Woke up to the good news that the Gorton & Denton by-election was won by the Greens, who stomped all over Reform UK and left Labour in third place—in a constituency where Labour hasn't lost an election since 1931.
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Gorton & Denton was the Green Party's 127th ranked target constituency, implying that on current popularity they'd win at least 127 seats in a general election—but probably more, because their G&D win margin was over 4000 votes, and they've broken out of their normal southern areas. Labour support among muslim voters has collapsed over Starmer's Gaza policy.
And 67% of voters rejected the far right politics of Reform, who got 29% of the vote.
@cstross And Labour played this game of "Keeping Reform out of office is just so important and only we can do that. If you vote for the Greens, you'll get Reform." They publicly tried to get the Green candidate to drop out using this argument, while offering nothing to the Greens as a party in return if they did. I think now that the Greens were able to win this and by a sizeable margin over both credible challengers, this sort of argument will be even less effective in future contests.
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@cstross And Labour played this game of "Keeping Reform out of office is just so important and only we can do that. If you vote for the Greens, you'll get Reform." They publicly tried to get the Green candidate to drop out using this argument, while offering nothing to the Greens as a party in return if they did. I think now that the Greens were able to win this and by a sizeable margin over both credible challengers, this sort of argument will be even less effective in future contests.
@cstross Green IS electable and by showing that I think they're going to benefit from a little bit of a snowball as I think more people who have historically voted Labour will be willing to move their vote now.
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Woke up to the good news that the Gorton & Denton by-election was won by the Greens, who stomped all over Reform UK and left Labour in third place—in a constituency where Labour hasn't lost an election since 1931.
Reform UK candidate showed his true colours, ranting about a "Woke and Muslim conspiracy", of course. (This is the guy who wants to change the law to force women to get married and have more babies, deport non-whites, and criminalize LGBT+ people, starting with the trans.)
My bad: apparently he was ranting about a "woke progressive and muslim" conspiracy. I forgot the P word, so obviously a dominant factor in English politics over the past seven decades.
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Gorton & Denton was the Green Party's 127th ranked target constituency, implying that on current popularity they'd win at least 127 seats in a general election—but probably more, because their G&D win margin was over 4000 votes, and they've broken out of their normal southern areas. Labour support among muslim voters has collapsed over Starmer's Gaza policy.
And 67% of voters rejected the far right politics of Reform, who got 29% of the vote.
@cstross reform got about 13% of the total eligible voters, so suggests they struggle break out of “committed racists” core base who are about 8-10%[1]
It’s only media hype that they’ve got so far!
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Gorton & Denton was the Green Party's 127th ranked target constituency, implying that on current popularity they'd win at least 127 seats in a general election—but probably more, because their G&D win margin was over 4000 votes, and they've broken out of their normal southern areas. Labour support among muslim voters has collapsed over Starmer's Gaza policy.
And 67% of voters rejected the far right politics of Reform, who got 29% of the vote.
And I keep wondering (as I do with our politics over here) what is wrong with that 29%? *
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And I keep wondering (as I do with our politics over here) what is wrong with that 29%? *
@jkcheney Bear in mind that until 2010 the Conservative party wasn't desperately running to the right to outflank the far-right insurgency. And a bunch of voters are tribal—they vote the same way grandpa did. Reform UK has a *huge* grip on the news media in the UK (because: billionaire oligarchs) but the public aren't quite so keen, it turns out. Being told the Tories had collapsed, a lot of Tory voters went for the closest thing on the menu—Reform UK—so that 29% is actually a coalition.
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My bad: apparently he was ranting about a "woke progressive and muslim" conspiracy. I forgot the P word, so obviously a dominant factor in English politics over the past seven decades.
@cstross Plumber?
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@jkcheney Bear in mind that until 2010 the Conservative party wasn't desperately running to the right to outflank the far-right insurgency. And a bunch of voters are tribal—they vote the same way grandpa did. Reform UK has a *huge* grip on the news media in the UK (because: billionaire oligarchs) but the public aren't quite so keen, it turns out. Being told the Tories had collapsed, a lot of Tory voters went for the closest thing on the menu—Reform UK—so that 29% is actually a coalition.
That makes sense. I feel like ours group of weirdos is the same thing. Most of my family voted in that block, but only about half for racist reasons.
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@cstross Plumber?
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Woke up to the good news that the Gorton & Denton by-election was won by the Greens, who stomped all over Reform UK and left Labour in third place—in a constituency where Labour hasn't lost an election since 1931.
Reform UK candidate showed his true colours, ranting about a "Woke and Muslim conspiracy", of course. (This is the guy who wants to change the law to force women to get married and have more babies, deport non-whites, and criminalize LGBT+ people, starting with the trans.)
@cstross makes you wonder who really wants to enforce "Shari'a Law"?
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Woke up to the good news that the Gorton & Denton by-election was won by the Greens, who stomped all over Reform UK and left Labour in third place—in a constituency where Labour hasn't lost an election since 1931.
Reform UK candidate showed his true colours, ranting about a "Woke and Muslim conspiracy", of course. (This is the guy who wants to change the law to force women to get married and have more babies, deport non-whites, and criminalize LGBT+ people, starting with the trans.)
@cstross TBF Labour have lost many local elections in this constituency since 1931.
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@cstross TBF Labour have lost many local elections in this constituency since 1931.
@diffrentcolours Not according to their candidate last night … (are you conflating council elections, by-elections, and/or general elections?)
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@cstross Green IS electable and by showing that I think they're going to benefit from a little bit of a snowball as I think more people who have historically voted Labour will be willing to move their vote now.
@Infoseepage
Green MPs improve Parliament. Quite a lot of them would improve it quite a lot more.
I think we need a phase where they acquire competence before they take the great offices of State.So far as Reform goes, they'll avoid competence, the Tories have lost it, and Labour has a historical depth of it and various ministers from previous and current government.
Oh, and LibDems. Um.
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@cstross Anyone trying to spin "Muslims voting for a woman in a party led by a gay Jewish man" (quote taken from elsewhere) as evidence of a Muslim conspiracy deserves every hard time they get.
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Woke up to the good news that the Gorton & Denton by-election was won by the Greens, who stomped all over Reform UK and left Labour in third place—in a constituency where Labour hasn't lost an election since 1931.
Reform UK candidate showed his true colours, ranting about a "Woke and Muslim conspiracy", of course. (This is the guy who wants to change the law to force women to get married and have more babies, deport non-whites, and criminalize LGBT+ people, starting with the trans.)
@cstross
_Entirely_ without evidence or investigation I incline to suspect he wants to force women to have _his_ babies, and may have already implemented attempts at this.
And is in congenial company in that Party.(Congeners: blamed for hangovers)
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@cstross
_Entirely_ without evidence or investigation I incline to suspect he wants to force women to have _his_ babies, and may have already implemented attempts at this.
And is in congenial company in that Party.(Congeners: blamed for hangovers)
@Photo55 Yes, exactly. He's got a troublesome history with a neo-nazi eugenicist "think tank": always looks to be about 3 seconds away from spitting out the 14 words and goose-stepping off the podium sieg heiling.
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My bad: apparently he was ranting about a "woke progressive and muslim" conspiracy. I forgot the P word, so obviously a dominant factor in English politics over the past seven decades.
@cstross a conspiracy to vote against someone is, of course, just called a "majority"
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