🎬 New video!
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New video! @pauleveritt and I debate: Will AI kill open source?We dig into the "soccer field" analogy, why Tailwind usage is up 600% while revenue tanks, the left-pad problem, what happens when AI pricing subsidies end, and the uncomfortable question of putting your name on AI-assisted code.
Our take: micro open source is probably toast, but the big building blocks aren't going anywhere - as long as we stay in the architect's seat.
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New video! @pauleveritt and I debate: Will AI kill open source?
We dig into the "soccer field" analogy, why Tailwind usage is up 600% while revenue tanks, the left-pad problem, what happens when AI pricing subsidies end, and the uncomfortable question of putting your name on AI-assisted code.
Our take: micro open source is probably toast, but the big building blocks aren't going anywhere - as long as we stay in the architect's seat.
@mkennedy Wonderful writeup, thanks for doing it. You have a lot of good thinking and writing on this that I can get onboard for. So, let me pick a place where we disagree.
"My take is that hardware costs are dropping even faster.” My man @edzitron has some good takes on this. (a) Sure, but the new rack it goes in is crazy expensive and requires a data center change. IIRC. (b) Power draw…always the data center nemesis.
But most of all…
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@mkennedy Wonderful writeup, thanks for doing it. You have a lot of good thinking and writing on this that I can get onboard for. So, let me pick a place where we disagree.
"My take is that hardware costs are dropping even faster.” My man @edzitron has some good takes on this. (a) Sure, but the new rack it goes in is crazy expensive and requires a data center change. IIRC. (b) Power draw…always the data center nemesis.
But most of all…
@mkennedy @edzitron (c) Capex. They have a pile of pre-Blackwell purchased, awaiting data center, which they've finagled the books to spread the depreciation.
And they have "paid" for a pile of Blackwells, which haven't arrived, same depreciation gamification.
Are they just going to write off all of those and install the latest? Which will be obsolete before install? Who goes bankrupt before latest gets in production?
(I recognize I'm likely out over my skis on this.)
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@mkennedy @edzitron (c) Capex. They have a pile of pre-Blackwell purchased, awaiting data center, which they've finagled the books to spread the depreciation.
And they have "paid" for a pile of Blackwells, which haven't arrived, same depreciation gamification.
Are they just going to write off all of those and install the latest? Which will be obsolete before install? Who goes bankrupt before latest gets in production?
(I recognize I'm likely out over my skis on this.)
@pauleveritt @edzitron You're welcome Paul. It was a fun chat and I'm happy to got to share it with everyone!
Interesting points for sure.
- power draw, the new hardware is 10x more efficient so I think that is kind of out.
- needing to use up older ones, this is data center investment YoY, so there will be plenty of new DCs built for the new hardware soon
- cap ex, agreed. this is a solution for the long term, not short term.Cheers
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@pauleveritt @edzitron You're welcome Paul. It was a fun chat and I'm happy to got to share it with everyone!
Interesting points for sure.
- power draw, the new hardware is 10x more efficient so I think that is kind of out.
- needing to use up older ones, this is data center investment YoY, so there will be plenty of new DCs built for the new hardware soon
- cap ex, agreed. this is a solution for the long term, not short term.Cheers
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@pauleveritt @edzitron Here are two very interesting and relevant CNBC on location style reports (good actually):
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@pauleveritt @edzitron Here are two very interesting and relevant CNBC on location style reports (good actually):
@pauleveritt @edzitron And on the Vera Rubin upgrade (10x):
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New video! @pauleveritt and I debate: Will AI kill open source?
We dig into the "soccer field" analogy, why Tailwind usage is up 600% while revenue tanks, the left-pad problem, what happens when AI pricing subsidies end, and the uncomfortable question of putting your name on AI-assisted code.
Our take: micro open source is probably toast, but the big building blocks aren't going anywhere - as long as we stay in the architect's seat.
@mkennedy I didn't realize you have your own channel. Subscribed!
What's the focus on that channel? -
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