While I really dislike tobacco, I can't help thinking that the people backing this move are deluded—did the (failed) US experiment with Prohibition of alcohol pass them by completely, or the equally failed war on drugs?

[dmarti@federate.social]

@aadeacon @cstross Yes, and the surveillance industry needs an organized crime ecosystem to keep revenue going up—so in the UK they'll make one by tracking older smokers who buy more tobacco products than average and trying to catch them selling or trading

[cstross@wandering.shop]

@jonpsp Eventually some right-wing nitwit politician will decide to declare war on tobacco and ramp the penalties for dealing AND POSSESSION to match heroin. (Which tobacco is arguably as lethal as, given the proportion of long-term users of both who die of their respective habits.)

[feijoa@mastodon.org.uk]

@cstross It's not really prohibition though, is it. It's about raising the difficulty of entering into the habit, while minimising blow-back (no pun intended) from older smokers. A similar law was passed in New Zealand, but only lasted a year because of a change of government to the local conservatives who said they needed the revenue to fund tax cuts.

Perpetually raising taxes on cigarettes does have the organized crime effect that you speak of.

[kathmandu@stranger.social]

@cstross

This also goes beyond age discrimination, into generational discrimination. In the USA, framing smoking as an 'adult thing' made it very attractive to teens, *reinforcing* the 'teens get hooked before reaching adulthood' pattern.

Since Gen Alpha is already angry that older cohorts used up so much of the fun and easy possibilities, this will reinforce 'you're hogging all the good stuff' with 'you're turning us into a disempowered permanent underclass'.

And for tobacco?!?

[drajt@fosstodon.org]

@cstross I'm highly conflicted. Tobacco killed several relatives in horrible ways.

Outright bans without a general attitude change is a gift to criminals.

I prefer the gradual squeeze approach, making it socially unacceptable, punishing vendors who break the rules, raising duty and treating the addicts. An age lock may work if the other methods have already had a big impact, otherwise it's pointless.

[gentlemantech@cyberplace.social]

@cstross in Australia they’re they’re trying to price it out. A packet now costs $50+

The only problem is that you can grow it here so import control doesn’t really work.

You can buy loose tobacco from any corner shop at 10% of official prices. Profits going mostly to bikie gangs who are handling the distribution effeciently.

Government is paralysed and has no idea how to handle it.

They never fucking learn

[noodlemaz@mstdn.games]

@cstross it's not prohibition, though. This doesn't affect the people who are already dependent. People born before 09 will continue being able to buy the products.

It's phased because Tobacco's in is the curious young, who start early and then can't stop and continue because it's easy to do so.
It's about raising the barrier.

Nobody is out grabbing packs out of the hands of the 30+es who keep trying and failing to quit, or aren't interested in quitting.

[noodlemaz@mstdn.games]

@TindrasGrove @cstross we did that in 2007. It has made a difference.
Although it's not banned in private homes for the most part, most shared living areas will have restrictions in place (mainly because people have to work there and the major reason we were able to pass it was via protecting workers' health and not the 'personal freedoms curtailed' angle).

I had a great many Internet arguments with people about this around that time.

[noodlemaz@mstdn.games]

@cstross @jonpsp heroin doesn't have huge, obscenely wealthy and politically powerful companies behind it like Tobacco. Another key difference. And heroin (not with a fucking e, phone!!) has never been a socially acceptable habit.

[cstross@wandering.shop]

@noodlemaz I know that. I still think it's going to fail because from the PoV of the under-age it *is* prohibition.

[cstross@wandering.shop]

@noodlemaz @jonpsp I think you're wrong about heroin not having huge and obscenely wealthy backers. (I suspect a lot of drugs money goes into keeping narcotics illegal precisely because that keeps prices artificially high.)

Also when the first misuse of drugs act arrived in the 1920s (here in the UK) 50-60% of the heroin and cocaine addicts initially registering in the UK were doctors and pharmacists. So much for "socially respectable".

[paul_ipv6@infosec.exchange]

@cstross

yeah... i'll predict much more prevalence of even more unsafe products...

the human race is really bad at learning from history.

"those who ignore history doom the rest of us to reliving it..."

[noodlemaz@mstdn.games]

@cstross @jonpsp coke is a different ballgame, city wankers swim in it. And a lot of groups of wealthy/twatty people.

I'm not saying drug cartels don't exist. But they don't have the same acceptability, reach and organisation as Tobacco has and has had. It's a uniquely awful beast.

If we compare Tobacco to anything, I think it can only really be Oil.

[cstross@wandering.shop]

@noodlemaz @jonpsp Oh, the tobacco industry learned from big oil, and vice versa. (And AI and cryptocurrency grifters have both adopted the same techniques.)

[realcainmosni@mastodon.me.uk]

@cstross Not at all well thought through, as a policy.

[mastodonmigration@mastodon.online]

@cstross

Precisely right. What works is education not regulation. Which is why we need more education about the AI mental health crisis.

How to smoke

I used to love to smoke. If it weren’t for the whole lung cancer, emphysema, death thing, would you recommend smoking?

(buttondown.com)

[lazarou@mastodon.social]

@cstross I feel the same.

Also moves like that make the Legalisation of Weed and the others further away, which is the wrong way.

[billysmith@social.coop]

@noodlemaz @TindrasGrove @cstross

Also, remember in Scotland, the plan was to ban smoking on the public streets, but then the Fossil Fuel lobbies argued against that, as if the ban went through, and people still died of respiratory problems, they would find out where the problems really came from...

[michaelgemar@cosocial.ca]

@cstross There are some major differences. Most people who drink aren’t alcoholics, whereas most smokers are literally addicted — there is not the same market of “casual” users.

And most research I’ve seen suggests that if people don’t start smoking young, they won’t pick it up.

Finally, it’s easier to make booze illegally in small batches than it is to grow and cure tobacco, so illegal tobacco requires a lot more effort to pull off.

[photo55@mastodon.social]

@cstross I'd not like to call Nicotine safe, but the worst things about tobacco revolve around the smoke.