Did my duty and voted in perhaps the most depressing election of my life.
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Something like half of the English local results will be counted overnight, but it's certain to be a bloodbath — and even though everyone always agrees that local elections don't reflect how national elections will go (especially three years out) they also always immediately get on board with them being the most consequential elections ever.
This time with the added flavour of the speculation about Starmer being ousted.
If something spicy does happen around the PM — I don't think it will and I think it'd be disastrously stupid if it does — my guess would be that it won't come until Monday at the earliest.
Either way, I have all my fingers and toes crossed hoping beyond hope that the polling is out of whack and the Greens/Reform do worse than expected. I'd even take a LibDem surge to help minimise the damage of this mad national descent into populism.
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If something spicy does happen around the PM — I don't think it will and I think it'd be disastrously stupid if it does — my guess would be that it won't come until Monday at the earliest.
Either way, I have all my fingers and toes crossed hoping beyond hope that the polling is out of whack and the Greens/Reform do worse than expected. I'd even take a LibDem surge to help minimise the damage of this mad national descent into populism.
I didn't get my blog out on time before the election, but my predictions are thus:
- a slaughter in the locals as expected, ~1,500 seats lost to the populists
- Tories similarly bad
- Greens and Reform will take control of LOTS of councils — will be keen to track how badly both do
- Wales goes almost perfectly left/right 50:50 split, with a rainbow left coalition taking power
- SNP hold Scotland with reduced majority
- I depress myself so much I shrivel up and turn into a corn cob -
I didn't get my blog out on time before the election, but my predictions are thus:
- a slaughter in the locals as expected, ~1,500 seats lost to the populists
- Tories similarly bad
- Greens and Reform will take control of LOTS of councils — will be keen to track how badly both do
- Wales goes almost perfectly left/right 50:50 split, with a rainbow left coalition taking power
- SNP hold Scotland with reduced majority
- I depress myself so much I shrivel up and turn into a corn cobBig trends so far:
- Labour doing a bit better than expected, or rather less bad then expected — ~1,200 losses if overnight trend continues
- Green support up, struggling to translate into seats
- Labour losing seats to Reform in areas where they're losing more votes to the Greens
- Tories squeezed on all sides with their sole bright spot so far being their retaking of WestminsterPainful and extremely depressing, but here we are. Welsh counting now underway.
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Big trends so far:
- Labour doing a bit better than expected, or rather less bad then expected — ~1,200 losses if overnight trend continues
- Green support up, struggling to translate into seats
- Labour losing seats to Reform in areas where they're losing more votes to the Greens
- Tories squeezed on all sides with their sole bright spot so far being their retaking of WestminsterPainful and extremely depressing, but here we are. Welsh counting now underway.
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I'm on tenter hooks now. Plaid pipping out Reform will remove lots of the bullshit from post-election discourse.
Plaid/Labour governing in a reverse of their previous confidence arrangements will be ideal if that's enough to get them over the line. Very glad Greens seem unlikely to be needed for a coalition.
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I didn't get my blog out on time before the election, but my predictions are thus:
- a slaughter in the locals as expected, ~1,500 seats lost to the populists
- Tories similarly bad
- Greens and Reform will take control of LOTS of councils — will be keen to track how badly both do
- Wales goes almost perfectly left/right 50:50 split, with a rainbow left coalition taking power
- SNP hold Scotland with reduced majority
- I depress myself so much I shrivel up and turn into a corn cobMostly wrapped up now and I didn't do too badly:
- Labour down ~1,200 councillors, a bit less than expected
- Tories had a bad showing but had little left to lose
- Reform gained lots of councillors but only 13 councils. Greens did less than half of Reforms numbers and only took 4 councils.
- Wales wasn't quite 50:50, with Reform underperforming. Labour/Plaid coalition looks most likely.
- SNP still the largest party but lost their majority lol -
Mostly wrapped up now and I didn't do too badly:
- Labour down ~1,200 councillors, a bit less than expected
- Tories had a bad showing but had little left to lose
- Reform gained lots of councillors but only 13 councils. Greens did less than half of Reforms numbers and only took 4 councils.
- Wales wasn't quite 50:50, with Reform underperforming. Labour/Plaid coalition looks most likely.
- SNP still the largest party but lost their majority lolBiggest surprise for me was how most lost councils went into NOC than being picked up by Reform/Greens. I overestimated how their support would translate into seats.
Least surprising part was how quickly everyone leapt to these locals being the most important elections ever. Some of the responses today had clearly been drafted months ago.
I'll wait until Monday but I'm pretty sure already that the rumours of a leadership challenge are nonsense.
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Biggest surprise for me was how most lost councils went into NOC than being picked up by Reform/Greens. I overestimated how their support would translate into seats.
Least surprising part was how quickly everyone leapt to these locals being the most important elections ever. Some of the responses today had clearly been drafted months ago.
I'll wait until Monday but I'm pretty sure already that the rumours of a leadership challenge are nonsense.
@rhys the important bits for me are:
Most places I saw results of had a majority voting for centre/left rather leaning right
Whilst reform did we they are still trending lower.
Time and tactical voting will, I think, likely see reform with a fair number of seats but nowhere near power.
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@rhys the important bits for me are:
Most places I saw results of had a majority voting for centre/left rather leaning right
Whilst reform did we they are still trending lower.
Time and tactical voting will, I think, likely see reform with a fair number of seats but nowhere near power.
@kigelia I mostly agree, but I think we'll have to get used to them being a more permanent presence in our legislatures. That has a softer but still significant impact on things — through national discourse, how Commons/Senedd debates go, how committee functions work etc.
I haven't put proper shape around my thoughts yet but I think we're heading back to the sort of hostile, black-and-white politics of the Brexit/Boris era.
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@kigelia I mostly agree, but I think we'll have to get used to them being a more permanent presence in our legislatures. That has a softer but still significant impact on things — through national discourse, how Commons/Senedd debates go, how committee functions work etc.
I haven't put proper shape around my thoughts yet but I think we're heading back to the sort of hostile, black-and-white politics of the Brexit/Boris era.
@rhys I do wonder if this might push labour towards using their majority to push some form of Proportional Representation?
I suspect not and I still fear that we will have to put up with the hellscape of a reform government before something more sensible takes over.
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@rhys I do wonder if this might push labour towards using their majority to push some form of Proportional Representation?
I suspect not and I still fear that we will have to put up with the hellscape of a reform government before something more sensible takes over.
@kigelia Lots of folks are suggesting it. I'm not opposed to it in principle — Wales's new PR system is fantastic — but it'd be incredibly hard to do correctly with Westminster.
It has its flaws, but it'd change how we govern ourselves pretty radically, with us absent the sort of large majorities and strong governments we're used to — but it'd lock populists out of power while still giving smaller parties a voice, and it'd encourage a better Parliamentary model for government, imv.
