply
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                      • burnitdown@beige.partyB burnitdown@beige.party

                        @futurebird

                        FUN FACT: random ain't random. especially in computers.

                        if you ask for "random" output from a computer, there is no guarantee that what comes out isn't actually from the contents of RAM.

                        dpiponi@mathstodon.xyzD This user is from outside of this forum
                        dpiponi@mathstodon.xyzD This user is from outside of this forum
                        dpiponi@mathstodon.xyz
                        wrote last edited by
                        #17

                        @burnitdown @futurebird These days if you really want random numbers you can have them. Eg. RDRAND on Intel chips is seeded by analogue circuitry, not by some state updated in RAM. And even if you don't use RDRAND directly its output is still used as a source of entropy for other generators.

                        digitalcalibrator@hol.ogra.phD 1 Reply Last reply
                        0
                        • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

                          There is something very creepy about the way LLMs willy cheerfully give lists of "random" numbers. But they aren't random in frequency, and as my students pointed out "it's probably from some webpage about how to generate random numbers"

                          But even then, why is the frequency so unnaturally regular? Is that an artifact from mixing lists of real random numbers together?

                          mcc@mastodon.socialM This user is from outside of this forum
                          mcc@mastodon.socialM This user is from outside of this forum
                          mcc@mastodon.social
                          wrote last edited by
                          #18

                          @futurebird i mean the LLM itself is just a statistical distribution… the path through the distribution is i assume randomized, but the distribution itself is gonna be the same every time.

                          1 Reply Last reply
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                          • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

                            There is something very creepy about the way LLMs willy cheerfully give lists of "random" numbers. But they aren't random in frequency, and as my students pointed out "it's probably from some webpage about how to generate random numbers"

                            But even then, why is the frequency so unnaturally regular? Is that an artifact from mixing lists of real random numbers together?

                            futurebird@sauropods.winF This user is from outside of this forum
                            futurebird@sauropods.winF This user is from outside of this forum
                            futurebird@sauropods.win
                            wrote last edited by
                            #19

                            The LLM is like a little box of computer horrors that we peer into from time to time.

                            I'm sorry but the whole interface is just so silly.

                            You ask for random numbers with sentences and it pretends to give them to you? What are we doooooing?

                            grumpasaurus@infosec.exchangeG dpiponi@mathstodon.xyzD perigee@rage.loveP gatesvp@mstdn.caG f_dion@mastodon.onlineF 13 Replies Last reply
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                            • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

                              The LLM is like a little box of computer horrors that we peer into from time to time.

                              I'm sorry but the whole interface is just so silly.

                              You ask for random numbers with sentences and it pretends to give them to you? What are we doooooing?

                              grumpasaurus@infosec.exchangeG This user is from outside of this forum
                              grumpasaurus@infosec.exchangeG This user is from outside of this forum
                              grumpasaurus@infosec.exchange
                              wrote last edited by
                              #20

                              @futurebird it really puts into perspective what my interaction with real people is like

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                              • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

                                The LLM is like a little box of computer horrors that we peer into from time to time.

                                I'm sorry but the whole interface is just so silly.

                                You ask for random numbers with sentences and it pretends to give them to you? What are we doooooing?

                                dpiponi@mathstodon.xyzD This user is from outside of this forum
                                dpiponi@mathstodon.xyzD This user is from outside of this forum
                                dpiponi@mathstodon.xyz
                                wrote last edited by
                                #21

                                @futurebird It's very weird.

                                In principle, if you take an LLM, you should be able to get it to generate random numbers in a way that reflects the numbers that appear in the corpus it was trained on. If you have the raw model you can probably do that.

                                But if you ask ChatGPT (or at least if I do) it starts talking about how numbers taken from around us typically follow Benford's law so their first digits have a logarithmic distribution. When it then spits out some random numbers it's no longer sampling random numbers from the entire corpus but a sample that's probably heavily biased towards numbers that appear in articles about Benford's law. I.e. what people have previously said about these numbers, rather than the actual numbers.

                                jedbrown@hachyderm.ioJ raffzahn@mastodon.bayernR 2 Replies Last reply
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                                • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

                                  The LLM is like a little box of computer horrors that we peer into from time to time.

                                  I'm sorry but the whole interface is just so silly.

                                  You ask for random numbers with sentences and it pretends to give them to you? What are we doooooing?

                                  perigee@rage.loveP This user is from outside of this forum
                                  perigee@rage.loveP This user is from outside of this forum
                                  perigee@rage.love
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #22

                                  @futurebird as others here have said or implied, I think LLMs are trained not to be random. Like as a structural part of the statistical models they're based on, so the input corpus will inform the "random" output.

                                  Speaking as a long time not mathematically rigorous enough amateur cryptographer, most humans don't understand (not talking about you or your students, to be clear) that actually random can contain sequences and patterns, or parts of them, so when an uninformed human evaluates "randomness", they don't recognize sequences with patterns even if those are accidental coincidences.

                                  Related, there's also the old cryptography parable that if a low ranking person in the security organization uses random picking to draw random numbers for, for example, a one time pad, the results won't really be random if that volunteer looks into the hat or drum from which they pick because they will subconsciously bias toward patterns like letter and number frequency from their experience and expectations, which might help an attacker decrypt the pad. Maybe.

                                  Since the LLM is supposed to emulate human output it makes sense it might mess with "randomness".

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                                  • futurebird@sauropods.winF This user is from outside of this forum
                                    futurebird@sauropods.winF This user is from outside of this forum
                                    futurebird@sauropods.win
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #23

                                    @Bumblefish

                                    Which one is random?
                                    (data sets are 100 numbers 1 to 6)

                                    listA=[2,3,5,1,2,2,4,2,4,5,2,3,3,4,5,6,4,2,6,2,2,1,3,4,5,5,6,3,3,6,1,4,2,1,4,5,2,2,3,3,3,5,6,3,2,4,5,5,1,1,1,6,1,4,3,5,5,3,1,1,1,6,1,4,6,6,3,6,6,2,4,4,4,5,1,5,6,2,6,1,1,2,4,2,2,3,4,4,5,6,1,3,3,3,5,4,6,5,1,6]

                                    listB=[4,2,5,6,3,5,3,1,3,4,2,3,4,3,4,5,5,1,3,3,2,1,1,6,1,3,2,2,2,6,1,5,6,3,6,3,2,3,2,4,6,1,1,6,3,2,4,1,6,1,3,1,5,6,2,3,3,5,1,6,4,5,2,5,1,1,5,3,6,2,3,3,6,5,2,3,3,1,6,3,2,3,2,1,6,6,4,4,6,2,4,5,4,5,3,4,6,5,3,2]

                                    noplasticshower@infosec.exchangeN zalasur@mastodon.surazal.netZ ramsey@phpc.socialR raederle@masto.nuR dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.orgD 19 Replies Last reply
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                                    • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

                                      @Bumblefish

                                      Which one is random?
                                      (data sets are 100 numbers 1 to 6)

                                      listA=[2,3,5,1,2,2,4,2,4,5,2,3,3,4,5,6,4,2,6,2,2,1,3,4,5,5,6,3,3,6,1,4,2,1,4,5,2,2,3,3,3,5,6,3,2,4,5,5,1,1,1,6,1,4,3,5,5,3,1,1,1,6,1,4,6,6,3,6,6,2,4,4,4,5,1,5,6,2,6,1,1,2,4,2,2,3,4,4,5,6,1,3,3,3,5,4,6,5,1,6]

                                      listB=[4,2,5,6,3,5,3,1,3,4,2,3,4,3,4,5,5,1,3,3,2,1,1,6,1,3,2,2,2,6,1,5,6,3,6,3,2,3,2,4,6,1,1,6,3,2,4,1,6,1,3,1,5,6,2,3,3,5,1,6,4,5,2,5,1,1,5,3,6,2,3,3,6,5,2,3,3,1,6,3,2,3,2,1,6,6,4,4,6,2,4,5,4,5,3,4,6,5,3,2]

                                      noplasticshower@infosec.exchangeN This user is from outside of this forum
                                      noplasticshower@infosec.exchangeN This user is from outside of this forum
                                      noplasticshower@infosec.exchange
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #24

                                      @futurebird @Bumblefish that question makes no sense

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                                      • futurebird@sauropods.winF futurebird@sauropods.win

                                        The LLM is like a little box of computer horrors that we peer into from time to time.

                                        I'm sorry but the whole interface is just so silly.

                                        You ask for random numbers with sentences and it pretends to give them to you? What are we doooooing?

                                        gatesvp@mstdn.caG This user is from outside of this forum
                                        gatesvp@mstdn.caG This user is from outside of this forum
                                        gatesvp@mstdn.ca
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #25

                                        @futurebird I am reminded of a Doctor Who episode, where they realize they are in a simulation because they are incapable of generating truly random numbers. One scene has a whole bunch of scientists sitting at a table and they all keep yelling the same number at the same time.

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                                        • dpiponi@mathstodon.xyzD dpiponi@mathstodon.xyz

                                          @burnitdown @futurebird These days if you really want random numbers you can have them. Eg. RDRAND on Intel chips is seeded by analogue circuitry, not by some state updated in RAM. And even if you don't use RDRAND directly its output is still used as a source of entropy for other generators.

                                          digitalcalibrator@hol.ogra.phD This user is from outside of this forum
                                          digitalcalibrator@hol.ogra.phD This user is from outside of this forum
                                          digitalcalibrator@hol.ogra.ph
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #26

                                          @dpiponi@mathstodon.xyz @burnitdown@beige.party @futurebird@sauropods.win and cloudflare famously uses a camera pointed at a wall of lava lamps because the motion is random

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