Give me your hottest takes:
-
@annaecook ...
This GenAI technology has some very specific limitations.
️ Converts most "text" sources into "data" sources️ Transforms "data" between modalities
️ Create "data"️ Create Stakeholder ConsentThese things are incredible BS machines. They can generate BS all day at incredible speeds. But big companies were already drowning in BS, in bureaucracy. Big companies struggle to get Stakeholder Consent (also called "alignment").
Giving Big Orgs a BS machine doesn't solve their core problem. It doesn't give them the data they need to make big decisions. It doesn't give them Stakeholder Consent to select and prioritize projects. It doesn't make humans make faster decisions.
This is why all of the Big Orgs you see discussing this stuff are all reporting such dismal results. These tools can't help them fix their bottlenecks, it's just exposing those bottlenecks... 🧵️
@annaecook ...
And I've already seen this in the people I speak with. Software Engineers start cranking out features faster and suddenly the PMs can't keep up with specs. They have features available to ship faster than the Analytics team can complete significance testing on the effects of the change.
A lot of things we do still have a maximum human-imposed speed.
I have a friend who works on a Build/Release for a huge product. They ship Android and iOS very regularly. The company rolls out an "GenAI tools to increase productivity" mandate. They roll out some new tools, they're now getting 2x successful builds every day... they still only ship once / 2 weeks because iOS won't approve more than that.
The success of the GenAI tools could have been 100x, it wasn't going to ship the iOS app any faster. GenAI doesn't create Stakeholder Consent, Apple hasn't consented... 🧵️
-
@annaecook ...
And I've already seen this in the people I speak with. Software Engineers start cranking out features faster and suddenly the PMs can't keep up with specs. They have features available to ship faster than the Analytics team can complete significance testing on the effects of the change.
A lot of things we do still have a maximum human-imposed speed.
I have a friend who works on a Build/Release for a huge product. They ship Android and iOS very regularly. The company rolls out an "GenAI tools to increase productivity" mandate. They roll out some new tools, they're now getting 2x successful builds every day... they still only ship once / 2 weeks because iOS won't approve more than that.
The success of the GenAI tools could have been 100x, it wasn't going to ship the iOS app any faster. GenAI doesn't create Stakeholder Consent, Apple hasn't consented... 🧵️
@annaecook ...
The tools aren't (currently) helping to solve big corporate problems. The people I know getting the most mileage out of the GenAI tools are the ones using it for themselves. It's the people offloading parts of their own work onto the robots and simply getting more done faster. And then just kicking off work early or asking for promotions.
So big company programs initiatives aren't seeing the changes. Those research papers that show "no improvement from AI project X"... they're kind of meaningless.
The tools can help individuals because those white collar individuals are mostly data processing and transformation nodes and that's what the tool is good at. But big organizations are mostly decision making systems. Giant decision making graphs. And the tool doesn't make decisions... 🧵️
-
@annaecook ...
The tools aren't (currently) helping to solve big corporate problems. The people I know getting the most mileage out of the GenAI tools are the ones using it for themselves. It's the people offloading parts of their own work onto the robots and simply getting more done faster. And then just kicking off work early or asking for promotions.
So big company programs initiatives aren't seeing the changes. Those research papers that show "no improvement from AI project X"... they're kind of meaningless.
The tools can help individuals because those white collar individuals are mostly data processing and transformation nodes and that's what the tool is good at. But big organizations are mostly decision making systems. Giant decision making graphs. And the tool doesn't make decisions... 🧵️
@annaecook ...
Stitching this all together, here are the short answers.
why are companies continuing to go all in on it?
They have nothing else to invest in.
If AI does not... have ROI when offered as a product / in platforms
It's not making decisions faster, so it's not improving the org. It doesn't matter how you bundle a shovel, it will not help you cut down a tree faster.
If AI does not... increase productivity in employees
I don't necessarily agree with this point because I have spoken with and read from too many people who have counter examples. But like I said, it could produce certain things at 100x the previous performance and the machine would still be moving at the same pace.
That performance boost can both be real and also be of no practical value to the company. And I think we're seeing a lot of that. 🧵️🪡️
(this probably needs to be a blog post somewhere)
️
