Rand (the strategic think tank) have four scenarios for the immediate domestic political future of Iran:
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Rand (the strategic think tank) have four scenarios for the immediate domestic political future of Iran:
1. The (remaining) leadership 'dig in' resulting in a continuation of domestic repression;
2. The leadership 'cut & run' leaving a power vacuum;
3. The Revolutionary Guard step up & impose a military Junta of some sort;
4. A popular uprising asserting a new Iranian political settlement.
These are, of course, not mutually exclusive!
#Iran #politics #democracy
https://theconversation.com/who-or-what-will-replace-irans-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-274753 -
Rand (the strategic think tank) have four scenarios for the immediate domestic political future of Iran:
1. The (remaining) leadership 'dig in' resulting in a continuation of domestic repression;
2. The leadership 'cut & run' leaving a power vacuum;
3. The Revolutionary Guard step up & impose a military Junta of some sort;
4. A popular uprising asserting a new Iranian political settlement.
These are, of course, not mutually exclusive!
#Iran #politics #democracy
https://theconversation.com/who-or-what-will-replace-irans-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-274753@ChrisMayLA6 For now it seems that anyone who is selected to be the new supreme leader will become a prime target for Israel and the USA. Sortition by fire?!
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@ChrisMayLA6 For now it seems that anyone who is selected to be the new supreme leader will become a prime target for Israel and the USA. Sortition by fire?!
Or ability to dodge the fire; the next supreme leader will need to be a master of locational misdirection
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Or ability to dodge the fire; the next supreme leader will need to be a master of locational misdirection
@ChrisMayLA6 Indeed - you'd have thought they might have learnt by now. Either moles or technology are giving the locations away - probably both.
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Rand (the strategic think tank) have four scenarios for the immediate domestic political future of Iran:
1. The (remaining) leadership 'dig in' resulting in a continuation of domestic repression;
2. The leadership 'cut & run' leaving a power vacuum;
3. The Revolutionary Guard step up & impose a military Junta of some sort;
4. A popular uprising asserting a new Iranian political settlement.
These are, of course, not mutually exclusive!
#Iran #politics #democracy
https://theconversation.com/who-or-what-will-replace-irans-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-274753@ChrisMayLA6
I think they are close to electing another Mullah once the funeral out of the way -
@ChrisMayLA6 Indeed - you'd have thought they might have learnt by now. Either moles or technology are giving the locations away - probably both.
@alex_p_roe @ChrisMayLA6 Technology: according to an article I saw, Israel have hacked the traffic lights in Iran and tracked him using that
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Rand (the strategic think tank) have four scenarios for the immediate domestic political future of Iran:
1. The (remaining) leadership 'dig in' resulting in a continuation of domestic repression;
2. The leadership 'cut & run' leaving a power vacuum;
3. The Revolutionary Guard step up & impose a military Junta of some sort;
4. A popular uprising asserting a new Iranian political settlement.
These are, of course, not mutually exclusive!
#Iran #politics #democracy
https://theconversation.com/who-or-what-will-replace-irans-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-274753@ChrisMayLA6 Which of these happened in Libya?
5. The IRG, secret police, and local factions each form a separate nexus of power, with geographically overlapping regions of control and conflicting economic goals. Years of civil war ensues. Only well resourced commercial operations benefit.
Rand's answer has provided the
regime with 4 simplistic talking points. They have evaded the usual, chaotic, ultimately extractive result, probably so as not to confuse the greedy muppets in power (sorry Mr Henson) and risk losing the next contract. -
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