Oh good grief, this summary is both farcical and tragic: also, Trump has fucked air travel for at least the next two years, never mind automobiles and logistics.
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@cstross really does not change the fact that there never was any way to "win" this Iran War. You just have to look at this size, terrain, population layout of Iran compared to Iraq 2003 to get an idea of what sort of invasion force would have been necessary.
And there aren't any neighbors to Iran eager to become an invasion staging area.
So ... Iran will win. Period. They'll get bombed and stuff, and then ... they'll win.
@isaackuo @cstross The US victory conditions are for the Islamic Republic to go away. (US elite consensus that it's illegitimate, generational offense at daring to claim ownership of oil, etc.) They don't need to be Napoleon and be lauded as a conqueror.
Take a look at Iran on Google Maps; switch on the traffic.
Sparse transportation network, very concentrated; single export economy.
Think kinetic sanctions; blow up the ability to export oil and the roads over the mountains. Mine the ports.
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@isaackuo @cstross The US victory conditions are for the Islamic Republic to go away. (US elite consensus that it's illegitimate, generational offense at daring to claim ownership of oil, etc.) They don't need to be Napoleon and be lauded as a conqueror.
Take a look at Iran on Google Maps; switch on the traffic.
Sparse transportation network, very concentrated; single export economy.
Think kinetic sanctions; blow up the ability to export oil and the roads over the mountains. Mine the ports.
@isaackuo @cstross Is this a big bundle of war crimes before they start bombing power plants? Yes. The whole thing is illegitimate per the defunct post-war order.
Does anyone in the US administration care at all? No. (Many are actively in favor.)
Can the US do it? This is one of the things you can do with air supremacy.
Will it work?
It could; starving people are docile, but people who know they're going to starve are not. (Not that this is going to save anybody.)
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@isaackuo @cstross Is this a big bundle of war crimes before they start bombing power plants? Yes. The whole thing is illegitimate per the defunct post-war order.
Does anyone in the US administration care at all? No. (Many are actively in favor.)
Can the US do it? This is one of the things you can do with air supremacy.
Will it work?
It could; starving people are docile, but people who know they're going to starve are not. (Not that this is going to save anybody.)
@isaackuo @cstross Does the current "supply chain shock" scenario go flying out the window singing strange names in unpronouncable tongues once anybody starts figuring out that the supply of fossil carbon from the Gulf is now indefinitely impaired? (It's not like US fossil carbon producers mind the current prices. It's not like elites notice food prices.)
It sure does; that's "some other global economy, try again later" for prognostication. Far too many pieces no one can predict.
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@isaackuo @cstross Is this a big bundle of war crimes before they start bombing power plants? Yes. The whole thing is illegitimate per the defunct post-war order.
Does anyone in the US administration care at all? No. (Many are actively in favor.)
Can the US do it? This is one of the things you can do with air supremacy.
Will it work?
It could; starving people are docile, but people who know they're going to starve are not. (Not that this is going to save anybody.)
@graydon @cstross Okay, but how does this actually make the Iranian regime go away?
Yeah, starving people may be docile, but this would help whoever's already in power.
Unless you have a full on invasion force, I see "regime change" as a political struggle. And Trump's hurting, not helping, political support for the Iranian opposition.
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@isaackuo @cstross Does the current "supply chain shock" scenario go flying out the window singing strange names in unpronouncable tongues once anybody starts figuring out that the supply of fossil carbon from the Gulf is now indefinitely impaired? (It's not like US fossil carbon producers mind the current prices. It's not like elites notice food prices.)
It sure does; that's "some other global economy, try again later" for prognostication. Far too many pieces no one can predict.
@isaackuo @cstross Is the US military going to collectively mutiny over being ordered to commit overt genocide in Iran?
Doesn't seem likely.
Is is getting on for being a really good idea to avoid recreational travel? I would say so.
The Angry Weather would have dragged us out of the domain of preference into the domain of necessity soon enough; this looks like getting dragged firmly into necessity a little early, as planetary scales go.
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@graydon @cstross Okay, but how does this actually make the Iranian regime go away?
Yeah, starving people may be docile, but this would help whoever's already in power.
Unless you have a full on invasion force, I see "regime change" as a political struggle. And Trump's hurting, not helping, political support for the Iranian opposition.
@isaackuo @cstross It takes a minimum economy to maintain a regime. It needs radios and the ability to manufacture small arms ammunition and keep records. If you crash an economy hard enough and external support isn't available (no sufficient transport network over those mountain passes before they get mined), it stops being able to have a government.
It's not even a little bit hard to imagine this administration deciding that's the plan.
Much better if they don't, but.
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@isaackuo @cstross It takes a minimum economy to maintain a regime. It needs radios and the ability to manufacture small arms ammunition and keep records. If you crash an economy hard enough and external support isn't available (no sufficient transport network over those mountain passes before they get mined), it stops being able to have a government.
It's not even a little bit hard to imagine this administration deciding that's the plan.
Much better if they don't, but.
@graydon @cstross Okay, I understand that as a theory, but I don't see how that would work in practice.
It's hard to imagine being bombed back into the Stone Age more than the Taliban, and ... well, we saw how that worked out.
And it's not like the Taliban was the darling of external helping superpowers or anything.
And the terrain was - oops - yeah, similar to much of Iran. And the region - oh yeah, right next door.
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@graydon @cstross Okay, I understand that as a theory, but I don't see how that would work in practice.
It's hard to imagine being bombed back into the Stone Age more than the Taliban, and ... well, we saw how that worked out.
And it's not like the Taliban was the darling of external helping superpowers or anything.
And the terrain was - oops - yeah, similar to much of Iran. And the region - oh yeah, right next door.
@graydon @cstross And that was WITH a huge invasion force, as well as pretty powerful warlords and stuff helping on the ground.
... Annnnnd we still lost. It's not like the locals liked the Taliban, they just had a (correct) expectation that the Taliban would stick around longer than the Americans.
And that was that. Yippee.
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@NohatCoder @cstross driven by Hegseth and/or Trump himself.
But then, they were expecting Iran to surrender within the first few hours, or maybe days, so who knows?
Anyway, USS Ford having clogged toilets had an "effect" on the viability of F-35 round the clock bombing of Iran anyway.
These are things which COULD have been ... I dunno ... PLANNED about and for. But Hegseth and Trump are just so stupid.
@isaackuo @cstross Well, something in Iranian possession is clearly at least somewhat capable of targeting US planes. It is likely that the systems have been modified throughout the years, it is also quite likely that there are quite a few "knobs" one can turn in order to adjust what kind of radar signature the systems should look for. A lot of modern stealth really only defeats the defaults configuration.
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RE: https://infosec.exchange/@bontchev/116271481696841313
Oh good grief, this summary is both farcical and tragic: also, Trump has fucked air travel for at least the next two years, never mind automobiles and logistics. The supply chain shock will get as bad as 2022 within a couple of months—then keep getting worse.
I'm reading the article, agog, but I don't understand any of this paragraph, and I would like to:
"Its precise location was then revealed to the entire internet by a sailor who went jogging on deck with Strava running. Iran’s calling B7."Strava running?
B7?Clarifications welcome.
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I'm reading the article, agog, but I don't understand any of this paragraph, and I would like to:
"Its precise location was then revealed to the entire internet by a sailor who went jogging on deck with Strava running. Iran’s calling B7."Strava running?
B7?Clarifications welcome.
@Edelruth Strava is a GPS-enabled exercise tracking app. It identified the ship's position because the sailor was running laps of the flight deck.
B7 is *I assume* a snarky joke riffing on the game "Battleships".
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@graydon @cstross Okay, I understand that as a theory, but I don't see how that would work in practice.
It's hard to imagine being bombed back into the Stone Age more than the Taliban, and ... well, we saw how that worked out.
And it's not like the Taliban was the darling of external helping superpowers or anything.
And the terrain was - oops - yeah, similar to much of Iran. And the region - oh yeah, right next door.
@isaackuo @cstross The US adventure in Afghanistan was undertaken while trying to do nation-building and while following the laws of war. (the much-complained about JAG representatives checking legitimacy of airstrike targets, etc.) It was seen as a fight.
If you don't do that and bomb power plants, food stocks, oil refineries, water infrastructure, etc. with specific genocidal intent, you get different results. There's a circulating narrative around "could have won if" about this approach.
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@isaackuo @cstross The US adventure in Afghanistan was undertaken while trying to do nation-building and while following the laws of war. (the much-complained about JAG representatives checking legitimacy of airstrike targets, etc.) It was seen as a fight.
If you don't do that and bomb power plants, food stocks, oil refineries, water infrastructure, etc. with specific genocidal intent, you get different results. There's a circulating narrative around "could have won if" about this approach.
@isaackuo @cstross There's also the definite problem that everyone making decisions on both sides is incapable of doing a quantitative analysis. (They may have access to such analysis; it might be quite good, even. That doesn't mean they have any ability to believe it or to incorporate it into their understanding.)
Something does not have to have a high probability of success to be adopted as a strategic goal; it has to feel right to these specific terrible people.
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RE: https://infosec.exchange/@bontchev/116271481696841313
Oh good grief, this summary is both farcical and tragic: also, Trump has fucked air travel for at least the next two years, never mind automobiles and logistics. The supply chain shock will get as bad as 2022 within a couple of months—then keep getting worse.
@cstross on one level Trump has done more for Open Source software and renewable energy in a few months than the Democrats did in years. Nothing like being a clueless despot for making people think about what they buy and how they do things...
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RE: https://infosec.exchange/@bontchev/116271481696841313
Oh good grief, this summary is both farcical and tragic: also, Trump has fucked air travel for at least the next two years, never mind automobiles and logistics. The supply chain shock will get as bad as 2022 within a couple of months—then keep getting worse.
@cstross Our future is in the hands of a greedy, self-absorbed madman. Frightening.
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@isaackuo @cstross Well, something in Iranian possession is clearly at least somewhat capable of targeting US planes. It is likely that the systems have been modified throughout the years, it is also quite likely that there are quite a few "knobs" one can turn in order to adjust what kind of radar signature the systems should look for. A lot of modern stealth really only defeats the defaults configuration.
@NohatCoder @cstross Iran does indeed have a wide range of SAM systems, including some hopelessly outdated stuff but also including systems introduced within the last ten years.
Anyway, defeating stealth is not as simple as turning a knob. It's low level physics that extremely little signal is reflected back to the radar. But it's also physics that stealth aircraft still can be detected and tracked by radar at very short range.
And there are IR/optical SAM systems which don't rely on radar.
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@isaackuo @cstross The US adventure in Afghanistan was undertaken while trying to do nation-building and while following the laws of war. (the much-complained about JAG representatives checking legitimacy of airstrike targets, etc.) It was seen as a fight.
If you don't do that and bomb power plants, food stocks, oil refineries, water infrastructure, etc. with specific genocidal intent, you get different results. There's a circulating narrative around "could have won if" about this approach.
@graydon @cstross Well, I can certainly believe that various people who are stupid (if not AS stupid as Trump) wishfully believing in that sort of genocidal theory.
I just don't think it would actually work.
I mean, of course the sort of people who would fall for this sort of theory tend to not be the most stable minds to begin with...
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@NohatCoder @cstross Iran does indeed have a wide range of SAM systems, including some hopelessly outdated stuff but also including systems introduced within the last ten years.
Anyway, defeating stealth is not as simple as turning a knob. It's low level physics that extremely little signal is reflected back to the radar. But it's also physics that stealth aircraft still can be detected and tracked by radar at very short range.
And there are IR/optical SAM systems which don't rely on radar.
@NohatCoder @cstross In particular, older IR missiles depended on the target being hot compared to the background noise, to be able to detect/track the target.
But more modern IR missiles just need the target to be different from the background in at least one of two different wavelengths. It's like color vision where the target just needs to be a different color or brightness than the background.
Stealth aircraft tend to try and reduce IR signature by mixing in ambient air to the exhaust, but
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@NohatCoder @cstross In particular, older IR missiles depended on the target being hot compared to the background noise, to be able to detect/track the target.
But more modern IR missiles just need the target to be different from the background in at least one of two different wavelengths. It's like color vision where the target just needs to be a different color or brightness than the background.
Stealth aircraft tend to try and reduce IR signature by mixing in ambient air to the exhaust, but
@NohatCoder @cstross this is just plain less effective against more modern IR/optical missiles. Against 1970s era IR missiles? Sure. Against 2010s era IR missiles? Probably no effect whatsoever.
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@graydon @cstross Well, I can certainly believe that various people who are stupid (if not AS stupid as Trump) wishfully believing in that sort of genocidal theory.
I just don't think it would actually work.
I mean, of course the sort of people who would fall for this sort of theory tend to not be the most stable minds to begin with...
@isaackuo @cstross Which is kinda the problem; someone sensible won't do this even if they're certain it will work because it affects everyone's planning for centuries thereafter, and the cost of that is greater than any present gain can possibly be.
That's different from saying that it won't be tried, and there is certainly both a profit motive and a structural desire for revenge involved.
(Oil has an extraction price; this gets the commodity price much higher than the extraction price.)
