Oh good grief, this summary is both farcical and tragic: also, Trump has fucked air travel for at least the next two years, never mind automobiles and logistics.
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@mavu @graydon @isaackuo Well, the silver lining is that the end stage of this prediction is that we'll phase out fossil fuels *faster* than might otherwise have happened. The leaden side is that the transition will be bumpy and a bit bangy on the side, with unforseeable side-effects (hopefully limited to billionaires swinging from lamp-posts, but we're unlikely to get off that lightly).
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@graydon @isaackuo I see us getting into a feedback cycle.
Oil/gas war in the Gulf -> skyrocketing oil/gas prices.
High fossil prices -> PV/battery more profitable
Profitable renewables -> less demand for fossils
Sinking demand -> increases incentive for war in the Gulf to keep prices high (before fossil energy fields become stranded assets)
So we're getting into end-of-oil scarcity wars, with the added twist that there's no overall energy shortage, it's just a capitalism extinction burst.
@cstross @graydon @isaackuo Possible side quest for those of us keeping a classic vehicle pet going on the side:
With the cost of dino fluid skyrocketing, it might actually make synthetic fuel look reasonable by comparison, and as that happens that might even get cheaper due to more demand.
Context: The 2.71 euro per liter of euro98 I had to pay 2 weeks ago was a bit yikes, and it'll likely cross 3 euro per liter by the end of the week.
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@cstross @graydon @isaackuo Possible side quest for those of us keeping a classic vehicle pet going on the side:
With the cost of dino fluid skyrocketing, it might actually make synthetic fuel look reasonable by comparison, and as that happens that might even get cheaper due to more demand.
Context: The 2.71 euro per liter of euro98 I had to pay 2 weeks ago was a bit yikes, and it'll likely cross 3 euro per liter by the end of the week.
@Tubemeister @graydon @isaackuo Synthetic fuel via Fischer-Tropsch reaction, as long as the H2 is from electrolysis and the CO is by reduction of CO2 from the air, can be carbon-neutral (if energetically much less efficient than straight solar PV to battery power). If the CO is from coal or reformed natural gas, that's a lot less of a good thing.
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@Tubemeister @graydon @isaackuo Synthetic fuel via Fischer-Tropsch reaction, as long as the H2 is from electrolysis and the CO is by reduction of CO2 from the air, can be carbon-neutral (if energetically much less efficient than straight solar PV to battery power). If the CO is from coal or reformed natural gas, that's a lot less of a good thing.
@cstross Yeah it all depends ofcourse, but there's at least a chance to get something a bit cleaner than straight petrol.
Until recently that still fell into the firmly way too expensive bucket if you wanted to fill something bigger than a lawnmower, but times they are a changing.
I mean for the daily commute and other dumb A-B stuff an EV makes a ton more sense obviously...
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@cstross on one level Trump has done more for Open Source software and renewable energy in a few months than the Democrats did in years. Nothing like being a clueless despot for making people think about what they buy and how they do things...
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@graydon @isaackuo I see us getting into a feedback cycle.
Oil/gas war in the Gulf -> skyrocketing oil/gas prices.
High fossil prices -> PV/battery more profitable
Profitable renewables -> less demand for fossils
Sinking demand -> increases incentive for war in the Gulf to keep prices high (before fossil energy fields become stranded assets)
So we're getting into end-of-oil scarcity wars, with the added twist that there's no overall energy shortage, it's just a capitalism extinction burst.
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@isaackuo @cstross Yes, all the other planes are also way too expensive. When Iran has only been able to shoot down 2 planes, the reason is that US and Israel have attacked primarily with land/ship-launched missiles, and possibly some plane-launched missiles and glide bombs. The planes are too vulnerable to get close to any target with a working AA system, that includes 1970's USSR spec.
@NohatCoder @isaackuo @cstross the Serbians were able to shoot down a F-117 with Soviet-era S-125 air defenses. I would bet the F-117 is much more stealthy than the F-35.
How A Dogged Serbian Commander Shot Down The Stealthy US F-117 Nighthawk In 1999
While the F-117's shootdown was a lucky shot, it was one of two Nighthawks hit by Serbian air defense.
Simple Flying (simpleflying.com)
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@fazalmajid @cstross @isaackuo I can well believe it.
A sea mine as generally imagined is 19th century technology and not in any way efficient.
Today, there are ocean gliders with many month's endurance; it would not be hard to make these crisscross shipping lanes and preferentially attack propellers. One state-level actor doing the design work is all it takes, and it's not easy to believe no one has.
Clearing such things would be a selection of novel challenges.
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@fazalmajid @cstross @isaackuo I can well believe it.
A sea mine as generally imagined is 19th century technology and not in any way efficient.
Today, there are ocean gliders with many month's endurance; it would not be hard to make these crisscross shipping lanes and preferentially attack propellers. One state-level actor doing the design work is all it takes, and it's not easy to believe no one has.
Clearing such things would be a selection of novel challenges.
@graydon @fazalmajid @isaackuo And then there are CAPTOR mines. The US has had then since 1979; it's as mature a technology as cruise missiles—a homing torpedo in a can. Sits on the sea floor for weeks to months, listening for the blade count characteristic of a designated target. When a target drives by, the torpedo pops out and makes a speed run at it.
I am *certain* Iran has the chops to build its own version. And the Straits are narrow enough to make a database of targets easy to build.
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@NohatCoder @isaackuo @cstross the Serbians were able to shoot down a F-117 with Soviet-era S-125 air defenses. I would bet the F-117 is much more stealthy than the F-35.
How A Dogged Serbian Commander Shot Down The Stealthy US F-117 Nighthawk In 1999
While the F-117's shootdown was a lucky shot, it was one of two Nighthawks hit by Serbian air defense.
Simple Flying (simpleflying.com)
@fazalmajid @NohatCoder @cstross People make way too much out of this one engagement, acting like this somehow "proves" stealth doesn't work.
The linked article explains how much luck and circumstance was required.
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@fazalmajid @cstross @isaackuo I can well believe it.
A sea mine as generally imagined is 19th century technology and not in any way efficient.
Today, there are ocean gliders with many month's endurance; it would not be hard to make these crisscross shipping lanes and preferentially attack propellers. One state-level actor doing the design work is all it takes, and it's not easy to believe no one has.
Clearing such things would be a selection of novel challenges.
@graydon @fazalmajid @cstross My intuition is that ocean gliders would not be suitable for acting as sea mines - too much mass and complexity for too little payload - but in any case they aren't needed. (And they're way too slow to go after propellers.)
As it is, even WWII era mines are DIFFICULT to counter and DIFFICULT to sweep. Particularly difficult to deal with are simple sea bed mines, and you can't just sweep them easily because they can be programmed with a waiting counter.
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@graydon @fazalmajid @isaackuo And then there are CAPTOR mines. The US has had then since 1979; it's as mature a technology as cruise missiles—a homing torpedo in a can. Sits on the sea floor for weeks to months, listening for the blade count characteristic of a designated target. When a target drives by, the torpedo pops out and makes a speed run at it.
I am *certain* Iran has the chops to build its own version. And the Straits are narrow enough to make a database of targets easy to build.
@cstross @fazalmajid @isaackuo Yup.
Submerged deployment options are certainly a thing. (Maybe not for Iran, but that tech is widespread, too.) And "go for the prop, not a sinking" is an item there, too; the owners now have to try to recover their drifting asset, which is an insurance and liability nightmare before it's a stack of costs. The attacker can point out they are being ecologically responsible. (Perhaps by only shooting at empties, even.)
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@graydon @fazalmajid @cstross My intuition is that ocean gliders would not be suitable for acting as sea mines - too much mass and complexity for too little payload - but in any case they aren't needed. (And they're way too slow to go after propellers.)
As it is, even WWII era mines are DIFFICULT to counter and DIFFICULT to sweep. Particularly difficult to deal with are simple sea bed mines, and you can't just sweep them easily because they can be programmed with a waiting counter.
@graydon @fazalmajid @cstross Another thing to ponder is that the Strait of Hormuz is narrow enough to use fiber optics to command and receive sensor data from sea bed mines.
This would provide a precision and flexibility that WWII commanders could only wish for.
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@graydon @fazalmajid @cstross My intuition is that ocean gliders would not be suitable for acting as sea mines - too much mass and complexity for too little payload - but in any case they aren't needed. (And they're way too slow to go after propellers.)
As it is, even WWII era mines are DIFFICULT to counter and DIFFICULT to sweep. Particularly difficult to deal with are simple sea bed mines, and you can't just sweep them easily because they can be programmed with a waiting counter.
@isaackuo @fazalmajid @cstross the problem with trad mines is that you have to deploy them in visible ways; it isn't practical if the other side has continuous reconnaissance or air dominance.
Anybody planning to fight the US expects to operate subjected to both of those things.
A modern take on the [Helmover torpedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmover_torpedo) with more autonomy and some form of rapid coastal launch could be quite effective for strait control.
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@isaackuo @fazalmajid @cstross the problem with trad mines is that you have to deploy them in visible ways; it isn't practical if the other side has continuous reconnaissance or air dominance.
Anybody planning to fight the US expects to operate subjected to both of those things.
A modern take on the [Helmover torpedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmover_torpedo) with more autonomy and some form of rapid coastal launch could be quite effective for strait control.
@graydon @fazalmajid @cstross Yeah, but sea bed mines can easily be deployed years in advance during peace time.
So, some Iranian military boats sail around the Strait all the time. Who can tell if/when/where they drop mines? Not so easy.
And fiber optic is not the only command option. They could receive a coded sonar ping for activation, for example.
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@graydon @fazalmajid @cstross Yeah, but sea bed mines can easily be deployed years in advance during peace time.
So, some Iranian military boats sail around the Strait all the time. Who can tell if/when/where they drop mines? Not so easy.
And fiber optic is not the only command option. They could receive a coded sonar ping for activation, for example.
@graydon @fazalmajid @cstross BTW, I've thought about these things for quite some time ... just in the context of a different Strait.
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@graydon @fazalmajid @cstross BTW, I've thought about these things for quite some time ... just in the context of a different Strait.
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@fazalmajid @graydon @cstross Taiwan Straight.
Much of it, btw, is not deep enough for effective use of submarine gliders. But really good for sea bed mines.
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@blotosmetek @cstross @isaackuo the US mind cannot comprehend the metric system. We need to translate it somehow using absurd units like washing machines per square palms or elephants per rednecks.
@caesarologia @blotosmetek @cstross @isaackuo Rednecks per elephant, surely. Or have I been calculating it wrong all this time? Anyway, we I. The UK have our own bizzare measures and I still don't quite know how many hundred weight of chains are in a fluid guinea.
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